China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Luckin Coffee: Price war continue and competition in low tier cities expansion intensified</li>
<li>CATL/ LI: CATL unveils Shenxing Battery ( + / +)</li>
<li>700.HK: Honor of Kings Faces Reputation Crisis Recently( - )</li>
</ul>


Luckin Coffee: Price war continue and competition in low tier cities expansion intensified
CATL/ LI: CATL unveils Shenxing Battery ( + / +)
700.HK: Honor of Kings Faces Reputation Crisis Recently( - )


China TMT Update-Luckin/CATL/LI/700.HK:HoK Crisis;Coffee Price War Continue; Shenxing Battery

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Li Auto reported solid 2Q23 results, with both top line beating cons/our est. by 5.3%/3.6% and GPM of 21.8% beating cons/our est. by 1.1/1.7ppt.</li>
<li>We reiterate that capacity ramp-up is the key for Q3/Q4 delivery. Q3 sees a temporary capacity bottleneck albeit this is likely to be resolved in Q4.</li>
<li>We expect the launch of MEGA BEV in 4Q23 to be the next catalyst. We reiterate Li Auto as our top pick and raise TP due to better-than-expected margin outlook.</li>
</ul>


Li Auto reported solid 2Q23 results, with both top line beating cons/our est. by 5.3%/3.6% and GPM of 21.8% beating cons/our est. by 1.1/1.7ppt.
We reiterate that capacity ramp-up is the key for Q3/Q4 delivery. Q3 sees a temporary capacity bottleneck albeit this is likely to be resolved in Q4.
We expect the launch of MEGA BEV in 4Q23 to be the next catalyst. We reiterate Li Auto as our top pick and raise TP due to better-than-expected margin outlook.


[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, BUY, TP US$57)TP Change]: MEGA Is the Next Catalyst…Reiterate as Our Top Pick

<ul>
<li>LI: Li Auto adds L9 Pro trim to L9 series (+)</li>
<li>BABA/JD：Cainiao started half day delivery in 8 cities（+ / -）</li>
<li>3690HK/TCOM: Meituan established a strategic partnership with Amadeus to expand the outbound travel market（+/-）</li>
</ul>


LI: Li Auto adds L9 Pro trim to L9 series (+)
BABA/JD：Cainiao started half day delivery in 8 cities（+ / -）
3690HK/TCOM: Meituan established a strategic partnership with Amadeus to expand the outbound travel market（+/-）


China TMT Update-LI/BABA/JD/3690hk/TCOM-L9 Pro Trim/Cainiao Half Day Delivery/Meituan and Amadeus

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. </li>
<li>Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).</li>
<li>Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. 
Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).
Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials


MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

<ul>
<li>We expect Li Auto to report 2Q23 top line and GPM 2.3%/in line vs. cons. We think Li Auto’s share gain in Q1/Q2 reflects market consolidation.</li>
<li>Our channel check found its weekly order intake remains robust at ~10k. We expect the capacity ramp-up to lead to Q3 delivery of ~100k, 12% vs. cons. </li>
<li>We reiterate Li Auto as our top pick, due to 1)  strong model cycle (L9/L8/L7) and channel expansion; 2) margin upside. Li’s MEGA BEV could be the next catalyst.</li>
</ul>


We expect Li Auto to report 2Q23 top line and GPM 2.3%/in line vs. cons. We think Li Auto’s share gain in Q1/Q2 reflects market consolidation.
Our channel check found its weekly order intake remains robust at ~10k. We expect the capacity ramp-up to lead to Q3 delivery of ~100k, 12% vs. cons. 
We reiterate Li Auto as our top pick, due to 1)  strong model cycle (L9/L8/L7) and channel expansion; 2) margin upside. Li’s MEGA BEV could be the next catalyst.


[Li Auto (LI US, BUY, TP US$55) TP Change]: Witnessing Consolidation…Reiterate as Our Top Pick

China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

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Li Auto (LI US)

China TMT Update-Luckin/CATL/LI/700.HK:HoK Crisis;Coffee Price War Continue; Shenxing Battery

Luckin Coffee: Price war continue and competition in low tier cities expansion intensified;CATL/ LI: CATL unveils Shenxing Battery ( + / +);700.HK:...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, BUY, TP US$57)TP Change]: MEGA Is the Next Catalyst…Reiterate as Our Top Pick

We expect the launch of MEGA BEV in 4Q23 to be the next catalyst. We reiterate Li Auto as our top pick and raise TP due to better-than-expected...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update-LI/BABA/JD/3690hk/TCOM-L9 Pro Trim/Cainiao Half Day Delivery/Meituan and Amadeus

LI: Li Auto adds L9 Pro trim to L9 series (+);BABA/JD: Cainiao started half day delivery in 8 cities;3690HK/TCOM: Meituan established a strategic...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

MSCI EM Index $EEM Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE $EFA. Top EM Country Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors:...

Vermilion Research

[Li Auto (LI US, BUY, TP US$55) TP Change]: Witnessing Consolidation…Reiterate as Our Top Pick

We reiterate Li Auto as our top pick, due to 1) strong model cycle (L9/L8/L7) and channel expansion; 2) margin upside. Li’s MEGA BEV could be the...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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