Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Change in strategy by the Chinese authorities mean this is more than a trade</li>
<li>Sentiment, valuations and positioning are still supportive despite the rally</li>
<li>Overbought conditions in the very short-term and the technical picture is mixed </li>
</ul>


Change in strategy by the Chinese authorities mean this is more than a trade
Sentiment, valuations and positioning are still supportive despite the rally
Overbought conditions in the very short-term and the technical picture is mixed 


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX</li>
<li>Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.</li>
<li>In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months</li>
</ul>


Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX
Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.
In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months


U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

<ul>
<li>A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing</li>
<li>Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors</li>
<li>Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio</li>
</ul>


A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing
Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors
Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio


September Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>China announces a barrage of  fiscal and monetary stimulus plans</li>
<li>New LDP leader and Japan Prime Minister impacts the markets</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
China announces a barrage of  fiscal and monetary stimulus plans
New LDP leader and Japan Prime Minister impacts the markets


Overview #10 -China Knocks It Out of the Park

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>While the worst-performing stocks in 2023 have gone down by an average of 17.6% YTD, their pick-up in the last month is significant at 19.9%. </li>
<li>The cut in US interest rate and the Chinese government's stimulus measures will benefit the HSI, providing room for shifting position from heavily overweighted names to underweighted.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning (2331 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> are the key "dogs" in last year that are worth a look. </li>
</ul>


While the worst-performing stocks in 2023 have gone down by an average of 17.6% YTD, their pick-up in the last month is significant at 19.9%. 
The cut in US interest rate and the Chinese government's stimulus measures will benefit the HSI, providing room for shifting position from heavily overweighted names to underweighted.

Li Ning (2331 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) are the key "dogs" in last year that are worth a look. 


China & HK Strategy: Time for The "Dogs" To Revenge?

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

Examining the Bear Case for China

Chinese authorities shift strategy , and while sentiment and valuations support the rally, in short-term there are overbought conditions and a...

Rikki Malik

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives. Actionable Themes: Real Estate, Utilities, Telecommunications, Energy,...

Vermilion Research

September Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review overall market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and substractions in the thematic portfolio.

Rikki Malik

Overview #10 -China Knocks It Out of the Park

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the implications of the China stumulus package and Japan's...

Rikki Malik

China & HK Strategy: Time for The "Dogs" To Revenge?

The "Dogs" surged more significantly than the HSI in the last two days. On average, their share price rose by 10.6%, outperforming the Index by...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Examining the Bear Case for China

​Chinese authorities shift strategy , and while sentiment and valuations support the rally, in short-term there are overbought conditions and a...

Rikki Malik

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives. Actionable Themes: Real Estate, Utilities, Telecommunications, Energy,...

Vermilion Research

September Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review overall market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and substractions in the thematic portfolio.

Rikki Malik

Overview #10 -China Knocks It Out of the Park

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the implications of the China stumulus package and Japan's...

Rikki Malik

China & HK Strategy: Time for The "Dogs" To Revenge?

The "Dogs" surged more significantly than the HSI in the last two days. On average, their share price rose by 10.6%, outperforming the Index by...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chinese authorities shift strategy , and while sentiment and valuations support the rally, in short-term there are overbought conditions and a...