Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

India Independent Insight

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a> 's core cigarette portfolio is relatively inelastic to the current commodity inflation. With the reopening of offices and social events, volumes are likely to trend higher. </li>
<li>A renewed focus on FMCG is likely to aid volumes for the non-cigarette segment. </li>
<li>Valuations are in favor and we see limited scope for de-rating if not re-rating.</li>
</ul>

<ul>
<li>Our checks primary done over North of India suggest a stable to improving rural environment </li>
<li>There is a sense of aggression in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)</a> is well placed to grow volumes &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13101:1" rel="noopener">Nestle India (NEST IN)</a> is expected to be a steady performer. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dabur-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:242:1" rel="noopener">Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)'</a> s image at the distributor level is quite shocking and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marico-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16903:1" rel="noopener">Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)</a>'s products are more prone to volatility. </li>
</ul>

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

<p>EBITDA and PAT in line; cigarette volumes resilient - ITC’s 4QFY22 EBITDA and PAT growth came in line with our estimates.</p><p>Sales beat led by Agri business and Paperboards - ITC’s revenue grew 16.8% YoY to INR155.3b (est. INR138.4b) in 4QFY22.</p><p>Valuation and view - ITC’s re-rating would depend on sustained earnings growth going back to the high-teens levels witnessed in the first half of the last decade (at 18% CAGR) which had slowed down to 6.6% CAGR over the latter half of the decade.</p><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Nirmal Bang

A Relationship Beyond Broking

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>4QFY22 headline performance: ITC’s 4QFY22 standalone topline (adjusted for excise duty) was up 16.8% YoY at Rs155bn vs our est. of 21.9% YoY growth to Rs162bn.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>4QFY22 segmental performance: Cigarette revenue grew by 10% YoY to Rs64.4bn (vs our est. of Rs65.3bn), up ~12% on a two-year CAGR basis.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>FY22 performance: Standalone Revenue, EBITDA and APAT grew by 23.9%, 22% and 15.5%, respectively.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Axis Direct

<ul><li>ITC reported a healthy set of numbers in Q4FY22with Revenue of Rs 15,331Cr (our estimate – Rs16,205Cr), down 2.2%QoQ but up ~16.5% YoY, led by a strong 8% volume growth in Cigarettes (in line with our estimates).</li><li>Gross Margins at 52.5% was 132bps lower YoY on account of unprecedented RM inflation</li><li>Benign taxation, inexpensive valuations (20x FY24E EPS), 5% dividend yield makes us BUYers of the stock. Our TP is revised to Rs 295 (earlier Rs 280).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

India

ITC Limited, a member of BAT Group of UK, is a holding company, which has a diversified presence in Cigarettes, Hotels, Paperboards & Specialty Papers, Packaging, Agri Business, Packaged Foods & Confectionery, Branded Apparel, Greeting Cards and other FMCG products.

ITC Ltd - ITC IN

Description