HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-junshi-bioscience-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27760:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK)</a> announced that it has terminated its PD-1 commercialization partnership with AstraZeneca. Lower-than-expected sales performance is seen as the key reason.</li>
<li>Junshi's commercialization team is the weakest among the domestic Top Four.As the FDA's attitude may have changed, the logic of exporting innovative domestic drugs to foreign markets could be shaken.</li>
<li>Given the poor financing environment,it's challenging for Junshi to afford large investment in R&amp;D and licensing deals by just relying on cash in hand and cashflow generating from commercialized products.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK) announced that it has terminated its PD-1 commercialization partnership with AstraZeneca. Lower-than-expected sales performance is seen as the key reason.
Junshi's commercialization team is the weakest among the domestic Top Four.As the FDA's attitude may have changed, the logic of exporting innovative domestic drugs to foreign markets could be shaken.
Given the poor financing environment,it's challenging for Junshi to afford large investment in R&amp;D and licensing deals by just relying on cash in hand and cashflow generating from commercialized products.


Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877.HK/688180.CH) - Behind the “break Up” with AstraZeneca

<ul>
<li>China attaches great importance to gene therapy and related products, which would be a leader of the third industrial revolution in biomedicine and have broad prospects for future development.</li>
<li>With obvious strength in this field,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genscript-biotech-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21041:1" rel="noopener">Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)</a>’s businesses are in line with the future trend and the outlook is also quite promising, indicating exponential growth potential in valuation.</li>
<li>However, the potential risks on deterioration of international relations and the concerns on CAR-T commercialization should not be neglected by investors.</li>
</ul>


China attaches great importance to gene therapy and related products, which would be a leader of the third industrial revolution in biomedicine and have broad prospects for future development.
With obvious strength in this field,Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)’s businesses are in line with the future trend and the outlook is also quite promising, indicating exponential growth potential in valuation.
However, the potential risks on deterioration of international relations and the concerns on CAR-T commercialization should not be neglected by investors.


Genscript Biotech (1548.HK) - The Strength and the Concerns

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We note inflows into Tencent, Xiaomi, CNOOC, and Kuaishou before the Christmas holiday. </li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We note inflows into Tencent, Xiaomi, CNOOC, and Kuaishou before the Christmas holiday. 


Hong Kong Connect Flows: Chinese Buying Tencent, Xiaomi, CNOOC and Kuaishou Before Xmas

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The “capital arbitrage” in domestic innovative drug industry would not be sustainable.</li>
<li>Based on data, the sales and profits of innovative drugs at present can hardly support the current valuation of pharmaceutical companies (or recover the high cost of license-in deals).</li>
<li>However, we are still highly bullish on China healthcare industry if seen from the <strong>big picture</strong>.</li>
</ul>


The “capital arbitrage” in domestic innovative drug industry would not be sustainable.
Based on data, the sales and profits of innovative drugs at present can hardly support the current valuation of pharmaceutical companies (or recover the high cost of license-in deals).
However, we are still highly bullish on China healthcare industry if seen from the big picture.


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.24)- Capital Arbitrage, Drug Commercial Results, Healthcare Big Picture

<ul>
<li>For development strategy, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphamab-oncology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28213:1" rel="noopener">Alphamab Co Ltd (9966 HK) </a>may lack the foundation of strategic certainty of expectation. It is also not sure about the commercialization performance of KN035 brought by Simcere.</li>
<li>Although the management’s thinking mode of business operation has improved, it still cannot dispel the doubts about whether the Company can catch up with top-level biopharmaceutical enterprises in the future.</li>
<li>Even with the concerns, it does not rule out that investors can long this stock at an undervalued or a reasonable price to get a good return.</li>
</ul>


For development strategy, Alphamab Co Ltd (9966 HK) may lack the foundation of strategic certainty of expectation. It is also not sure about the commercialization performance of KN035 brought by Simcere.
Although the management’s thinking mode of business operation has improved, it still cannot dispel the doubts about whether the Company can catch up with top-level biopharmaceutical enterprises in the future.
Even with the concerns, it does not rule out that investors can long this stock at an undervalued or a reasonable price to get a good return.


Alphamab Co Ltd (9966.HK) - Some Points Worth the Attention

China

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877.HK/688180.CH) - Behind the “break Up” with AstraZeneca

The insight analyzed Junshi in terms of the potential reasons behind the termination of PD-1 commercialization partnership with AstraZeneca, the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Genscript Biotech (1548.HK) - The Strength and the Concerns

This insight analyzed Genscript's three largest segments (life-science services and products, CDMO, cell therapy), strength in CGT, and concerns on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong Connect Flows: Chinese Buying Tencent, Xiaomi, CNOOC and Kuaishou Before Xmas

We highlight Hong Kong Connect inflows into Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK), Cnooc (883 HK) and Kuaishou (1024 HK), as well as outflows from...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.24)- Capital Arbitrage, Drug Commercial Results, Healthcare Big Picture

This insight analyzed the concerns on capital arbitrage in domestic innovative drugs, the unsatisfactory innovative drug commercial results,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Alphamab Co Ltd (9966.HK) - Some Points Worth the Attention

The article analyzed Alphamab Oncology in terms of its conservativeness on business operation and decision making in early stages, the concerns on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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