Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Nintendo announced today that it would be tying up with Pokemon Go creator Niantic to develop new mobile titles utilising AR, with the first title set to use Shigeru Miyamoto’s Pikmin franchise. This puts Nintendo in an interesting spot to effectively utilise AR even as rival Sony strengthens its grip on VR with the announcement of the PS5’s version of the PSVR.

Nintendo announced today that it would be tying up with Pokemon Go creator Niantic to develop new mobile titles utilising AR, with the first title set to use Shigeru Miyamoto’s Pikmin franchise. This puts Nintendo in an interesting spot to effectively utilise AR even as rival Sony strengthens its grip on VR with the announcement of the PS5’s version of the PSVR.

Nintendo – Nintendo Targets AR as Sony Consolidates VR

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

I often note that whilst Asia arrived at the ESG party fashionably late, it is making up for lost time, going from idle to full-throttle often by leapfrogging large patches of middle ground. One apropos example is the recent surge in Chief Sustainability Officer (CSO) hires by Asian companies.Rather than going a typical route – like having someone in Marketing do double-duty for a year or so to delay shelling out big bucks for a proper CSO – companies such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Exchange (SGX SP)</a> and  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (0005 HK)</a> have recruited some seriously-qualified, executive-level CSOs.Big news, but I wouldn't have bothered with it a few years ago.Until recently, there wasn't much "Chief" or "Officer" to the CSO role. At best, companies hadn't yet figured out what to do with a CSO. At worst, they handed out CSO titles for optics; "greenwashing," as it were. CSOs were idealistic and motivated. Managements and Boards just didn't get it, yet.CSOs have since been excepted as equals into the "C-Suite," having proven their worth and earning a voice in all levels of strategic discourse. Exceptions do exist, the CSO role is varied and continues to evolve, and that "greenwashing" daemon still rears its ugly head every now and again.On the whole, however, CSOs are more influential than ever.From an ESG investing angle, the existence of a CSO has two specific implications: 1) it serves as a barometer of overall ESG commitment, and 2) it is associated with ESG outperformance, and lower ESG risk. For some issuers, it can even portend (portend, not predict) future ESG performance.Recent CSO activity in Asia inspired me to dig deeper. "Deeper" is relative, as the CSO pool in Asia (and elsewhere for that matter) is still very shallow. Nevertheless, this is a comprehensive analysis of the evolving CSO role in Asia – generally, and by cross-sections and topics such as:<ul>
<li>
Results: Correlative or causal, CSOs are linked to better ESG performance and lower risk.</li>
<li>
Country: Singapore and the Philippines have the most CSOs by company-count and size.  </li>
<li>
Sectors: Asian-company CSOs tend to concentrate in large-cap sectors and/or industries.</li>
<li>
Education: CSOs have more advanced degrees, from top universities, than do non-CSOs.</li>
<li>
Gender: Singapore and Thailand have the most female CSOs; Japan and India the least.</li>
</ul>

I often note that whilst Asia arrived at the ESG party fashionably late, it is making up for lost time, going from idle to full-throttle often by leapfrogging large patches of middle ground. One apropos example is the recent surge in Chief Sustainability Officer (CSO) hires by Asian companies.Rather than going a typical route – like having someone in Marketing do double-duty for a year or so to delay shelling out big bucks for a proper CSO – companies such as Singapore Exchange (SGX SP) and  HSBC Holdings (0005 HK) have recruited some seriously-qualified, executive-level CSOs.Big news, but I wouldn't have bothered with it a few years ago.Until recently, there wasn't much "Chief" or "Officer" to the CSO role. At best, companies hadn't yet figured out what to do with a CSO. At worst, they handed out CSO titles for optics; "greenwashing," as it were. CSOs were idealistic and motivated. Managements and Boards just didn't get it, yet.CSOs have since been excepted as equals into the "C-Suite," having proven their worth and earning a voice in all levels of strategic discourse. Exceptions do exist, the CSO role is varied and continues to evolve, and that "greenwashing" daemon still rears its ugly head every now and again.On the whole, however, CSOs are more influential than ever.From an ESG investing angle, the existence of a CSO has two specific implications: 1) it serves as a barometer of overall ESG commitment, and 2) it is associated with ESG outperformance, and lower ESG risk. For some issuers, it can even portend (portend, not predict) future ESG performance.Recent CSO activity in Asia inspired me to dig deeper. "Deeper" is relative, as the CSO pool in Asia (and elsewhere for that matter) is still very shallow. Nevertheless, this is a comprehensive analysis of the evolving CSO role in Asia – generally, and by cross-sections and topics such as:

Results: Correlative or causal, CSOs are linked to better ESG performance and lower risk.

Country: Singapore and the Philippines have the most CSOs by company-count and size.  

Sectors: Asian-company CSOs tend to concentrate in large-cap sectors and/or industries.

Education: CSOs have more advanced degrees, from top universities, than do non-CSOs.

Gender: Singapore and Thailand have the most female CSOs; Japan and India the least.


