'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p>Our best and worst pairing from Thursday's results is Leadframe specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-high-tec-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10289:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui High Tec (6966 JP)</a> and life-ending services business <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kamakura-shinsho-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24224:1" rel="noopener">Kamakura Shinsho (6184 JP)</a>  - for more see the DETAIL below. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/177/797/original/2020-12-11_05-57-52.png?1607633899" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="177797"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/177/800/original/2020-12-11_05-59-51.png?1607634003" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="177800"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics  </div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pairing from Thursday's results is Leadframe specialist Mitsui High Tec (6966 JP) and life-ending services business Kamakura Shinsho (6184 JP)  - for more see the DETAIL below. Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics  

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​10 Mitsui High-Tech, Kamakura S

<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/338/original/2020-09-11_06-10-01.png?1599772225" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158338"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/339/original/2020-09-11_06-11-10.png?1599772281" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158339"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts: Japan Analytics</div>
<strong>BEST &amp; WORST</strong> - As the pace of announcements for the January/April/July/October year-end cohort increases,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul (4384 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-dome-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6421:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Dome (9681 JP)</a> were the best and worst-scoring of the larger companies that reported yesterday. The former is aiming to bring commercial printing int to the digital age but is yet t achieve sustainable profitability. The latter is another 'activist trap'  struggling with the fallout from COVID-19.<hr>
</div><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p><strong>PERCENTAGES</strong> -<strong>53%</strong> of quarterly results, <strong>53%</strong> of annual forecasts/revisions and only <strong>29%</strong> of interim forecasts have negative Scores.<strong> 28%</strong> of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.</p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>32 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 34% Positive / 13% Neutral / 53% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change: </strong>-1.4 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -14.9% Quarter YoY / -5.1% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -2.6ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses</strong>: 28%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>17 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 35% Positive / 12% Neutral / 53% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 71% Positive / 0% Neutral / 29% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -1.3 points</li>
</ul></div>


• BEST &amp; WORST •
Source for all charts: Japan Analytics
BEST &amp; WORST - As the pace of announcements for the January/April/July/October year-end cohort increases,  Raksul (4384 JP) and Tokyo Dome (9681 JP) were the best and worst-scoring of the larger companies that reported yesterday. The former is aiming to bring commercial printing int to the digital age but is yet t achieve sustainable profitability. The latter is another 'activist trap'  struggling with the fallout from COVID-19.
DAILY STATSPERCENTAGES -53% of quarterly results, 53% of annual forecasts/revisions and only 29% of interim forecasts have negative Scores. 28% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.32 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 34% Positive / 13% Neutral / 53% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -1.4 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -14.9% Quarter YoY / -5.1% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.6ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 28%
17 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 35% Positive / 12% Neutral / 53% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 71% Positive / 0% Neutral / 29% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -1.3 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​10 - Sekisui House, Kobe Bussan, Japan Display, Kamakura Sh.

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/083/132/original/2019-03-25_18-58-11.png?1553507902" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="83132"></figure><p>Source: Japan Analytics</p>
</div><p>There are currently 241 listed Japanese companies that can be categorised as <strong>Internet</strong> businesses. Our classification overlaps with the TOPIX-33 <strong>Information &amp; Communication</strong> sub-Sector but is broader in that it encompasses all companies listed on all sections and exchanges but is also narrower in that we have <em>excluded </em><strong>Telecommunications </strong>(including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">S</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">oftbank Group (9984 JP)</a>) and <strong>Information Technology</strong> companies. We have adopted a 'quantamental' approach which covers the long-term and current trends for Japan's Internet Sector as a whole, as well as eight sub-Sectors or Peer Groups and the Sectors' leading companies by market capitalisation.  Our focus is exclusively on the locally-listed universe and is based on disclosed financial and market data. We do not provide any forecasts, other than the companies' own forecasts and we do not attempt to make any business model or strategic judgments. Our focus is purely on financial and market performance. We do not cover unlisted and defunct companies such as Livedoor and, therefore, there is implicit survivor bias in the data. </p><p>The broad themes that are developed in <strong>DETAIL</strong> below are grouped into six topics as follows: -</p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong> • SUMMARY • </strong></p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong> • FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW • </strong></p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong> • SCORING - RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS / RELATIVE PRICE • </strong></p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong> • RESULTS TRENDS • </strong></p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong> • VALUATION • </strong></p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RECOMMENDATIONS •</strong></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/083/206/original/2019-03-25_17-46-58.png?1553565764" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="83206"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>OVERVIEW</strong> - As will be covered in greater <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, Japan has failed to evolve a substantial Internet Sector and, in many business models, has been passed by global competitors including in the home market. Although Internet Sector revenues have grown steadily and now account for close to 1% of the total for all listed companies, operating margins have declined by half in the last seven years and are now only four percentage points higher than the market average. Accordingly, as measured by our <strong>Results &amp; Revision Score</strong>, the Sector is close to a twelve-year low. The market's response is an unchanged Sector weight in the market composite despite the addition of 111 new companies in the last six years, and a <strong>Relative Price Score</strong> that has moved in a narrow range over that period. <strong>The Sector averages disguise the weak business and market performance of a handful of Sector leaders as well as the overvaluation of the Sector's more successful business models, which is partly a result of a lack of alternatives. Despite the world's most significant Internet investor - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>'s Vision Fund - being based in Japan, this fund and other global investors in Internet business have been right to give Japan a 'pass'. </strong></p>


