Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Equity Bottom-Up

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

Consolidated results for the nine months to end-December 2018, announced by SMFG (8306 JP) on 31 January 2019, represented 91% of management’s full-year target of ¥700 billion for consolidated net profits.  Nevertheless, 3Q results (October-December 2018) were well down year-on-year, with rising funding costs and higher credit costs offsetting much of the positives from the earlier deconsolidation of its two retail banking subsidiaries.  Full-year guidance remains unchanged.  SMFG is now poised to exceed its ¥700 billion FY3/2019 consolidated net profit target, although probably not by much.
The megabanks are always a ‘crowded trade’ for foreign investors when it comes to exposure to the Japanese banking sector: the choice usually coming down to either MUFG or SMFG.  Mizuho, which significantly outperformed both MUFG and SMFG throughout CY2018, is nominally the cheapest of the three megabanks on standard valuation methods; however, the difference between all three at present is marginal.  We expect that all three megabank groups will continue to see further downward pressure on domestic margins, while their overseas operations (especially in Asia) remain vulnerable to any further increases in US$ interest rates.  In the absence of any significant catalysts to prompt foreign investors to actively buy the shares, we expect all three megabanks to disappoint in terms of share price performance in CY2019.

Consolidated results for the nine months to end-December 2018, announced by SMFG (8306 JP) on 31 January 2019, represented 91% of management’s full-year target of ¥700 billion for consolidated net profits.  Nevertheless, 3Q results (October-December 2018) were well down year-on-year, with rising funding costs and higher credit costs offsetting much of the positives from the earlier deconsolidation of its two retail banking subsidiaries.  Full-year guidance remains unchanged.  SMFG is now poised to exceed its ¥700 billion FY3/2019 consolidated net profit target, although probably not by much.
The megabanks are always a ‘crowded trade’ for foreign investors when it comes to exposure to the Japanese banking sector: the choice usually coming down to either MUFG or SMFG.  Mizuho, which significantly outperformed both MUFG and SMFG throughout CY2018, is nominally the cheapest of the three megabanks on standard valuation methods; however, the difference between all three at present is marginal.  We expect that all three megabank groups will continue to see further downward pressure on domestic margins, while their overseas operations (especially in Asia) remain vulnerable to any further increases in US$ interest rates.  In the absence of any significant catalysts to prompt foreign investors to actively buy the shares, we expect all three megabanks to disappoint in terms of share price performance in CY2019.

