Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>4Q24 Guidance: Sales will be US$26.1-26.9bn, up 13%; GM outlook will be 57-59%; and OPM outlook is 46.5-48.5%</li>
<li>AI revenue contribution will triple and reach mid-teens sales contribution this year. Almost every AI innovator cooperates with TSMC.</li>
<li>APT will grow above the corporate average in the next five years.GM is approaching the corporate average, but it's not the same currently.</li>
</ul>


4Q24 Guidance: Sales will be US$26.1-26.9bn, up 13%; GM outlook will be 57-59%; and OPM outlook is 46.5-48.5%
AI revenue contribution will triple and reach mid-teens sales contribution this year. Almost every AI innovator cooperates with TSMC.
APT will grow above the corporate average in the next five years.GM is approaching the corporate average, but it's not the same currently.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outgrowth; Co-Work with Almost AI Innovators.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Horizon Robotics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics</a> is looking to raise up to US$696m in its Hong Kong IPO. </li>
<li>Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.</li>
</ul>



Horizon Robotics is looking to raise up to US$696m in its Hong Kong IPO. 
Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.


Horizon Robotics IPO - Peers Are Down a Lot, Its Valuation Isn’t

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Samsung's foundry business is losing more customers to TSMC, who is perceived as lower risk.</li>
<li>TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up strong but plateauing, UMC lackluster, confirming 2 big trends.</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Nanya results miss; highlights weakness in non-AI demand.</li>
</ul>


Samsung's foundry business is losing more customers to TSMC, who is perceived as lower risk.
TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up strong but plateauing, UMC lackluster, confirming 2 big trends.
Memory Monitor: Nanya results miss; highlights weakness in non-AI demand.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Taking More Samsung Customers; Hon Hai Unveils Major AI Projects

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>AI demand will remain strong but is plateauing in terms of YoY growth. The rest of end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). TSMC and UMC monthly sales confirm this. </li>
<li>TSMC high growth plateau ~40% YoY: AI (Nvidia Broadcom, AMD), Intel, new smartphone chips. Comps will get harder early 2025. Valuations are high but not extreme: limited upside and downside.</li>
<li>UMC lackluster at ~6% YoY growth, reflecting lackluster end-markets from smartphone, Consumer Elec, PC, Auto &amp; Industrials. Average valuations; in need of an elusive catalyst.</li>
</ul>


AI demand will remain strong but is plateauing in terms of YoY growth. The rest of end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). TSMC and UMC monthly sales confirm this. 
TSMC high growth plateau ~40% YoY: AI (Nvidia Broadcom, AMD), Intel, new smartphone chips. Comps will get harder early 2025. Valuations are high but not extreme: limited upside and downside.
UMC lackluster at ~6% YoY growth, reflecting lackluster end-markets from smartphone, Consumer Elec, PC, Auto &amp; Industrials. Average valuations; in need of an elusive catalyst.


TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up Strong but Plateauing, UMC Lackluster, Confirming 2 Big Trends

<ul>
<li>For 2nm technology, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> should start <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> iPhone 17 production in the middle of 2025, most likely.  </li>
<li>TSMC's competitors, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> are running foundry business and keeping owning manufacturing business at the same time, which is contradictory to purely foundry business.</li>
<li>To making the advanced chip in the US, we consider the main main concern still the cost.</li>
</ul>


For 2nm technology, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) should start Apple (AAPL US) iPhone 17 production in the middle of 2025, most likely.  
TSMC's competitors, Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and Intel Corp (INTC US) are running foundry business and keeping owning manufacturing business at the same time, which is contradictory to purely foundry business.
To making the advanced chip in the US, we consider the main main concern still the cost.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Productivity and Profitability Are the Essential Competitiveness.

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outgrowth; Co-Work with Almost AI Innovators.

TSMC's 4Q24 guidance shows strong sales growth, with AI revenue set to triple and contribute significantly to overall sales. APT expected to...

Patrick Liao

Horizon Robotics IPO - Peers Are Down a Lot, Its Valuation Isn’t

Horizon Robotics is looking to raise up to US$696m in its Hong Kong IPO. We have looked at the company's past performance in our earlier notes, in...

Sumeet Singh

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Taking More Samsung Customers; Hon Hai Unveils Major AI Projects

Samsung's foundry business losing customers to TSMC due to perceived lower risk; TSMC and UMC sales trends confirm industry shifts, while Nanya...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up Strong but Plateauing, UMC Lackluster, Confirming 2 Big Trends

AI demand remains strong but YoY growth is plateauing. The rest of Tech end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). Sept. monthly...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Productivity and Profitability Are the Essential Competitiveness.

TSMC may start producing iPhone 17 with 2nm technology in mid-2025, while competitors Samsung and Intel face challenges with their mixed business...

Patrick Liao

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outgrowth; Co-Work with Almost AI Innovators.

​TSMC's 4Q24 guidance shows strong sales growth, with AI revenue set to triple and contribute significantly to overall sales. APT expected to...

Patrick Liao

Horizon Robotics IPO - Peers Are Down a Lot, Its Valuation Isn’t

Horizon Robotics is looking to raise up to US$696m in its Hong Kong IPO. We have looked at the company's past performance in our earlier notes, in...

Sumeet Singh

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Taking More Samsung Customers; Hon Hai Unveils Major AI Projects

​Samsung's foundry business losing customers to TSMC due to perceived lower risk; TSMC and UMC sales trends confirm industry shifts, while Nanya...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up Strong but Plateauing, UMC Lackluster, Confirming 2 Big Trends

AI demand remains strong but YoY growth is plateauing. The rest of Tech end-demand remains weak (Consumer, PC, Auto, Industrials). Sept. monthly...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): The Productivity and Profitability Are the Essential Competitiveness.

​TSMC may start producing iPhone 17 with 2nm technology in mid-2025, while competitors Samsung and Intel face challenges with their mixed business...

Patrick Liao

TSMC's 4Q24 guidance shows strong sales growth, with AI revenue set to triple and contribute significantly to overall sales. APT expected to...

Samsung's foundry business losing customers to TSMC due to perceived lower risk; TSMC and UMC sales trends confirm industry shifts, while Nanya...

TSMC may start producing iPhone 17 with 2nm technology in mid-2025, while competitors Samsung and Intel face challenges with their mixed business...