IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> is an online bank in Japan. It is looking to raise about US$870 million. The pricing is on 5 April and the listing is on 21 April. </li>
<li>Rakuten Bank, wholly owned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, is the largest Japanese internet bank as measured by the number of accounts and customer deposits.</li>
<li>The investment case rest on Rakuten Ecosystem's competitive advantage, growth in accounts/deposits, robust loan book growth, rising margins and low NPL ratio.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) is an online bank in Japan. It is looking to raise about US$870 million. The pricing is on 5 April and the listing is on 21 April. 
Rakuten Bank, wholly owned by Rakuten (4755 JP), is the largest Japanese internet bank as measured by the number of accounts and customer deposits.
The investment case rest on Rakuten Ecosystem's competitive advantage, growth in accounts/deposits, robust loan book growth, rising margins and low NPL ratio.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a>, the online banking arm of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, aims to raise up to around US$900m in its Japan listing in April 2023.</li>
<li>RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Dec 22, it had 13.3m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY8.8tn.</li>
<li>In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the updates from its recent filings.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Bank (5838 JP), the online banking arm of Rakuten (4755 JP), aims to raise up to around US$900m in its Japan listing in April 2023.
RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Dec 22, it had 13.3m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY8.8tn.
In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the updates from its recent filings.


Rakuten Bank IPO - Recent Filings Updates and Quick Thoughts on Valuation

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> <a href="https://www.rakuten-bank.co.jp/press/2023/pdf/230322-2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that Rakuten Bank had <a href="https://global.rakuten.com/corp/news/press/2023/0322_01.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">received TSE approval to list</a> (English) on TSE Prime, with expected listing date 21 April 2023.</li>
<li>This had been <a href="https://global.rakuten.com/corp/news/press/2022/0704_02.html?year=2022&amp;month=7&amp;category=corp%20ir%20fintech" target="_blank" rel="noopener">in the works since July 2022</a>, and they <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-21/rakuten-is-said-to-pick-goldman-daiwa-for-banking-unit-ipo#xj4y7vzkg" target="_blank" rel="noopener">selected advisors</a> in September 2022. The low end of the offer price range <em>seems</em> attractive. More diligence needed.</li>
<li>There will be index inclusions. Unlike <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-sumishin-net-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34572:1" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)</a> which is going to TSE Standard, Rakuten Bank is going to Prime.</li>
</ul>


Today, Rakuten (4755 JP) and Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) announced that Rakuten Bank had received TSE approval to list (English) on TSE Prime, with expected listing date 21 April 2023.
This had been in the works since July 2022, and they selected advisors in September 2022. The low end of the offer price range seems attractive. More diligence needed.
There will be index inclusions. Unlike SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) which is going to TSE Standard, Rakuten Bank is going to Prime.


Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) - Another Net-Bank IPO, This One With TOPIX and Other Index Inclusions

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Following the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank last week, Japan’s big four banks have fallen by around 15% due to their exposure to US government bonds.</li>
<li>However, the Japanese banks have managed the interest rate risk far better than the collapsed US banks and therefore, we feel the price drop is unwarranted.</li>
<li>With Japan likely to scrap its zero rates policy, we think this could be a rather intriguing opportunity to make generous gains on the long side in Japan’s banking sector.</li>
</ul>


Following the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank last week, Japan’s big four banks have fallen by around 15% due to their exposure to US government bonds.
However, the Japanese banks have managed the interest rate risk far better than the collapsed US banks and therefore, we feel the price drop is unwarranted.
With Japan likely to scrap its zero rates policy, we think this could be a rather intriguing opportunity to make generous gains on the long side in Japan’s banking sector.


Japan Banks: Markets Overreact to SVB’s Collapse

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.</li>
<li>But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.</li>
<li>And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.</li>
</ul>


Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.
But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.
And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.


The BIG March 2023 "Wednesday Thursday Trade"

Japan

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) is a holding company established through the merger of Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings. As a financial group, the Company provides a variety of financial and investment services including commercial banking, trust banking, international finance, and assets management services.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

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Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

Rakuten Bank IPO: The Investment Case

The investment case rest on Rakuten Ecosystem's competitive advantage, growth in accounts/deposits, robust loan book growth, rising margins and low...

Arun George

Rakuten Bank IPO - Recent Filings Updates and Quick Thoughts on Valuation

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP), the online banking arm of Rakuten (4755 JP), aims to raise up to around US$900m in its Japan listing in April 2023.

Sumeet Singh

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) - Another Net-Bank IPO, This One With TOPIX and Other Index Inclusions

Rakuten Bank IPO has been in the works since July 2022. It's here. Timing could have been better. Rakuten Bank specialises in B2C transactions,...

Travis Lundy

Japan Banks: Markets Overreact to SVB’s Collapse

Following the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank last week, Japan’s big four banks have fallen by around 15% due to their exposure to US government...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

The BIG March 2023 "Wednesday Thursday Trade"

This year, there is a US$12bn buy to do on 29 March at the close. Historically, performance is pretty good both on a 2-day period, then slumps....

Travis Lundy

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