Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Semiconductor industry expected to grow by 10%</li><li>US semiconductor manufacturing expansion faces challenges</li><li>Trump and China agree to a 90-day pause on new tariffs, with uncertainty about future outcomes</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Semiconductor industry expected to grow by 10%US semiconductor manufacturing expansion faces challengesTrump and China agree to a 90-day pause on new tariffs, with uncertainty about future outcomesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 118: Weekly Update (Tariffs), AI Budget Spend, Semis and Saudi's

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a> recent revenues reports were good (April: up 22.2% MoM, and up 48.1% YoY) and its direct competitor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel (INTC US)</a> is starting to look less competitive.</li>
<li>According to a report from Reuters, Intel CFO David Zinsner revealed that some of the 18A prospects withdrew after trial production, leading to a lower-than-expected volume of committed demand.
</li>
<li>While Intel struggles, TSMC’s N2 technology is experiencing strong success, being adopted quickly by a wider range of mobile, HPC, AI customers. Our model suggests the stock can rally higher.</li>
</ul>



TSMC (2330 TT) recent revenues reports were good (April: up 22.2% MoM, and up 48.1% YoY) and its direct competitor Intel (INTC US) is starting to look less competitive.
According to a report from Reuters, Intel CFO David Zinsner revealed that some of the 18A prospects withdrew after trial production, leading to a lower-than-expected volume of committed demand.

While Intel struggles, TSMC’s N2 technology is experiencing strong success, being adopted quickly by a wider range of mobile, HPC, AI customers. Our model suggests the stock can rally higher.


TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook After Intel 18A Setback

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI </li>
<li>The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. </li>
<li>The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers</li>
</ul>


Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI 
The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. 
The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers


Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Global semiconductor sales for the month of March 2025 amounted to $55.9 billion, up 1.8% MoM and up 21.8% YoY</li>
<li>TSMC last week announced that revenue for the month of April amounted to NT$349.57 billion, up 22.2% MoM, up 48.1% YoY and a all time record monthly high</li>
<li>The latest monthly Taiwan semi revenues show little signs of a semi slowdown. Lagging edge remains sluggish, wafer inventories are still too high but leading edge continues to rule</li>
</ul>


Global semiconductor sales for the month of March 2025 amounted to $55.9 billion, up 1.8% MoM and up 21.8% YoY
TSMC last week announced that revenue for the month of April amounted to NT$349.57 billion, up 22.2% MoM, up 48.1% YoY and a all time record monthly high
The latest monthly Taiwan semi revenues show little signs of a semi slowdown. Lagging edge remains sluggish, wafer inventories are still too high but leading edge continues to rule


Key Indicator Updates: Semi Sales, WFE Forecast, Latest Taiwan Monthlies & A Blow Out April For TSMC

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a>’s 2nm process is said to be comparable to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>’s 18A technology.</li>
<li>It is reported that Intel has placed orders for TSMC’s 2nm capacity, as we previously highlighted, due to its timely availability.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, Intel continues to invest in its own manufacturing roadmap, targeting risk production of the 14A node around 2027.</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)’s 2nm process is said to be comparable to Intel Corp (INTC US)’s 18A technology.
It is reported that Intel has placed orders for TSMC’s 2nm capacity, as we previously highlighted, due to its timely availability.
Nonetheless, Intel continues to invest in its own manufacturing roadmap, targeting risk production of the 14A node around 2027.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Intel Appears to Have Delayed the Foundry Competition to 14A.

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Episode 118: Weekly Update (Tariffs), AI Budget Spend, Semis and Saudi's

The semiconductor industry is anticipated to grow by 10%, but US manufacturing expansion faces challenges and restrictions on Chinese chip makers,...

The Circuit

TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook After Intel 18A Setback

TSMC's recent strong revenue reports and its N2 technology gaining traction make it more attractive than Intel after the 18A setback. Our model...

Nico Rosti

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Key Indicator Updates: Semi Sales, WFE Forecast, Latest Taiwan Monthlies & A Blow Out April For TSMC

The latest monthly Taiwan semi revenues show little signs of a semi slowdown. Lagging edge remains sluggish, wafer inventories are still too high...

William Keating

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Intel Appears to Have Delayed the Foundry Competition to 14A.

TSMC's 2nm process rivals Intel's 18A technology, with Intel ordering capacity from TSMC while also investing in its own manufacturing roadmap.

Patrick Liao

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Episode 118: Weekly Update (Tariffs), AI Budget Spend, Semis and Saudi's

The semiconductor industry is anticipated to grow by 10%, but US manufacturing expansion faces challenges and restrictions on Chinese chip makers,...

The Circuit

TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook After Intel 18A Setback

​TSMC's recent strong revenue reports and its N2 technology gaining traction make it more attractive than Intel after the 18A setback. Our model...

Nico Rosti

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

​SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Key Indicator Updates: Semi Sales, WFE Forecast, Latest Taiwan Monthlies & A Blow Out April For TSMC

The latest monthly Taiwan semi revenues show little signs of a semi slowdown. Lagging edge remains sluggish, wafer inventories are still too high...

William Keating

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Intel Appears to Have Delayed the Foundry Competition to 14A.

​TSMC's 2nm process rivals Intel's 18A technology, with Intel ordering capacity from TSMC while also investing in its own manufacturing roadmap.

Patrick Liao

TSMC's recent strong revenue reports and its N2 technology gaining traction make it more attractive than Intel after the 18A setback. Our model...

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

TSMC's 2nm process rivals Intel's 18A technology, with Intel ordering capacity from TSMC while also investing in its own manufacturing roadmap.