SMFG (8316 JP): On Target But Drifting Off Radar

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/077/686/original/2019-02-02_09-34-42.png?1549067763" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="77686"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">
Note: The Results &amp; Revision Score is the average of our Results Score and Forecasts/Revision Score and is updated daily for each company and then cap-weighted-aggregated into Peer Groups, Sectors and the Market Composite. Both scores have a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. The Results Score is calculated quarterly, using the most recent eight quarters of company data for revenues, operating income and operating margin and measures the rate, degree and consistency of change for each metric. The Forecast/Revision Score is based on Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted.</div>DRIP, DRIP, DRIP - We 'lead' this fortnight's update with our All-Market Composite Results &amp; Revision Score. Calculated daily, the score is a 'real-time' measure of the state of, and the outlook for, listed Japanese corporations. As the scoring methodology includes earnings momentum 'factors', the data series can be a useful leading indicator of forward earnings. The correlation with the market over the last four years is 0.578, with the indicator leading more often than lagging.   Since peaking on 16th November 2017, the Results &amp; Revisions Score has fallen by 62% and has now returned to the level of May 2017. In the last ten years, the score has only been lower than at present one-third of the time - mostly during the fiscal year ended March 2017 when the total market value averaged ¥550t, close to the December 2018 low. If we are to repeat the relatively-mild cyclical downturn of 2016, the Results &amp; Revision Score will turn negative in May of this year, and the 25th December 2018 low will be retested.<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/077/701/original/2019-02-02_14-11-25.png?1549084295" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="77701"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>PAST THE PEAK - Our earnings indicator peaked 14 months ago, two months ahead of the market's high point on 26th January 2018. It now appears that aggregate reported earnings, as well as aggregate company forecasts for the current year, are now turning decisively lower after nine quarters of uninterrupted growth. Forecast Net Income for the current year is now 7% below the high point in trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Net Income from this cycle, which was reached two months ago. Operating Income is, as usual, 'lagging' and forecasts are still marginally ahead of TTM. The TTM all-market price-earnings ratio reached 11.5 times on Christmas Day, which will prove to be the cycle low point. We expect the return to median levels, to be achieved more through lower 'E' as opposed to a higher 'P'.  Mr Market is currently implying that Japanese corporate profits are due to fall by 23% on average from the cycle peak, or by 30% if we are to revisit the December low-point. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/077/746/original/2019-02-03_07-23-31.png?1549146223" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="77746"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>THE FIRST CUT - 23% of listed companies reported their most recent quarterly earnings results in the last two weeks. For these companies, TTM revenues grew by 5.1% year-on-year, but only by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, the lowest qoq growth rate in over a year. TTM Operating Income is now 0.8% lower than the TTM total of one year ago and declined by 4.4% qoq. Operating margins fell by 49bps year-on-year.  Current forecasts for this group of companies imply 3.1% yoy top line growth, but only 0.3% compared to the quarter just declared. For Operating Income, the rates are -2.0% and 0.6%, reflecting the normal TTM-to-forecast 'lag'. Corporate Japan's profits are now rolling over and will be in a 'recession' by the fiscal year-end.  <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/077/722/original/2019-02-02_18-25-46.png?1549099572" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="77722"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>INTERREGNUM - Our bear market rally has paused to look at and digest the earnings-announcement news flow and will likely be trendless for the next few weeks as 'good' reactions offset 'bad'. In due course, we expect the preponderance of negative momentum to tip the scales.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/077/724/original/2019-02-02_18-41-12.png?1549100508" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="77724"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>TORAKU @110 - The Toraku advance-decline indicator has continued to recover and is within ten points of the overbought zone, which has only been breached once since the market peak of January 2018. This signal is 'amber' and could be 'red' by the end of next week. <div class="content-highlight">
OUTLOOK &amp; RECOMMENDATIONS
<ul>
<li>We continue to recommend an underweight position in Japan in global portfolios.</li>
<li>The equity market decline at the end of last year was well in advance of the underlying trends in the economy and corporate profits; the recent 10% rally has corrected that imbalance. Nevertheless, the global cycle has turned down sharply, and many economies will be in a recession by the end of this quarter. We expect Japanese corporate earnings to follow suit.  </li>
<li>Although some of the coming decline in aggregate earnings has been well-discounted, our Results &amp; Revision Score has yet to turn negative. Accordingly, we expect the market to retest the December 2018 low, probably in May when the FY2020 forecasts are announced and our score starts 'seeing red'.</li>
<li>In the near term and despite the rally in the more cyclical sectors, we continue to favour undervalued domestically-orientated companies in the Information Technology, Internet, Media, and Telecommunications sectors. We would avoid or short Banks and Non-Bank Finance.</li>
</ul>
</div>In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance over the last two weeks, and, in addition to our regular roundup of results, revisions and stock performance including brief comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3700" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1">Anritsu (6754 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12001" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12001:1">Alps Alpine (6770 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24540" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24540:1">SanBio (4592 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/454" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1">Lixil (5938 JP)</a> (yes, again), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/752" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/219" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8197" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1">Cyberagent (4751 JP)</a>.

