Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Brilliance China Automotive / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Friday was the review cutoff for the September rebalance of the ASX family of indices. The September changes for the Hang Seng family of indices were also announced.</li>
<li>The September changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> will be announced after the close of trading on 25 August.</li>
<li>For a second week running, there were big inflows to mainland China ETFs and were spread across multiple index trackers. There were outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:438:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets (EEM US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Friday was the review cutoff for the September rebalance of the ASX family of indices. The September changes for the Hang Seng family of indices were also announced.
The September changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) will be announced after the close of trading on 25 August.
For a second week running, there were big inflows to mainland China ETFs and were spread across multiple index trackers. There were outflows from iShares Emerging Markets (EEM US). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, NEXT50, MVMVA, MVMVW, Celltrion, Brilliance, KQ150, HSCI

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It's finally happening:  biopharmaceuticals developer and producer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> will acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-healthcare-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23641:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS)</a>.  </li>
<li>Inc will issue 0.4492620 new shares for each share in Healthcare. The swap prices of ₩148,853 for Inc and ₩66,874 for Healthcare are firm. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-pharm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:992:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Pharm (068760 KS)</a> is excluded from the original three-way merger plan, but is expected to be merged with the enlarged Inc/Healthcare entity around July 2024.</li>
</ul>


It's finally happening:  biopharmaceuticals developer and producer Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) will acquire Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS).  
Inc will issue 0.4492620 new shares for each share in Healthcare. The swap prices of ₩148,853 for Inc and ₩66,874 for Healthcare are firm. 

Celltrion Pharm (068760 KS) is excluded from the original three-way merger plan, but is expected to be merged with the enlarged Inc/Healthcare entity around July 2024.


Celltrion Inc/Healthcare Merger. Pharm Is Next

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>All the APAC markets we cover (Nifty50, HSI, Nikkei225, Kospi200, S&amp;P/ASX200) are pulling back and some of them have been doing so for 3 weeks.</li>
<li>In this insight we want to offer a re-cap of all the MRM support levels and probabilities for the APAC markets above, after the August 16th Close.</li>
<li>Check our previously published single-market insights for deeper analysis and related investment ideas: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-nifty-index-weekly-correction-may-be-ending" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nifty50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-hang-seng-index-hsi-weekly-long-support-levels-and-probability" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-nikkei-225-nky-monthly-trajectories" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei225</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-kospi-200-index-weekly-trend-analysis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kospi200</a>, S&amp;P/ASX200.</li>
</ul>


All the APAC markets we cover (Nifty50, HSI, Nikkei225, Kospi200, S&amp;P/ASX200) are pulling back and some of them have been doing so for 3 weeks.
In this insight we want to offer a re-cap of all the MRM support levels and probabilities for the APAC markets above, after the August 16th Close.
Check our previously published single-market insights for deeper analysis and related investment ideas: Nifty50, HSI, Nikkei225, Kospi200, S&amp;P/ASX200.


APAC WEEKLY Monitor: Current MRM Supports and Probabilities Re-Cap

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The 2023 multi-month rally in APAC markets started roughly in autumn 2022, in sync with the US market rally, then stalled when the US market began to pull back.</li>
<li>We propose an analysis of the S&amp;P500 MONTHLY, to find support levels to be used as a proxy for predicting APAC bloc's markets supports.</li>
<li>Main forecast: August/September could be down, but the current MRM pattern reading is bullish - the correction (currently at Q2 supports) should not last beyond end of September.</li>
</ul>


The 2023 multi-month rally in APAC markets started roughly in autumn 2022, in sync with the US market rally, then stalled when the US market began to pull back.
We propose an analysis of the S&amp;P500 MONTHLY, to find support levels to be used as a proxy for predicting APAC bloc's markets supports.
Main forecast: August/September could be down, but the current MRM pattern reading is bullish - the correction (currently at Q2 supports) should not last beyond end of September.


EQD | SPX MONTHLY Proxy Supports for APAC Markets

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The KOSPI 200 index last week closed down (CC=-1). This particular pattern is very bullish: 78% of the time the index closes the week up after -1 week down.</li>
<li>The index has been stuck sideways between 348 and 330 for weeks, we still see a buy-the-dip opportunity to ride the continuation of the Bull run from here.</li>
<li>
Main support area to go LONG, based on the Market Reversal Matrix's readings, is between 337 and 335. Time+space estimated probability of success is between 64% and 76%.</li>
</ul>


The KOSPI 200 index last week closed down (CC=-1). This particular pattern is very bullish: 78% of the time the index closes the week up after -1 week down.
The index has been stuck sideways between 348 and 330 for weeks, we still see a buy-the-dip opportunity to ride the continuation of the Bull run from here.

Main support area to go LONG, based on the Market Reversal Matrix's readings, is between 337 and 335. Time+space estimated probability of success is between 64% and 76%.


EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY Trend Analysis

South Korea

The KOSPI 200 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 200 Korean stocks which make up 93% of the total market value of the Korea Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of January 3, 1990.

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

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Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, NEXT50, MVMVA, MVMVW, Celltrion, Brilliance, KQ150, HSCI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Celltrion Inc/Healthcare Merger. Pharm Is Next

This looked done. Healthcare is trading through the swap and appraisal terms. Keep in mind the appraisal rights cap. Given the spread - or lack of...

David Blennerhassett

APAC WEEKLY Monitor: Current MRM Supports and Probabilities Re-Cap

A re-cap/monitor of all the MRM WEEKLY support levels and probabilities of trend reversal for the APAC markets we cover (Nifty50, HSI, Nikkei 225,...

Nico Rosti

EQD | SPX MONTHLY Proxy Supports for APAC Markets

We propose an analysis of the SP500 MONTHLY, to find MRM support levels to be used as a proxy to predict APAC markets MONTHLY supports.

Nico Rosti

EQD | KOSPI 200 Index WEEKLY Trend Analysis

The KOSPI 200 Index got stuck in a range during the last few weeks, but it may be readying to resume its Bull run. Read the latest Market Reversal...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)