Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Major breakouts for UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities are likely to outperform in the months/years ahead.</li>
<li>We continue to recommend adding exposure to China/Hong Kong, and to add exposure/remain overweight Europe and the UK; these remain our favorite areas to invest in the year ahead.</li>
<li>The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China make up the majority of today's individual stock buy recommendations. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary Sectors are all bullish and highlighted today -- add exposure.</li>
</ul>


Major breakouts for UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities are likely to outperform in the months/years ahead.
We continue to recommend adding exposure to China/Hong Kong, and to add exposure/remain overweight Europe and the UK; these remain our favorite areas to invest in the year ahead.
The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China make up the majority of today's individual stock buy recommendations. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary Sectors are all bullish and highlighted today -- add exposure.


UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50 Breaking Out; Non-U.S. Outperformance to Continue, Buys in Cyclicals

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China's loan prime rates have held steady for a fifth month, with 1Y and 5Y benchmarks at 3.65% and 4.30%, respectively.</li>
<li>We expect to see a 15bp cut to the 5Y LPR as early as Feb. 20, in view of extremely weak domestic demand.</li>
<li>Even that may not be enough. Infrastructure spending will have to carry the load, fueled by a surge in local government bond issuance.</li>
</ul>


China's loan prime rates have held steady for a fifth month, with 1Y and 5Y benchmarks at 3.65% and 4.30%, respectively.
We expect to see a 15bp cut to the 5Y LPR as early as Feb. 20, in view of extremely weak domestic demand.
Even that may not be enough. Infrastructure spending will have to carry the load, fueled by a surge in local government bond issuance.


China Macro: Loan Prime Rates Unchanged in Jan; Easing Bias Remains

<ul>
<li>Chinese equity vol has been high over the last few months with extreme market moves on a number of headlines but is starting to calm down</li>
<li>US equity volatility continues to screen cheap despite calls for a challenging year and likely recession</li>
<li>We consider 2 relative vol trades to play a narrowing of the spread</li>
</ul>


Chinese equity vol has been high over the last few months with extreme market moves on a number of headlines but is starting to calm down
US equity volatility continues to screen cheap despite calls for a challenging year and likely recession
We consider 2 relative vol trades to play a narrowing of the spread


EQD | HSI Index Vs SPX Index: Sell Chinese Equity Vol to Buy US Equity Vol

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50 Breaking Out; Non-U.S. Outperformance to Continue, Buys in Cyclicals

Recent major breakouts for the FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities...

Vermilion Research

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

China Macro: Loan Prime Rates Unchanged in Jan; Easing Bias Remains

China's LPRs have held steady, but we believe a cut to the mortgage benchmark is imminent. A recovery in home prices may prove elusive. Debt-fueled...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

EQD | HSI Index Vs SPX Index: Sell Chinese Equity Vol to Buy US Equity Vol

We consider the volatility outlook for Chinese equities versus those in the US. We identify two relative value volatility spreads to monetise our...

Simon Harris