Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Janus Analysis

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>COVID-19 disruption will last longer than many are forecasting</li>
<li>China property sales very weak, as is its domestic rebar utilisation</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a> has decades of probable production in front of it</li>
<li>Forecast <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wesfarmers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1104:1" rel="noopener">Wesfarmers Ltd (WES AU)</a> evaluating 2nd takeover bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)</a> </li>
<li>Boda could be a company maker for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alkane-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19111:1" rel="noopener">Alkane Resources (ALK AU)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-billiton-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5424:1" rel="noopener">Bhp Billiton Ltd (Adr) (BHP US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yellow-cake-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27844:1" rel="noopener">Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/syrah-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1978:1" rel="noopener">Syrah Resources (SYR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walkabout-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16753:1" rel="noopener">Walkabout Resources (WKT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13914:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Resources (GXY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alkane-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19111:1" rel="noopener">Alkane Resources (ALK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spdr-gold-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8632:1" rel="noopener">SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sandstorm-gold-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25752:1" rel="noopener">Sandstorm Gold (SSL CN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jameson-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1923:1" rel="noopener">Jameson Resources (JAL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paladin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10117:1" rel="noopener">Paladin Energy (PDN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atrum-coal-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9553:1" rel="noopener">Atrum Coal Nl (ATU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/catalyst-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4293:1" rel="noopener">Catalyst Metals (CYL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emmerson-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18705:1" rel="noopener">Emmerson Resources (ERM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exore-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16357:1" rel="noopener">Exore Resources (ERX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stavely-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20213:1" rel="noopener">Stavely Minerals (SVY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bellevue-gold-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2297:1" rel="noopener">Bellevue Gold (BGL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allegiance-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14443:1" rel="noopener">Allegiance Coal (AHQ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/breaker-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19210:1" rel="noopener">Breaker Resources Nl (BRB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lion-one-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28159:1" rel="noopener">Lion One Metals Ltd (LLO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackstone-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28181:1" rel="noopener">Blackstone Minerals Ltd (BSX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/poseidon-nickel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12760:1" rel="noopener">Poseidon Nickel (POS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mincor-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6731:1" rel="noopener">Mincor Resources Nl (MCR AU)</a> </li>
</ul><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/121/872/original/Table%201.png?1583703969" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="121872"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/121/873/original/Table%202.png?1583703993" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="121873"></figure>


COVID-19 disruption will last longer than many are forecasting
China property sales very weak, as is its domestic rebar utilisation

Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) has decades of probable production in front of it
Forecast Wesfarmers Ltd (WES AU) evaluating 2nd takeover bid for Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) 
Boda could be a company maker for Alkane Resources (ALK AU) 

Bhp Billiton Ltd (Adr) (BHP US), Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), Fortescue Metals (FMG AU), Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN), Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU), Syrah Resources (SYR AU), Walkabout Resources (WKT AU), Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU), Galaxy Resources (GXY AU), Alkane Resources (ALK AU), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD US), Sandstorm Gold (SSL CN), Jameson Resources (JAL AU), Paladin Energy (PDN AU), Atrum Coal Nl (ATU AU), Catalyst Metals (CYL AU), Emmerson Resources (ERM AU), Exore Resources (ERX AU), Stavely Minerals (SVY AU), Bellevue Gold (BGL AU), Allegiance Coal (AHQ AU), Breaker Resources Nl (BRB AU), Lion One Metals Ltd (LLO AU), Blackstone Minerals Ltd (BSX AU), Poseidon Nickel (POS AU), Mincor Resources Nl (MCR AU) 


New J. Hutton – Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 08/03/20) Abridged

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We examine at what stage the current commodities Supercycle exists</li>
<li>Using BoC data, it appears that three of four commodity trends are declining</li>
<li>Last BoC commodity trend a lagging indicator that has historically confirmed peak demand</li>
<li>When base materials decline, gold usually comes to the fore</li>
<li>Chinese stimulus coming, good for iron ore but little else</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wesfarmers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1104:1" rel="noopener">Wesfarmers Ltd (WES AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glencore-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:764:1" rel="noopener">Glencore Plc (GLEN LN), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freeport-mcmoran-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1" rel="noopener">Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mmg-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13961:1" rel="noopener">Mmg Ltd (1208 HK), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teck-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25419:1" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK/B CN), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India Ltd (COAL IN), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-zinc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8688:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25109:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ),</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maverix-metals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28296" rel="noopener">Maverix Metals Inc (MMX CN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/red-5-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7940:1" rel="noopener">Red 5 Ltd (RED AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kidman-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13917:1" rel="noopener">Kidman Resources (KDR AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pensana-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2106:1" rel="noopener">Pensana Metals (PM8 AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azumah-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5124:1" rel="noopener">Azumah Resources (AZM AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldphyre-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1938:1" rel="noopener">Australian Potash (APC AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-rim-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8395:1" rel="noopener">Golden Rim Resources (GMR AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/neometals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4946:1" rel="noopener">Neometals Ltd (NMT AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/venus-metals-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10142:1" rel="noopener">Venus Metals Corp (VMC AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s2-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1139:1" rel="noopener">S2 Resources (S2R AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canyon-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15927:1" rel="noopener">Canyon Resources (CAY AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lucapa-diamond-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7068:1" rel="noopener">Lucapa Diamond (LOM AU),</a> Piedmont Lithium (ASX: PLL), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lion-one-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28159:1" rel="noopener">Lion One Metals Ltd (LLO AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausmex-mining-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11167:1" rel="noopener">Ausmex Mining Group (AMG AU),</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bardoc-gold-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4833" rel="noopener">Bardoc Gold (BDC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vango-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19897:1" rel="noopener">Vango Mining (VAN AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dateline-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19564:1" rel="noopener">Dateline Resources (DTR AU),</a> Galena (ASX: G1A), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zyl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2971:1" rel="noopener">Hawkstone Mining (HWK AU),</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntm-gold-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19562" rel="noopener">NTM Gold (NTM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xanadu-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1270:1" rel="noopener">Xanadu Mines (XAM AU),</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alt-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28297" rel="noopener">ALT Resources Ltd (ARS AU)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exore-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16357" rel="noopener">Exore Resources (ERX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spectrum-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2237" rel="noopener">Spectrum Metals (SPX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20445:1" rel="noopener">Northern Minerals (NTU AU),</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bowen-coking-coal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17492" rel="noopener">Bowen Coking Coal (BCB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/syndicated-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1219:1" rel="noopener">Syndicated Metals (SMD AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minotaur-exploration-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20909:1" rel="noopener">Minotaur Exploration (MEP AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oro-verde-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5298:1" rel="noopener">Oro Verde Ltd (OVL AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/superior-lake-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15163:1" rel="noopener">Superior Lake Resources (SUP AU)</a> </li>
</ul>


We examine at what stage the current commodities Supercycle exists
Using BoC data, it appears that three of four commodity trends are declining
Last BoC commodity trend a lagging indicator that has historically confirmed peak demand
When base materials decline, gold usually comes to the fore
Chinese stimulus coming, good for iron ore but little else

Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU), Wesfarmers Ltd (WES AU), Glencore Plc (GLEN LN), Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US), Mmg Ltd (1208 HK), Teck Resources (TECK/B CN), Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), Coal India Ltd (COAL IN), Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN), Southern Copper (SCCO US), Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ), Maverix Metals Inc (MMX CN), Red 5 Ltd (RED AU), Kidman Resources (KDR AU), Pensana Metals (PM8 AU), Azumah Resources (AZM AU), Australian Potash (APC AU), Golden Rim Resources (GMR AU), Neometals Ltd (NMT AU), Venus Metals Corp (VMC AU), S2 Resources (S2R AU), Canyon Resources (CAY AU), Lucapa Diamond (LOM AU), Piedmont Lithium (ASX: PLL), Lion One Metals Ltd (LLO AU), Ausmex Mining Group (AMG AU), Bardoc Gold (BDC AU), Vango Mining (VAN AU), Dateline Resources (DTR AU), Galena (ASX: G1A), Hawkstone Mining (HWK AU), NTM Gold (NTM AU), Xanadu Mines (XAM AU), ALT Resources Ltd (ARS AU) , Exore Resources (ERX AU), Spectrum Metals (SPX AU), Northern Minerals (NTU AU), Bowen Coking Coal (BCB AU), Syndicated Metals (SMD AU), Minotaur Exploration (MEP AU), Oro Verde Ltd (OVL AU), Superior Lake Resources (SUP AU) 


New J Hutton – Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 30/08/19)

Canada

Lion One Metals Ltd.acquires and explores mineral properties.  The Company has an option to acquire certain mineral claims located on the Fijian Islands, including the assets collectively known as the Tuvatu Gold project.

Lion One Metals Ltd (LLO AU)

New J. Hutton – Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 08/03/20) Abridged

COVID-19 disruption will last longer than many are forecasting China property sales very weak, as is its domestic rebar utilisation Gold Road...

Gaius King

New J Hutton – Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 30/08/19)

We examine at what stage the current commodities Supercycle exists Using BoC data, it appears that three of four commodity trends are...

Gaius King