Source: Japan Analytics
There are currently 241 listed Japanese companies that can be categorised as Internet businesses. Our classification overlaps with the TOPIX-33 Information &amp; Communication sub-Sector but is broader in that it encompasses all companies listed on all sections and exchanges but is also narrower in that we have excluded Telecommunications (including Softbank Group (9984 JP)) and Information Technology companies. We have adopted a 'quantamental' approach which covers the long-term and current trends for Japan's Internet Sector as a whole, as well as eight sub-Sectors or Peer Groups and the Sectors' leading companies by market capitalisation.  Our focus is exclusively on the locally-listed universe and is based on disclosed financial and market data. We do not provide any forecasts, other than the companies' own forecasts and we do not attempt to make any business model or strategic judgments. Our focus is purely on financial and market performance. We do not cover unlisted and defunct companies such as Livedoor and, therefore, there is implicit survivor bias in the data. The broad themes that are developed in DETAIL below are grouped into six topics as follows: - • SUMMARY •  • FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW •  • SCORING - RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS / RELATIVE PRICE •  • RESULTS TRENDS •  • VALUATION • • RECOMMENDATIONS •Source: Japan AnalyticsOVERVIEW - As will be covered in greater DETAIL below, Japan has failed to evolve a substantial Internet Sector and, in many business models, has been passed by global competitors including in the home market. Although Internet Sector revenues have grown steadily and now account for close to 1% of the total for all listed companies, operating margins have declined by half in the last seven years and are now only four percentage points higher than the market average. Accordingly, as measured by our Results &amp; Revision Score, the Sector is close to a twelve-year low. The market's response is an unchanged Sector weight in the market composite despite the addition of 111 new companies in the last six years, and a Relative Price Score that has moved in a narrow range over that period. The Sector averages disguise the weak business and market performance of a handful of Sector leaders as well as the overvaluation of the Sector's more successful business models, which is partly a result of a lack of alternatives. Despite the world's most significant Internet investor - Softbank Group (9984 JP)'s Vision Fund - being based in Japan, this fund and other global investors in Internet business have been right to give Japan a 'pass'. 

🇯🇵 Japan • Internet Sector Review - 'Japan Passing'

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p><strong>SMALL CAP TOPIX INCLUSION</strong></p><p>Earlier this spring, online social support provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24224" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24224:1">Kamakura Shinsho Ltd (6184 JP)</a>, then listed on the TSE's MOTHERS Section, applied to move to the TSE's main board. On June 30th, the company was told that it would join either TSE1 or TSE2, and on July 10th, it was told it would be the First Section. Last Friday the company officially joined the TSE1.</p><p>This event triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index. According to the TOPIX Index Methodology, inclusion will be on the…</p>

SMALL CAP TOPIX INCLUSIONEarlier this spring, online social support provider Kamakura Shinsho Ltd (6184 JP), then listed on the TSE's MOTHERS Section, applied to move to the TSE's main board. On June 30th, the company was told that it would join either TSE1 or TSE2, and on July 10th, it was told it would be the First Section. Last Friday the company officially joined the TSE1.This event triggers inclusion into the TOPIX Index. According to the TOPIX Index Methodology, inclusion will be on the…

Kamakura Shinsho (6184) TSE1 Promotion & TOPIX Inclusion

Japan

Kamakura Shinsho, Ltd. provides information on grievance and social support connections through online portal sites. The Company also operates publishing and consulting businesses.

Kamakura Shinsho (6184 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/10 Mitsui High-Tech, Kamakura S

Our best and worst pairing from Thursday's results is Leadframe specialist Mitsui High Tec (6966 JP) and life-ending services business Kamakura...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/10 - Sekisui House, Kobe Bussan, Japan Display, Kamakura Sh.

DAILY STATS PERCENTAGES - 75% of quarterly results, 75% of annual forecasts/revisions and 50% of interim forecasts have negative Scores....

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 Japan • Internet Sector Review - 'Japan Passing'

There are currently 241 listed Japanese companies that can be categorised as Internet businesses. Our classification overlaps with the TOPIX-33...

Campbell Gunn

Kamakura Shinsho (6184) TSE1 Promotion & TOPIX Inclusion

SMALL CAP TOPIX INCLUSIONEarlier this spring, online social support provider Kamakura Shinsho Ltd (6184 JP), then listed on the TSE's...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​10 Mitsui High-Tech, Kamakura S

Our best and worst pairing from Thursday's results is Leadframe specialist Mitsui High Tec (6966 JP) and life-ending services business Kamakura...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​10 - Sekisui House, Kobe Bussan, Japan Display, Kamakura Sh.

DAILY STATS PERCENTAGES - 75% of quarterly results, 75% of annual forecasts/revisions and 50% of interim forecasts have negative Scores....

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 Japan • Internet Sector Review - 'Japan Passing'

There are currently 241 listed Japanese companies that can be categorised as Internet businesses. Our classification overlaps with the TOPIX-33...

Campbell Gunn

Kamakura Shinsho (6184) TSE1 Promotion & TOPIX Inclusion

SMALL CAP TOPIX INCLUSIONEarlier this spring, online social support provider Kamakura Shinsho Ltd (6184 JP), then listed on the TSE's...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/10 Mitsui High-Tech, Kamakura S

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/10 - Sekisui House, Kobe Bussan, Japan Display, Kamakura Sh.