Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC says limited impact from U.S. China restrictions -- We crosscheck the comments.</li>
<li>TSMC guidance was strong and gives hope for 1H23 industry improvement. Looks cheap on a cycle-adjusted PE.</li>
<li>Intel has outperformed TSMC shares despite the recent TSMC rebound.</li>
</ul>


TSMC says limited impact from U.S. China restrictions -- We crosscheck the comments.
TSMC guidance was strong and gives hope for 1H23 industry improvement. Looks cheap on a cycle-adjusted PE.
Intel has outperformed TSMC shares despite the recent TSMC rebound.


Intel Vs. TSMC/​​​UMC Long/​​​Short Monitor: Mgmt Call Takeaways, Calculating a Normalized Valuation

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday, Toshiba investors got two bits of news which have been taken as non-bullish.</li>
<li>Affiliate and former subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia (6600 JP)</a> announced it would cut wafer input volume by 30% starting in October, and Toshiba's announcement on the Privatisation process status implied some delay.</li>
<li>Today the shares are getting hit vs Peers. It's still a problem of lots of moving parts. </li>
</ul>


On Friday, Toshiba investors got two bits of news which have been taken as non-bullish.
Affiliate and former subsidiary Kioxia (6600 JP) announced it would cut wafer input volume by 30% starting in October, and Toshiba's announcement on the Privatisation process status implied some delay.
Today the shares are getting hit vs Peers. It's still a problem of lots of moving parts. 


<ul>
<li>Micron's near-term guidance implies that consensus estimates likely need to come down for both Micron and Nanya Tech.</li>
<li>However, Micron indicated that they expect supply/demand balance to improve in 2023E.</li>
<li>There could be more negative industry news to come, however Nanya Tech has a very strong balance sheet to weather some weak quarters and is trading at trough-type valuations.</li>
</ul>


Micron's near-term guidance implies that consensus estimates likely need to come down for both Micron and Nanya Tech.
However, Micron indicated that they expect supply/demand balance to improve in 2023E.
There could be more negative industry news to come, however Nanya Tech has a very strong balance sheet to weather some weak quarters and is trading at trough-type valuations.


Nanya Tech: Micron Results, Light at the End of the Tunnel? Shares Rise

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Micron's Sept 29 4QF22 earnings call met the company's low guidance for the quarter</li>
<li>The company's current-quarter outlook is for a significantly worse 4QF22</li>
<li>This phenomenon will impact the earnings for all of Micron's competition in upcoming calls</li>
</ul>


Micron's Sept 29 4QF22 earnings call met the company's low guidance for the quarter
The company's current-quarter outlook is for a significantly worse 4QF22
This phenomenon will impact the earnings for all of Micron's competition in upcoming calls


<ul>
<li>We estimate that Nanya Technology has the highest level of net cash as a percent of its market cap in its history and it is trading well below 1x PBV.</li>
<li>The median 6-month total shareholder return has been 40.5% for instances since 2012 when Nanya Tech has traded below 1.0x PBV.</li>
<li>Micron's results this Thursday will provide color on Nanya's outlook and could be a catalyst.</li>
</ul>


We estimate that Nanya Technology has the highest level of net cash as a percent of its market cap in its history and it is trading well below 1x PBV.
The median 6-month total shareholder return has been 40.5% for instances since 2012 when Nanya Tech has traded below 1.0x PBV.
Micron's results this Thursday will provide color on Nanya's outlook and could be a catalyst.


Nanya Tech: Valuation Backtest Implies Upside, Potential Catalyst Thursday

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Mgmt Call Takeaways, Calculating a Normalized Valuation

TSMC guidance was strong and gives hope for 1H23 industry improvement. We perform an analysis based on cycle-adjusting the company's margins and PE.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Two Bits of Non-Bullish Toshiba News

Toshiba's possible deal timeline extended just as semi sector troubles start to make themselves better-known. Not bullish. But not hugely bearish....

Travis Lundy

Nanya Tech: Micron Results, Light at the End of the Tunnel? Shares Rise

Margin guidance implies Nanya Tech and Micron consensus numbers need to be reduced significantly, but Micron management comments provide positive...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron FYQ4: Bad, and About to Get Worse

Micron announced revenues down 23% Quarter on Quarter and guided down another 36% Q/Q for the current quarter. This shows what upcoming results...

Jim Handy

Nanya Tech: Valuation Backtest Implies Upside, Potential Catalyst Thursday

The median 6-month total shareholder return has been 40.5% for instances since 2012 when the company has traded below 1.0x PBV. Net cash to market...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Intel Vs. TSMC/​​​UMC Long/​​​Short Monitor: Mgmt Call Takeaways, Calculating a Normalized Valuation

TSMC guidance was strong and gives hope for 1H23 industry improvement. We perform an analysis based on cycle-adjusting the company's margins and PE.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Two Bits of Non-Bullish Toshiba News

Toshiba's possible deal timeline extended just as semi sector troubles start to make themselves better-known. Not bullish. But not hugely bearish....

Travis Lundy

Nanya Tech: Micron Results, Light at the End of the Tunnel? Shares Rise

Margin guidance implies Nanya Tech and Micron consensus numbers need to be reduced significantly, but Micron management comments provide positive...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron FYQ4: Bad, and About to Get Worse

Micron announced revenues down 23% Quarter on Quarter and guided down another 36% Q/Q for the current quarter. This shows what upcoming results...

Jim Handy

Nanya Tech: Valuation Backtest Implies Upside, Potential Catalyst Thursday

The median 6-month total shareholder return has been 40.5% for instances since 2012 when the company has traded below 1.0x PBV. Net cash to market...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Mgmt Call Takeaways, Calculating a Normalized Valuation