Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The short-term bullish reversal discussed last week is officially underway now that the S&amp;P 500 has reclaimed its 200-day MA, but we are not yet out of the woods.</li>
<li>We discuss what we are watching to determine whether this is just an oversold bounce that resolves lower, or if the S&amp;P 500 is headed back to all-time highs.</li>
<li>The prior two trading days appears to be the start of a short-term mean reversion, where beaten down growth areas (ARKK, software, biotech, etc.) are outperforming.</li>
</ul>


The short-term bullish reversal discussed last week is officially underway now that the S&amp;P 500 has reclaimed its 200-day MA, but we are not yet out of the woods.
We discuss what we are watching to determine whether this is just an oversold bounce that resolves lower, or if the S&amp;P 500 is headed back to all-time highs.
The prior two trading days appears to be the start of a short-term mean reversion, where beaten down growth areas (ARKK, software, biotech, etc.) are outperforming.


Not Out Of The Woods; SPX Back Above The 200-Day MA; Growth Catching A Bid; Buying Energy, Biotech

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market continues to send a mix of risk-on and risk-off signals, though most of the risk-on signals are centered around value Sectors.</li>
<li>Value Sectors such as Energy, Financials, Manufacturing/Industrials, and Materials are currently our favorite areas for investment, and also Consumer Staples.</li>
<li>Some of our big picture supports are being violated, including the Russell MicroCaps (IWC) which is breaking below $134 as the Russell 2000 (IWM) tests support at $207.50-$208.</li>
</ul>


The market continues to send a mix of risk-on and risk-off signals, though most of the risk-on signals are centered around value Sectors.
Value Sectors such as Energy, Financials, Manufacturing/Industrials, and Materials are currently our favorite areas for investment, and also Consumer Staples.
Some of our big picture supports are being violated, including the Russell MicroCaps (IWC) which is breaking below $134 as the Russell 2000 (IWM) tests support at $207.50-$208.


U.S. Equity Strategy: Market Sending Mixed Signals; Stick With Value; Energy Stocks Highlighted

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>This is our first report on the oil major, Marathon Oil, a company that has seen its stock price nearly triple in the past year after the phenomenal rally in crude oil prices.</li><li>When crude oil prices were at their low, Marathon Oil worked to build an ultra-low-cost structure with oil production systems breaking even at an oil price as low as $35 per barrel.</li><li>This has positioned the company to produce a gush of cash this year and beyond if crude oil prices continue to live up to the bright future outlook.</li></ul>

This is our first report on the oil major, Marathon Oil, a company that has seen its stock price nearly triple in the past year after the phenomenal rally in crude oil prices.When crude oil prices were at their low, Marathon Oil worked to build an ultra-low-cost structure with oil production systems breaking even at an oil price as low as $35 per barrel.This has positioned the company to produce a gush of cash this year and beyond if crude oil prices continue to live up to the bright future outlook.

Marathon Oil Corporation - Investment Thesis

Last week we noted that in order for us to turn bullish on the broad market, we need to see breakouts to YTD highs in small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), Energy (XOP), and equal-weighted Discretionary (RCD). We now have the breakout we needed in Energy (RYE, XOP), but the other areas are still consolidating. Therefore, we still see a mixed market and we remain neutral yet constructive overall.Stocks highlighted: XOP, WTI Crude Oil, IWD, IWM, S&amp;P 500, Equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW), HLT, SEAS, DRI, PLAY, COP, EOG, PXD, OXY, DVN, CLR, CTRA, FANG, MRO, XEC, APA, AR, MUR, RRC, SWN, MTDR, PDCE, SM, BSM, CPE, VNOM, LPI, DMLP, CHX, WHD, NOA, TTI, NR, EXTN, NGS, FET, and CCLP

Last week we noted that in order for us to turn bullish on the broad market, we need to see breakouts to YTD highs in small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), Energy (XOP), and equal-weighted Discretionary (RCD). We now have the breakout we needed in Energy (RYE, XOP), but the other areas are still consolidating. Therefore, we still see a mixed market and we remain neutral yet constructive overall.Stocks highlighted: XOP, WTI Crude Oil, IWD, IWM, S&amp;P 500, Equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW), HLT, SEAS, DRI, PLAY, COP, EOG, PXD, OXY, DVN, CLR, CTRA, FANG, MRO, XEC, APA, AR, MUR, RRC, SWN, MTDR, PDCE, SM, BSM, CPE, VNOM, LPI, DMLP, CHX, WHD, NOA, TTI, NR, EXTN, NGS, FET, and CCLP

Upgrading Energy To Overweight; WTI Crude Oil and XOP With Major Long-Term Breakouts

Last week's FOMC announcement was more hawkish than expected, and the market took the news in stride. Market dynamics have improved significantly since the announcement, which has us inching toward an outright bullish outlook; we are just waiting for price breakouts from cyclical areas including small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Energy (XOP).Charts highlighted: COP, EOG, DVN, CLR, FANG, MRO, XEC, COG, AR, MUR, USB, PNC, FITB, KEY, RF, CMA, SIVB, WAL, EWBC, ZION, PACW, UMPQ, FHB, and CATY.

Last week's FOMC announcement was more hawkish than expected, and the market took the news in stride. Market dynamics have improved significantly since the announcement, which has us inching toward an outright bullish outlook; we are just waiting for price breakouts from cyclical areas including small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Energy (XOP).Charts highlighted: COP, EOG, DVN, CLR, FANG, MRO, XEC, COG, AR, MUR, USB, PNC, FITB, KEY, RF, CMA, SIVB, WAL, EWBC, ZION, PACW, UMPQ, FHB, and CATY.

10-Yr Treasury Yield Breaking Out; Downgrading U.S. Consumer Staples and Utilities To Underweight

United States

Marathon Oil Corporation is an independent international energy company engaged in exploration and production, oil sands mining and integrated gas. The Company's operations are focused in North America, Africa and Europe.

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Marathon Oil (MRO US)

Not Out Of The Woods; SPX Back Above The 200-Day MA; Growth Catching A Bid; Buying Energy, Biotech

The short-term bullish reversal that we referenced last week is officially underway now that the S&P 500 has reclaimed its 200-day MA, but we are...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Market Sending Mixed Signals; Stick With Value; Energy Stocks Highlighted

The market continues to send mixed signals, though most of the risk-on signals are centered around value Sectors such as Energy, Financials,...

Vermilion Research

Marathon Oil Corporation - Investment Thesis

This is our first report on the oil major, Marathon Oil, a company that has seen its stock price nearly triple in the past year after the...

Baptista Research

Upgrading Energy To Overweight; WTI Crude Oil and XOP With Major Long-Term Breakouts

Recent developments lead us to believe that Energy is likely to outperform moving forward: WTI crude oil is breaking above $77, and the RYE and XOP...

Vermilion Research

10-Yr Treasury Yield Breaking Out; Downgrading U.S. Consumer Staples and Utilities To Underweight

The 10-year Treasury yield broke above the key 1.38% resistance level last week, a bullish signal for the broad equity market and also a bullish...

Vermilion Research

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