Source: Japan Analytics
Note: The Results &amp; Revision Score is the average of our Results Score and Forecasts/Revision Score and is updated daily for each company and then cap-weighted-aggregated into Peer Groups, Sectors and the Market Composite. Both scores have a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. The Results Score is calculated quarterly, using the most recent eight quarters of company data for revenues, operating income and operating margin and measures the rate, degree and consistency of change for each metric. The Forecast/Revision Score is based on Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted.DRIP, DRIP, DRIP - We 'lead' this fortnight's update with our All-Market Composite Results &amp; Revision Score. Calculated daily, the score is a 'real-time' measure of the state of, and the outlook for, listed Japanese corporations. As the scoring methodology includes earnings momentum 'factors', the data series can be a useful leading indicator of forward earnings. The correlation with the market over the last four years is 0.578, with the indicator leading more often than lagging.   Since peaking on 16th November 2017, the Results &amp; Revisions Score has fallen by 62% and has now returned to the level of May 2017. In the last ten years, the score has only been lower than at present one-third of the time - mostly during the fiscal year ended March 2017 when the total market value averaged ¥550t, close to the December 2018 low. If we are to repeat the relatively-mild cyclical downturn of 2016, the Results &amp; Revision Score will turn negative in May of this year, and the 25th December 2018 low will be retested.
Source: Japan Analytics
PAST THE PEAK - Our earnings indicator peaked 14 months ago, two months ahead of the market's high point on 26th January 2018. It now appears that aggregate reported earnings, as well as aggregate company forecasts for the current year, are now turning decisively lower after nine quarters of uninterrupted growth. Forecast Net Income for the current year is now 7% below the high point in trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Net Income from this cycle, which was reached two months ago. Operating Income is, as usual, 'lagging' and forecasts are still marginally ahead of TTM. The TTM all-market price-earnings ratio reached 11.5 times on Christmas Day, which will prove to be the cycle low point. We expect the return to median levels, to be achieved more through lower 'E' as opposed to a higher 'P'.  Mr Market is currently implying that Japanese corporate profits are due to fall by 23% on average from the cycle peak, or by 30% if we are to revisit the December low-point. Source: Japan AnalyticsTHE FIRST CUT - 23% of listed companies reported their most recent quarterly earnings results in the last two weeks. For these companies, TTM revenues grew by 5.1% year-on-year, but only by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, the lowest qoq growth rate in over a year. TTM Operating Income is now 0.8% lower than the TTM total of one year ago and declined by 4.4% qoq. Operating margins fell by 49bps year-on-year.  Current forecasts for this group of companies imply 3.1% yoy top line growth, but only 0.3% compared to the quarter just declared. For Operating Income, the rates are -2.0% and 0.6%, reflecting the normal TTM-to-forecast 'lag'. Corporate Japan's profits are now rolling over and will be in a 'recession' by the fiscal year-end.  Source: Japan AnalyticsINTERREGNUM - Our bear market rally has paused to look at and digest the earnings-announcement news flow and will likely be trendless for the next few weeks as 'good' reactions offset 'bad'. In due course, we expect the preponderance of negative momentum to tip the scales.Source: Japan AnalyticsTORAKU @110 - The Toraku advance-decline indicator has continued to recover and is within ten points of the overbought zone, which has only been breached once since the market peak of January 2018. This signal is 'amber' and could be 'red' by the end of next week. 
OUTLOOK &amp; RECOMMENDATIONS

We continue to recommend an underweight position in Japan in global portfolios.
The equity market decline at the end of last year was well in advance of the underlying trends in the economy and corporate profits; the recent 10% rally has corrected that imbalance. Nevertheless, the global cycle has turned down sharply, and many economies will be in a recession by the end of this quarter. We expect Japanese corporate earnings to follow suit.  
Although some of the coming decline in aggregate earnings has been well-discounted, our Results &amp; Revision Score has yet to turn negative. Accordingly, we expect the market to retest the December 2018 low, probably in May when the FY2020 forecasts are announced and our score starts 'seeing red'.
In the near term and despite the rally in the more cyclical sectors, we continue to favour undervalued domestically-orientated companies in the Information Technology, Internet, Media, and Telecommunications sectors. We would avoid or short Banks and Non-Bank Finance.

In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance over the last two weeks, and, in addition to our regular roundup of results, revisions and stock performance including brief comments on Anritsu (6754 JP), Alps Alpine (6770 JP), SanBio (4592 JP), Lixil (5938 JP) (yes, again), Fanuc (6954 JP), Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) , and Cyberagent (4751 JP).

Japan Fortnightly Update: Drip, Drip, Drip...

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japanese bank stocks performed so poorly in 2018, with the Topix Bank Index falling 25.7% while the overall market declined by a lesser 16.4%, that some may be tempted to speculate that Japanese banks might be a key sector in leading a market recovery in 2019. We don’t think so. The fundamental outlook for banks’ profits remains clouded by a strengthening Yen against the US$, declining revenue growth, anaemic manufacturing sector loan demand, relentless downward pressure on net interest margins, weak fee business, rising valuation losses on both stocks and bonds, and ‘normalising’ credit costs. Simply put, there are no growth catalysts to drive the Japanese banking sector forward on a sustainable basis in terms of stock price appreciation. This all adds up to uninspiring valuations, even at current levels.  ‘Caveat emptor! (May the buyer beware!)’ remains our key recommendation to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2019.

Japanese bank stocks performed so poorly in 2018, with the Topix Bank Index falling 25.7% while the overall market declined by a lesser 16.4%, that some may be tempted to speculate that Japanese banks might be a key sector in leading a market recovery in 2019. We don’t think so. The fundamental outlook for banks’ profits remains clouded by a strengthening Yen against the US$, declining revenue growth, anaemic manufacturing sector loan demand, relentless downward pressure on net interest margins, weak fee business, rising valuation losses on both stocks and bonds, and ‘normalising’ credit costs. Simply put, there are no growth catalysts to drive the Japanese banking sector forward on a sustainable basis in terms of stock price appreciation. This all adds up to uninspiring valuations, even at current levels.  ‘Caveat emptor! (May the buyer beware!)’ remains our key recommendation to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for 2019.

