Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There is renewed interest in HDFC Bank given potential for stock index re-balancing as well as an acquisition for one of its subsidiaries </li>
<li>The story with HDFC Bank is strong regardless of these new ancillary positives, where growth is incredibly stable, and credit metrics shine</li>
<li>We remind that the amalgamation of HDFC Finance remains new, and gains are still not fully reflected, but a look at costs/assets shows progress</li>
</ul>


There is renewed interest in HDFC Bank given potential for stock index re-balancing as well as an acquisition for one of its subsidiaries 
The story with HDFC Bank is strong regardless of these new ancillary positives, where growth is incredibly stable, and credit metrics shine
We remind that the amalgamation of HDFC Finance remains new, and gains are still not fully reflected, but a look at costs/assets shows progress


HDFC Bank - Rebalancing & MUFG Acquisition Benefit, Ongoing NPL Stability & Profit Strength

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>HDFC Bank results to FYE24 are improving and we retain it as a buy, with pre-provision returns improving slightly QoQ and best in peer group NPL ratio and coverage</li>
<li>Bank of Baroda is our core value Indian bank pick, for its undemanding valuations, healthy ROE and potential for NPL improvements</li>
<li>Bandhan bank is a potential contrarian pick for its value attributes; we are cautious on State Bank of India for its delinquency risks, low core capital ratio </li>
</ul>


HDFC Bank results to FYE24 are improving and we retain it as a buy, with pre-provision returns improving slightly QoQ and best in peer group NPL ratio and coverage
Bank of Baroda is our core value Indian bank pick, for its undemanding valuations, healthy ROE and potential for NPL improvements
Bandhan bank is a potential contrarian pick for its value attributes; we are cautious on State Bank of India for its delinquency risks, low core capital ratio 


Indian Banks Screener FYE24, Part 1: We like Quality Name HDFC Bank, Baroda Is the Value Pick

<ul>
<li>Canara Bank has seen stunning profit expansion over the past several years </li>
<li>Lower NPLs can drive lower credit costs to support profit expansion further</li>
<li>ROE moved from 11.7% to 17.3% over the past several years</li>
</ul>


Canara Bank has seen stunning profit expansion over the past several years 
Lower NPLs can drive lower credit costs to support profit expansion further
ROE moved from 11.7% to 17.3% over the past several years


Canara Bank - Radically Lower NPLs and Sharply Expanding Net Profit

Equity Research Analyst - Long-Short

Raj S, CA, CFA

Artoval Advisors

Art’o’val stands for Art of Valuation. Artoval Advisors LLP is a professionally run advisory firm catering to various financial advisory services including Valuation, Investment Research, Training, Accounting, CFO Services and other ancillary services.

We are passionate about what we do and strongly believe in working with our clients as their extended teams. With Artoval Advisors as their trusted partner, our clients find it easy to achieve efficiency in service delivery without compromising on quality.

True Art of Valuation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> has been the most successful bank in India over the last two decades, delivering best-in-class performance consistently; Things changed drastically with the merger with HDFC Ltd.</li>
<li>The negatives outweigh the positives in the near-term from the merger; the synergies, which are significant, are long-term in nature and hence would take time to play out.</li>
<li>We remain long-term believers, but it is a "Short" in the short-term as we expect further -20% correction in valuations</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has been the most successful bank in India over the last two decades, delivering best-in-class performance consistently; Things changed drastically with the merger with HDFC Ltd.
The negatives outweigh the positives in the near-term from the merger; the synergies, which are significant, are long-term in nature and hence would take time to play out.
We remain long-term believers, but it is a "Short" in the short-term as we expect further -20% correction in valuations


HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Initiating Coverage – Long Term Compounder; But "Short" For Now

IDFC First Bank Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idfc-first-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26934:1" rel="noopener">IDFC First Bank Limited (IDFCBK IN)</a>  has built a banking franchise that holds the best promise among the mid-sized banks in India for long-run outperformance.</li>
<li>A high-yielding and retail-oriented loan book, track record of pristine asset quality, superior funding profile boosting best-in-class retail deposit base, and incrementally improving unit economics.</li>
<li>We value the stock as a long-term Buy, with 35% upside in near-term, as the bank continues to realize the benefits of its increasing scale on its earnings profile.</li>
</ul>



IDFC First Bank Limited (IDFCBK IN)  has built a banking franchise that holds the best promise among the mid-sized banks in India for long-run outperformance.
A high-yielding and retail-oriented loan book, track record of pristine asset quality, superior funding profile boosting best-in-class retail deposit base, and incrementally improving unit economics.
We value the stock as a long-term Buy, with 35% upside in near-term, as the bank continues to realize the benefits of its increasing scale on its earnings profile.


2024 High Conviction Idea: IDFCBK IN: Best-In-Class Midsize Bank in India; Long-Term Performance

India

IndusInd Bank Limited is a Mumbai-based Indian new generation bank established in 1994. The Bank provides a range of banking and financial services including  wholesale banking, credit monitoring, risk management, tele-banking, investment banking and commercial lending. IndusInd Bank operates branches throughout India as well as an office in Dubai and London.

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Indusind Bank (IIB IN)

HDFC Bank - Rebalancing & MUFG Acquisition Benefit, Ongoing NPL Stability & Profit Strength

Renewed interest from a potential re-balancing, and a possible MUFG purchase for HDB. It shines on its own: stability, growth, credit metrics, with...

Daniel Tabbush

Indian Banks Screener FYE24, Part 1: We like Quality Name HDFC Bank, Baroda Is the Value Pick

We provide new 4QFYE24 data on 4 of the 10 Indian banks that have reported in our enlarged peer group; we rate HDFC Bank a buy, as well as Baroda...

Victor Galliano

Canara Bank - Radically Lower NPLs and Sharply Expanding Net Profit

Radically lower NPLs and sharply higher net profit can continue with benign credit costs, especially as Loss Loans are down a lot. ROE and ROA are...

Daniel Tabbush

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Initiating Coverage – Long Term Compounder; But "Short" For Now

HDFC Bank has been the most successful bank in India for long, but things changed drastically with the merger with HDFC Ltd. The negatives outweigh...

Raj S, CA, CFA

2024 High Conviction Idea: IDFCBK IN: Best-In-Class Midsize Bank in India; Long-Term Performance

Outlook on IDFC First Bank's profitability and market valuation is moving towards the top quadrant consisting of the best banking peers in India,...

Raj S, CA, CFA

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