The Rise of the Chief Sustainability Officer in Asia

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Crowdstrike continues to put up impressive quarterly results and guidance that blows away even heightened expectations. The two high profile cyber hacks in the past few months have given a major tailwind to FY2022...and despite guiding 1000bps ahead of consensus revenue growth, we expect 50% growth to be conservative. We remain long. <div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  </div>

Crowdstrike continues to put up impressive quarterly results and guidance that blows away even heightened expectations. The two high profile cyber hacks in the past few months have given a major tailwind to FY2022...and despite guiding 1000bps ahead of consensus revenue growth, we expect 50% growth to be conservative. We remain long. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Equity Capital Markets

Digitalocean Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

DigitalOcean, a developer-friendly provider of cloud computing services, set terms for an IPO and intends to sell 16.5 million shares at expected price range of $44-$47 per share. Tech unicorn has ~573 000 customers in more than 185 countries and targets specific segment of the cloud market: developers, startups and SMBs. Number of developers to grow from 19 million to 45 million by 2030, according to SlashData and there are 100 million SMBs globally.DigitalOcean has raised ~$456 million in funding over 13 rounds, according to Crunchbase. Cloud computing unicorn was backed by leading venture capital firms Access Industries, Andreessen Horowitz, IA Ventures and Viaduct Ventures. We expect net proceeds from the offering may reach ~$700 million and funds affiliated with Tiger Global Management and AI Droplet Subsidiary LLC have indicated an interest in purchasing an aggregate of up to a maximum of $175 million in shares in this offering at the IPO price. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan are the lead underwriters.

DigitalOcean, a developer-friendly provider of cloud computing services, set terms for an IPO and intends to sell 16.5 million shares at expected price range of $44-$47 per share. Tech unicorn has ~573 000 customers in more than 185 countries and targets specific segment of the cloud market: developers, startups and SMBs. Number of developers to grow from 19 million to 45 million by 2030, according to SlashData and there are 100 million SMBs globally.DigitalOcean has raised ~$456 million in funding over 13 rounds, according to Crunchbase. Cloud computing unicorn was backed by leading venture capital firms Access Industries, Andreessen Horowitz, IA Ventures and Viaduct Ventures. We expect net proceeds from the offering may reach ~$700 million and funds affiliated with Tiger Global Management and AI Droplet Subsidiary LLC have indicated an interest in purchasing an aggregate of up to a maximum of $175 million in shares in this offering at the IPO price. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan are the lead underwriters.  

DigitalOcean IPO. Niche Cloud Provider With Ambitious Growth Strategies

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<div>On 22nd March 2018, after market close in Hong Kong one of the largest overnight placements was launched. On that day, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> reluctantly sold US$10bn worth of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> shares.  I say reluctantly because Naspers provided a three year lock-up at the time of the deal. That lock-up will expire next week. </div><div>We have covered the previous placement in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-placement-huge-deal-in-size-small-in-relative-terms-succumbing-to-the-holdco-discount" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tencent Placement - Huge Deal in Size, Small in Relative Terms - Succumbing to the HoldCo Discount</a> and spoken about the implications of the lock-up expiry in our Feb 2021 note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tencent-placement-lock-up-expiry-us-10bn-block-and-buyback-linked-holdco-trade" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tencent Placement Lock-Up Expiry - US$10bn+ Block and Buyback Linked Holdco Trade</a>.</div><div>In this note, I’ll talk about the updates since then.</div>

On 22nd March 2018, after market close in Hong Kong one of the largest overnight placements was launched. On that day, Naspers (NPN SJ) reluctantly sold US$10bn worth of Tencent Holdings (700 HK) shares.  I say reluctantly because Naspers provided a three year lock-up at the time of the deal. That lock-up will expire next week. We have covered the previous placement in our earlier note, Tencent Placement - Huge Deal in Size, Small in Relative Terms - Succumbing to the HoldCo Discount and spoken about the implications of the lock-up expiry in our Feb 2021 note Tencent Placement Lock-Up Expiry - US$10bn+ Block and Buyback Linked Holdco Trade.In this note, I’ll talk about the updates since then.

Tencent Placement Lock-Up Expiry -  Block and Buyback Linked Holdco Trade Update

United States

Microsoft Corporation operates as a software company. The Company offers applications, extra cloud storage, and advanced security solutions. Microsoft serves customers worldwide.

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Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)

Nintendo – Nintendo Targets AR as Sony Consolidates VR

There are signs that the gaming world could split between strong AR implementations by Nintendo and strong VR implementations by Sony.

Mio Kato

The Rise of the Chief Sustainability Officer in Asia

Chief Sustainability Officers can impact ESG performance and risk-adjusted returns. CSOs are becoming more common anong Asian companies, which are...

Kyle Rudden

Crowdstrike 4Q21: Scaling the Heights

Crowdstrike retains its place as the highest quality high valuation software company, once again beating and raising by a wide margin.

Aaron Gabin

DigitalOcean IPO. Niche Cloud Provider With Ambitious Growth Strategies

DigitalOcean IPO may bring an opportunity for technology investors to increase exposure on fast-growing cloud computing sector

Andrei Zakharov

Tencent Placement Lock-Up Expiry - Block and Buyback Linked Holdco Trade Update

On 22nd March 2018, in Hong Kong one of the largest overnight placements was launched. On that day, Naspers sold US$10bn worth of Tencent shares....

Sumeet Singh

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