Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 20 August. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>, there are 2 inclusions and 2 exclusions.In line with our forecasts, the inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK)</a> while the deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimao-property-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8375:1" rel="noopener">Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:159:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)</a>. One-way turnover is estimated at 6.82% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$4.84bn. Following an increase in the index shares and no change in the capping factor at the July monthly rebalance, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>'s weight will be capped at 8% leading to outflows from the stock.There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK)</a> was a forecast inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> but was not expected to be included in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>. Passive trackers across both indices will need to buy over 3 days of ADV on the stock and the stock could open higher on Monday.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> is down 38% from its IPO price and the index inclusion could act as a support in the short term. Short selling commenced a few weeks back and shorts have piled in rapidly.

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 20 August. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.For the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX), there are 2 inclusions and 2 exclusions.In line with our forecasts, the inclusions are JD Logistics (2618 HK) and Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK) while the deletions are Shimao Property Holdings (813 HK) and Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK). One-way turnover is estimated at 6.82% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$4.84bn. Following an increase in the index shares and no change in the capping factor at the July monthly rebalance, Alibaba Group (9988 HK)'s weight will be capped at 8% leading to outflows from the stock.There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes.Li Ning Co Ltd (2331 HK) was a forecast inclusion in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) but was not expected to be included in the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). Passive trackers across both indices will need to buy over 3 days of ADV on the stock and the stock could open higher on Monday.JD Logistics (2618 HK) is down 38% from its IPO price and the index inclusion could act as a support in the short term. Short selling commenced a few weeks back and shorts have piled in rapidly.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Li Ning's Double Inclusion; Alibaba Capping Leads to High Turnover

Quantitative Analysis

The property sector in China has been in the spotlight over the last few years. Regulators have made various attempts to temper price growth but the silver bullet has been elusive so far.The powers that be realise that the lack of affordable housing is one of the reasons for China's birth rate dropping and there is now a renewed effort to ensure that property prices do not continue to run up. As part of the measures that started with the 'Three Red Lines' almost a year ago, Bloomberg reports that China has halted PE funds from raising money to invest in residential property developments.We take a look at some of the regulatory changes that have been implemented over the last year and see how the companies in the sector are faring. We then look for stocks with similar characteristics but different stock returns over the last year to find trade opportunities.

The property sector in China has been in the spotlight over the last few years. Regulators have made various attempts to temper price growth but the silver bullet has been elusive so far.The powers that be realise that the lack of affordable housing is one of the reasons for China's birth rate dropping and there is now a renewed effort to ensure that property prices do not continue to run up. As part of the measures that started with the 'Three Red Lines' almost a year ago, Bloomberg reports that China has halted PE funds from raising money to invest in residential property developments.We take a look at some of the regulatory changes that have been implemented over the last year and see how the companies in the sector are faring. We then look for stocks with similar characteristics but different stock returns over the last year to find trade opportunities.

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-479'>Evergrande Real Estate Group</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Evergrande Real Estate Group

Morning Views Asia: Evergrande Real Estate Group

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-479'>Evergrande Real Estate Group</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-14896'>Jingrui Holdings</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-21047'>Ronshine China Holdings</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-2979'>Tata Steel Thailand</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Evergrande Real Estate GroupJingrui HoldingsRonshine China HoldingsTata Steel Thailand

Morning Views Asia: Evergrande Real Estate Group, Jingrui Holdings, Ronshine China Holdings

In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we discuss Chinese developers’ urban redevelopment businesses, including local governments' role in urban renewal projects and the various redevelopment models, as well as the impact of such projects on companies' financials. We also give an overview of recent bond defaults. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus" section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we discuss Chinese developers’ urban redevelopment businesses, including local governments' role in urban renewal projects and the various redevelopment models, as well as the impact of such projects on companies' financials. We also give an overview of recent bond defaults.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus" section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - Chinese Developers’ Urban Redevelopment Businesses - Lucror Analytics

China

Logan Property Holdings Company Limited is a real estate development company. The Company focuses on residential property projects.

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Logan Property Holdings (3380 HK)

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Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

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Asia HY Monthly - Chinese Developers’ Urban Redevelopment Businesses - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s "In-Focus" section, we discuss Chinese developers’ urban redevelopment businesses, including local governments' role in urban...

Lucror Analytics

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