Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Tax credit increase from 25% to 35% (portion of investment deducted from taxable income), which becomes as impactful in $ as the direct subsidies or about $40bn. </li>
<li>The US is working hard to make Semi investments more attractive. Subsidies, loans and tax credits altogether now approach $150bn. </li>
<li>That could mitigate a little bit of TSMC price increase in Arizona. But it’s not massive. The impact of tax credits increase from 2% of revenue to 3%. </li>
</ul>


Tax credit increase from 25% to 35% (portion of investment deducted from taxable income), which becomes as impactful in $ as the direct subsidies or about $40bn. 
The US is working hard to make Semi investments more attractive. Subsidies, loans and tax credits altogether now approach $150bn. 
That could mitigate a little bit of TSMC price increase in Arizona. But it’s not massive. The impact of tax credits increase from 2% of revenue to 3%. 


US Congress’s Gift to Semiconductor Manufacturers: 35% Tax Credit on Investments

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Japan’s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP)</a> is currently developing a 2nm CPU named “MONAKA” (link). The CPU is planned to be manufactured by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a>.  </li>
<li>Rapidus has to deal with high technical barriers, tight timelines, heavy R&amp;D costs, market and profitability challenges.</li>
<li>Talent shortage in Japan: A lingering pain for the Semiconductor industry</li>
</ul>


Japan’s Fujitsu Ltd (6702 JP) is currently developing a 2nm CPU named “MONAKA” (link). The CPU is planned to be manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US).  
Rapidus has to deal with high technical barriers, tight timelines, heavy R&amp;D costs, market and profitability challenges.
Talent shortage in Japan: A lingering pain for the Semiconductor industry


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC's 2nm Market? We Think It's Too Early to Say (II)

<ul>
<li>US tightening the screws on Foreign-owned Semi production in China: Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC were exempted from import license. The risk of US removing Equipment license is known since 2022.</li>
<li>What’s the point? Negotiating tool in the ongoing US-China discussions? Increase uncertainty? Or maybe US unhappy about further Korean investments in China?   </li>
<li>Samsung has 35% of DRAM production in China, SK Hynix 40% of DRAM and NAND, TSMC a negligible 3% of total revenues. Samsung has kept upgrading capacity in China. </li>
</ul>


US tightening the screws on Foreign-owned Semi production in China: Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC were exempted from import license. The risk of US removing Equipment license is known since 2022.
What’s the point? Negotiating tool in the ongoing US-China discussions? Increase uncertainty? Or maybe US unhappy about further Korean investments in China?   
Samsung has 35% of DRAM production in China, SK Hynix 40% of DRAM and NAND, TSMC a negligible 3% of total revenues. Samsung has kept upgrading capacity in China. 


US Tightening the Screws on Sales of Semi Production Equipment to Foreign-Owned Fabs in China

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Cloud 2025 CapEx consensus increased 70% from January 2024 to the present day $365 billion</li>
<li>Google page views declined 8% since the launch of ChatGPT</li>
<li>Apart from the Mag7, Coatue is heavily focusing investment on companies involved in AI-required power delivery, AI software and AI semiconductors </li>
</ul>


Cloud 2025 CapEx consensus increased 70% from January 2024 to the present day $365 billion
Google page views declined 8% since the launch of ChatGPT
Apart from the Mag7, Coatue is heavily focusing investment on companies involved in AI-required power delivery, AI software and AI semiconductors 


Coatue Doubles Down On An AI Supercycle @ EMW 2025

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>TSMC’s Next Generation 2nm Node Gathers Momentum as Intel Lags Behind</li>
<li>TSMC’s Arizona Plant Ships First AI Chips — But Taiwan Remains Core to Packaging</li>
<li>MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026. </li>
</ul>


TSMC’s Next Generation 2nm Node Gathers Momentum as Intel Lags Behind
TSMC’s Arizona Plant Ships First AI Chips — But Taiwan Remains Core to Packaging
MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026. 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's 2nm Node to Generate Largest Revenue Ever; US Bottleneck in Adv Packaging

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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US Congress’s Gift to Semiconductor Manufacturers: 35% Tax Credit on Investments

US increases tax credit for semiconductor investments from 25% to 35%, as impactful as direct subsidies at about $40bn, part of $150bn in total...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC's 2nm Market? We Think It's Too Early to Say (II)

Fujitsu developing 2nm CPU "MONAKA" with TSMC. Rapidus is facing technical barriers, talent shortage in Japan's Semiconductor industry.

Patrick Liao

US Tightening the Screws on Sales of Semi Production Equipment to Foreign-Owned Fabs in China

US tightening restrictions on foreign-owned semiconductor production in China, exempting Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC from import licenses. Samsung and...

Nicolas Baratte

Coatue Doubles Down On An AI Supercycle @ EMW 2025

Apart from the Mag7, Coatue is heavily focusing investment on companies involved in AI-required power delivery, AI software and AI semiconductors

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's 2nm Node to Generate Largest Revenue Ever; US Bottleneck in Adv Packaging

TSMC's advancements in 2nm node technology outpace Intel, while Arizona plant ships AI chips and Taiwan remains central to packaging. MediaTek...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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US Congress’s Gift to Semiconductor Manufacturers: 35% Tax Credit on Investments

​US increases tax credit for semiconductor investments from 25% to 35%, as impactful as direct subsidies at about $40bn, part of $150bn in total...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Will Rapidus Threaten TSMC's 2nm Market? We Think It's Too Early to Say (II)

​Fujitsu developing 2nm CPU "MONAKA" with TSMC. Rapidus is facing technical barriers, talent shortage in Japan's Semiconductor industry.

Patrick Liao

US Tightening the Screws on Sales of Semi Production Equipment to Foreign-Owned Fabs in China

​US tightening restrictions on foreign-owned semiconductor production in China, exempting Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC from import licenses. Samsung and...

Nicolas Baratte

Coatue Doubles Down On An AI Supercycle @ EMW 2025

Apart from the Mag7, Coatue is heavily focusing investment on companies involved in AI-required power delivery, AI software and AI semiconductors

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's 2nm Node to Generate Largest Revenue Ever; US Bottleneck in Adv Packaging

​TSMC's advancements in 2nm node technology outpace Intel, while Arizona plant ships AI chips and Taiwan remains central to packaging. MediaTek...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

US increases tax credit for semiconductor investments from 25% to 35%, as impactful as direct subsidies at about $40bn, part of $150bn in total...

Fujitsu developing 2nm CPU "MONAKA" with TSMC. Rapidus is facing technical barriers, talent shortage in Japan's Semiconductor industry.

US tightening restrictions on foreign-owned semiconductor production in China, exempting Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC from import licenses. Samsung and...

TSMC's advancements in 2nm node technology outpace Intel, while Arizona plant ships AI chips and Taiwan remains central to packaging. MediaTek...