Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

In today’s report we outline  our belief that the combination of extreme oversold conditions and several key sectors/industries holding above major long-term support lead us to believe an important bottom has been established. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Staples, Financials, and Health Care: Large- &amp; Small-Cap Soft Drinks &amp; Bottlers, Electronic Exchanges/Markets, and Large- and Mid-Cap Biotech.

In today’s report we outline  our belief that the combination of extreme oversold conditions and several key sectors/industries holding above major long-term support lead us to believe an important bottom has been established. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Staples, Financials, and Health Care: Large- &amp; Small-Cap Soft Drinks &amp; Bottlers, Electronic Exchanges/Markets, and Large- and Mid-Cap Biotech.

A Bottom Has Been Established; Possible Retest?

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

This webcast runs through some ideas on instruments that are lagging some risk signals we outlined in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/top-short-triggers-in-asia-for-a-q1-pullback" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35987">Top Short Triggers in Asia for a Q1 Pullback</a> on January 21 as we moved into a late January cycle peak and harder downturn call/cycle. Risk triggers and shorts were outlined in China, HSI, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and SPX for a harder February down cycle. China's bearish MACD triangulation was at the forefront of this bear scenario.AUD/JPY, NDX, SPX, India, EWY (Korea ETF) and Europe are spaces that show better risk to reward for shorts today assuming we get a mild uptick and head south again.USD/JPY may not hold up much long and vulnerable below that big wedge support breach level at 109.70 with 106.80 eyed.US 10yr yields are also breaking critical support.

This webcast runs through some ideas on instruments that are lagging some risk signals we outlined in Top Short Triggers in Asia for a Q1 Pullback on January 21 as we moved into a late January cycle peak and harder downturn call/cycle. Risk triggers and shorts were outlined in China, HSI, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and SPX for a harder February down cycle. China's bearish MACD triangulation was at the forefront of this bear scenario.AUD/JPY, NDX, SPX, India, EWY (Korea ETF) and Europe are spaces that show better risk to reward for shorts today assuming we get a mild uptick and head south again.USD/JPY may not hold up much long and vulnerable below that big wedge support breach level at 109.70 with 106.80 eyed.US 10yr yields are also breaking critical support.

We believe U.S. equities remain bullish but if they are to continue their ascent we would prefer that those areas also associated with economic expansion could also grab some of the upward momentum. This includes; Energy, Materials, Industrial Manufacturing and the Transportation Sector and even Small-caps. A narrowing of breadth as we have all seen in the past does not typically end well.  Open the attached file to read our complete U.S. Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

We believe U.S. equities remain bullish but if they are to continue their ascent we would prefer that those areas also associated with economic expansion could also grab some of the upward momentum. This includes; Energy, Materials, Industrial Manufacturing and the Transportation Sector and even Small-caps. A narrowing of breadth as we have all seen in the past does not typically end well.  Open the attached file to read our complete U.S. Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish, but Extended

Encouraging developments continue to pour in. Over the past week we have seen dramatic improvements that could be setting the stage for a broad-based advance. We highlight these improvements in this report, along with what we would like to see in order to have confidence in labeling this a bull market.  In today’s report we also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Financials, Manufacturing, and Technology: Refining, Banks, Super-Regional, Industrial, Diversified, Large-Cap, and Data Storage Solutions &amp; Devices, Large-Cap.

Encouraging developments continue to pour in. Over the past week we have seen dramatic improvements that could be setting the stage for a broad-based advance. We highlight these improvements in this report, along with what we would like to see in order to have confidence in labeling this a bull market.  In today’s report we also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Financials, Manufacturing, and Technology: Refining, Banks, Super-Regional, Industrial, Diversified, Large-Cap, and Data Storage Solutions &amp; Devices, Large-Cap.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Dramatic Improvement

SOX index bull turn at 1,520 support sets the stage for a reach for recent highs. 1,588 is the level to clear to challenge recent highs that have to date chiseled out a triple top, representing a critical make or break level for the SOX index that will impact the NDX (underperforming the SPX).Relative to SPX, SMH is an O/P as long as trendline support holds. Must clear relative highs. Any break of this trendline would imply we see a triple top at 123.Relative trendline support is a key pivot level for the bull/bear bias that would bleed into absolute price action and impact NDX price action.Bull wedge breakout needs follow through above SMH 121.32 to reach for the 123 triple top level. Buy volumes are under scrutiny and need to pick up on a bull thrust or risk an early rally fade.

SOX index bull turn at 1,520 support sets the stage for a reach for recent highs. 1,588 is the level to clear to challenge recent highs that have to date chiseled out a triple top, representing a critical make or break level for the SOX index that will impact the NDX (underperforming the SPX).Relative to SPX, SMH is an O/P as long as trendline support holds. Must clear relative highs. Any break of this trendline would imply we see a triple top at 123.Relative trendline support is a key pivot level for the bull/bear bias that would bleed into absolute price action and impact NDX price action.Bull wedge breakout needs follow through above SMH 121.32 to reach for the 123 triple top level. