Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>LI Auto reported C4Q23 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income (6.2%), 13% and 81% vs. our estimates and 4.9%, 52% and 102% vs. consensus.</li>
<li>We believe LI can beat our delivery estimate on exports, but can also miss the consensus on gross margins if its 2024 volume target is met by sedans;</li>
<li>We raise our TP by US$5 to US$52 and reiterate BUY.</li>
</ul>


LI Auto reported C4Q23 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income (6.2%), 13% and 81% vs. our estimates and 4.9%, 52% and 102% vs. consensus.
We believe LI can beat our delivery estimate on exports, but can also miss the consensus on gross margins if its 2024 volume target is met by sedans;
We raise our TP by US$5 to US$52 and reiterate BUY.


[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, BUY, TP US$52) TP Change]: What Can Go Wrong & Go Right in LI Becoming BYD #2

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Maintain our top pick. Li Auto’s strong beat in 4Q23 GPM led to an all-time high operating margin of 7.3%.</li><li>Its FY23 net margin of 9.5% was also much higher than its guidance of 5% in mid-2023.</li><li>Management has also provided a clear path to achieve its FY24 sales target and is still quite self-disciplined in costs and expansion.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain our top pick. Li Auto’s strong beat in 4Q23 GPM led to an all-time high operating margin of 7.3%.Its FY23 net margin of 9.5% was also much higher than its guidance of 5% in mid-2023.Management has also provided a clear path to achieve its FY24 sales target and is still quite self-disciplined in costs and expansion.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Li Auto Inc. (LI US) - 4Q23 Results Set the Tone for Resilient FY24

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In 4Q23, revenue grew by 136% and operating profit was significantly higher than the market consensus.</li>
<li>Li Auto grew the most rapidly among the top-ten Chinese NEV sellers.</li>
<li>We believe Li Auto will be one of the winners after the market gets more concentrated. Upgrade to Hold.</li>
</ul>


In 4Q23, revenue grew by 136% and operating profit was significantly higher than the market consensus.
Li Auto grew the most rapidly among the top-ten Chinese NEV sellers.
We believe Li Auto will be one of the winners after the market gets more concentrated. Upgrade to Hold.


Li Auto (LI US): 4Q23, High Growth and Profit, A Winner of Market Concentration, Upgraded to Hold

<ul><li>We expect Li Auto’s 4Q23E net profit to rise 2% QoQ to RMB 2.9bn, or a net profit of RMB 21,850 per vehicle.</li><li>We lower our FY24E net profit by 14% to RMB 12.6bn amid a prolonged price war.</li><li>We are of the view that its current valuation of 16x our FY24E P/E is attractive given Li Auto’s growth potential and profitability.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect Li Auto’s 4Q23E net profit to rise 2% QoQ to RMB 2.9bn, or a net profit of RMB 21,850 per vehicle.We lower our FY24E net profit by 14% to RMB 12.6bn amid a prolonged price war.We are of the view that its current valuation of 16x our FY24E P/E is attractive given Li Auto’s growth potential and profitability.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Li Auto Inc. (LI US) – 4Q23 earnings preview: NP to be flat QoQ

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1810HK/1211HK/LI/XPEV/NIO: The growth rate of new energy vehicles fell back in the 15th week of 2024,BYD and Li delivered stably,AITO slowed down due to L6,XiaomiSU7 impacting TeslaM3 and BYDHan（/）</li>
<li>BEKE US: Residential new home sales value fell by 30% YoY in 1Q24, but slightly better than consensus(+)</li>
<li>300750 SZ: CATL’s first quarter results show strong pricing power amid fierce price war（/）</li>
</ul>


1810HK/1211HK/LI/XPEV/NIO: The growth rate of new energy vehicles fell back in the 15th week of 2024,BYD and Li delivered stably,AITO slowed down due to L6,XiaomiSU7 impacting TeslaM3 and BYDHan（/）
BEKE US: Residential new home sales value fell by 30% YoY in 1Q24, but slightly better than consensus(+)
300750 SZ: CATL’s first quarter results show strong pricing power amid fierce price war（/）


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/1211 HK/LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/BEKE US/300750 SZ

China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

Li Auto (LI US)

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, BUY, TP US$52) TP Change]: What Can Go Wrong & Go Right in LI Becoming BYD #2

LI Auto exceeded expectations in top line, operating profit, and net income, with potential for increased exports but possible gross margin...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Li Auto Inc. (LI US) - 4Q23 Results Set the Tone for Resilient FY24

Maintain our top pick. Li Auto’s strong beat in 4Q23 GPM led to an all-time high operating margin of 7.3%. Its FY23 net margin of 9.5% was also...

CMB International

Li Auto (LI US): 4Q23, High Growth and Profit, A Winner of Market Concentration, Upgraded to Hold

In 4Q23, revenue grew by 136% and operating profit was significantly higher than the market consensus. Li Auto grew the most rapidly among the top...

Ming Lu

Li Auto Inc. (LI US) – 4Q23 earnings preview: NP to be flat QoQ

We are of the view that its current valuation of 16x our FY24E P/E is attractive given Li Auto’s growth potential and profitability.

CMB International

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/1211 HK/LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/BEKE US/300750 SZ

New energy vehicle growth rate dips in 15th week of 2024, CATL shows strong pricing power in Q1, BEKE US sees 30% YoY drop in new home sales value...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, BUY, TP US$52) TP Change]: What Can Go Wrong & Go Right in LI Becoming BYD #2

​LI Auto exceeded expectations in top line, operating profit, and net income, with potential for increased exports but possible gross margin...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Li Auto Inc. (LI US) - 4Q23 Results Set the Tone for Resilient FY24

Maintain our top pick. Li Auto’s strong beat in 4Q23 GPM led to an all-time high operating margin of 7.3%. Its FY23 net margin of 9.5% was also...

CMB International

Li Auto (LI US): 4Q23, High Growth and Profit, A Winner of Market Concentration, Upgraded to Hold

In 4Q23, revenue grew by 136% and operating profit was significantly higher than the market consensus. Li Auto grew the most rapidly among the top...

Ming Lu

Li Auto Inc. (LI US) – 4Q23 earnings preview: NP to be flat QoQ

We are of the view that its current valuation of 16x our FY24E P/E is attractive given Li Auto’s growth potential and profitability.

CMB International

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/1211 HK/LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/BEKE US/300750 SZ

​New energy vehicle growth rate dips in 15th week of 2024, CATL shows strong pricing power in Q1, BEKE US sees 30% YoY drop in new home sales value...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

LI Auto exceeded expectations in top line, operating profit, and net income, with potential for increased exports but possible gross margin...

New energy vehicle growth rate dips in 15th week of 2024, CATL shows strong pricing power in Q1, BEKE US sees 30% YoY drop in new home sales value...