Japanese Banks:  These Lifeless Things (The Ozymandias Syndrome)

Interim results announced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/217" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:217:1">Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (8316 JP)</a> on 14 November 2018 represented 68% of management’s full-year target of ¥700 billion for consolidated net profits.  While gross group business profits were essentially flat, with weaker net interest income and lower trading profits offsetting stronger fee income, the key drivers of the 1H FY3/2019 profit figures were significantly lower GAE (general &amp; administrative) expenses and profits from sales of equities.  Full-year guidance remains unchanged.  SMFG has a long-standing habit of guiding conservatively and then comfortably exceeding its forecasts.  Based on 1H FY3/2019 results, SMFG looks in a strong position to comfortably exceed that ¥700 billion full-year consolidated net profit target.
Because of their size and liquidity, the megabanks are always a ‘crowded trade’ for foreign investors when it comes to exposure to the Japanese banking sector: the choice usually coming down to either SMFG or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/218" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1">Mitsubishi Ufj Financial (8306 JP)</a>(or sometimes both just to be on the safe side).  At 4%, SMFG continues to offer the highest dividend yield of the three megabanks

Interim results announced by Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (8316 JP) on 14 November 2018 represented 68% of management’s full-year target of ¥700 billion for consolidated net profits.  While gross group business profits were essentially flat, with weaker net interest income and lower trading profits offsetting stronger fee income, the key drivers of the 1H FY3/2019 profit figures were significantly lower GAE (general &amp; administrative) expenses and profits from sales of equities.  Full-year guidance remains unchanged.  SMFG has a long-standing habit of guiding conservatively and then comfortably exceeding its forecasts.  Based on 1H FY3/2019 results, SMFG looks in a strong position to comfortably exceed that ¥700 billion full-year consolidated net profit target.
Because of their size and liquidity, the megabanks are always a ‘crowded trade’ for foreign investors when it comes to exposure to the Japanese banking sector: the choice usually coming down to either SMFG or Mitsubishi Ufj Financial (8306 JP)(or sometimes both just to be on the safe side).  At 4%, SMFG continues to offer the highest dividend yield of the three megabanks

SMFG (8316 JP):  Standing Out in a Crowd

Mizuho Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

At first glance, the interim results announced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/219" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a>, or MHFG for short, on 14 November 2018 look reasonably good: consolidated net profits up 13.5% YoY and 62% of the group’s ¥550 billion full-year consolidated net profit target.  Dig a little deeper into the numbers, however, and there are still concerns: principal subsidiary Mizuho Bank is still losing money on its domestic banking operations, group core earnings are barely in positive territory, and bottom-line results owe much to trading profits, loss-reserve write-backs and sales of strategic shareholdings. Structurally, MHFG remains the weakest of the three Japanese megabank groups, and we expect this to be reflected in future relative performance of its stock price against the other two, namely <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/218" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1">Mitsubishi Ufj Financial (8306 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/217" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:217:1">Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (8316 JP)</a>.

At first glance, the interim results announced by Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP), or MHFG for short, on 14 November 2018 look reasonably good: consolidated net profits up 13.5% YoY and 62% of the group’s ¥550 billion full-year consolidated net profit target.  Dig a little deeper into the numbers, however, and there are still concerns: principal subsidiary Mizuho Bank is still losing money on its domestic banking operations, group core earnings are barely in positive territory, and bottom-line results owe much to trading profits, loss-reserve write-backs and sales of strategic shareholdings. Structurally, MHFG remains the weakest of the three Japanese megabank groups, and we expect this to be reflected in future relative performance of its stock price against the other two, namely Mitsubishi Ufj Financial (8306 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (8316 JP).

Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP):  An Uphill Climb

Japan

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

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Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)

SMFG (8316 JP): On Target But Drifting Off Radar

Consolidated results for the nine months to end-December 2018, announced by SMFG (8306 JP) on 31 January 2019, represented 91% of management’s...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Japan Fortnightly Update: Drip, Drip, Drip...

DRIP, DRIP, DRIP - We 'lead' this fortnight's update with our All-Market Composite Results & Revision Score. Calculated daily, the score is a...

Campbell Gunn

Japanese Banks: These Lifeless Things (The Ozymandias Syndrome)

Japanese bank stocks performed so poorly in 2018, with the Topix Bank Index falling 25.7% while the overall market declined by a lesser 16.4%, that...

J. Brian Waterhouse

SMFG (8316 JP): Standing Out in a Crowd

Interim results announced by Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (8316 JP) on 14 November 2018 represented 68% of management’s full-year target of ¥700...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP): An Uphill Climb

At first glance, the interim results announced by Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP), or MHFG for short, on 14 November 2018 look reasonably good:...

J. Brian Waterhouse

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