Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a> results are most interesting, like with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a> , for what they show on specific regions</li>
<li>STAN reports in its HK region credit costs rising to USD89m in 1Q25 fromUSD39m YoY. This is now 41% of group credit costs from 22% YoY</li>
<li>Grade 12 loans are of low quality, not yet NPL. These are up 78% YoY and similar rise QoQ. There is no clear geo detail on this high delta</li>
</ul>



Standard Chartered (STAN LN) results are most interesting, like with HSBC Holdings (5 HK) , for what they show on specific regions
STAN reports in its HK region credit costs rising to USD89m in 1Q25 fromUSD39m YoY. This is now 41% of group credit costs from 22% YoY
Grade 12 loans are of low quality, not yet NPL. These are up 78% YoY and similar rise QoQ. There is no clear geo detail on this high delta


STAN - Window on HK Worsening, but Also Group Grade 12 Loans up 78% YoY

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows of Alibaba, TraHK HSI ETF, Tencent, Meituan, HSCEI ETF.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows of Alibaba, TraHK HSI ETF, Tencent, Meituan, HSCEI ETF.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (April): US$22bn Inflows

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>Statistics supported "Sell in May, go away" for the HSI. Since 2013, the average return for May is -2%, and is negative in 8 out of the last 12 years.</li>
<li>On average, May is the worst month since 2020, too. This even eclipsed the month of Oct, which is widely believed to be normally the worst month.</li>
<li>If a weak May happens, the heavily weighted yet strongly performed constituents like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> are to suffer. </li>
</ul>


Statistics supported "Sell in May, go away" for the HSI. Since 2013, the average return for May is -2%, and is negative in 8 out of the last 12 years.
On average, May is the worst month since 2020, too. This even eclipsed the month of Oct, which is widely believed to be normally the worst month.
If a weak May happens, the heavily weighted yet strongly performed constituents like BYD (1211 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), and Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) are to suffer. 


HK Strategy: Sell in May, Go Away? The History Says Yes!

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the flow expectations for the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect no index changes for June 2025 but we estimate there to be US$470mn in one-way flows which translates to a turnover of 4.3%.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
In this insight, we take a look at the flow expectations for the June 2025 index rebal event.
We expect no index changes for June 2025 but we estimate there to be US$470mn in one-way flows which translates to a turnover of 4.3%.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Jun25: US$470mn One-Way Flows Expected

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>GDP /: China’s first-quarter GDP jumps 5.4% ahead of tariff storm</li><li>Hong Kong /: Trade war clouds Hong Kong’s future as China’s global gateway</li><li>Banks /In Depth: Chinese banks chase opportunities overseas amid struggles at home</li></ul>

GDP /: China’s first-quarter GDP jumps 5.4% ahead of tariff stormHong Kong /: Trade war clouds Hong Kong’s future as China’s global gatewayBanks /In Depth: Chinese banks chase opportunities overseas amid struggles at home

CX Daily: China’s First-Quarter GDP Jumps 5.4% Ahead of Tariff Storm 

China

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund underwriting, foreign currency settlement, and other services. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Price Gauge
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ICBC (H) (1398 HK)

STAN - Window on HK Worsening, but Also Group Grade 12 Loans up 78% YoY

Standard Chartered shows significant deterioration in quarterly credit costs, worsening in Hong Kong region credit costs, and in Grade 12 loans

Daniel Tabbush

Hong Kong Connect Flows (April): US$22bn Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for April and highlighted flows for Alibaba, TraHK HSI ETF, Tencent, Meituan, HSCEI ETF.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Strategy: Sell in May, Go Away? The History Says Yes!

Statistics show "Sell in May, go away" holds true for HSI with negative returns in May since 2013, making it the worst one, even surpassing Oct....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Jun25: US$470mn One-Way Flows Expected

Our index change expectations remain the same since mid-March 2025. We expect the ADDs/DELs and indicative weights to be publicly confirmed on 16th...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

CX Daily: China’s First-Quarter GDP Jumps 5.4% Ahead of Tariff Storm

GDP /: China’s first-quarter GDP jumps 5.4% ahead of tariff storm Hong Kong /: Trade war clouds Hong Kong’s future as China’s global gateway Banks...

Caixin Global

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

STAN - Window on HK Worsening, but Also Group Grade 12 Loans up 78% YoY

Standard Chartered shows significant deterioration in quarterly credit costs, worsening in Hong Kong region credit costs, and in Grade 12 loans

Daniel Tabbush

Hong Kong Connect Flows (April): US$22bn Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for April and highlighted flows for Alibaba, TraHK HSI ETF, Tencent, Meituan, HSCEI ETF.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Strategy: Sell in May, Go Away? The History Says Yes!

​Statistics show "Sell in May, go away" holds true for HSI with negative returns in May since 2013, making it the worst one, even surpassing Oct....

Osbert Tang, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Jun25: US$470mn One-Way Flows Expected

Our index change expectations remain the same since mid-March 2025. We expect the ADDs/DELs and indicative weights to be publicly confirmed on 16th...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

CX Daily: China’s First-Quarter GDP Jumps 5.4% Ahead of Tariff Storm

GDP /: China’s first-quarter GDP jumps 5.4% ahead of tariff storm Hong Kong /: Trade war clouds Hong Kong’s future as China’s global gateway Banks...

Caixin Global

Statistics show "Sell in May, go away" holds true for HSI with negative returns in May since 2013, making it the worst one, even surpassing Oct....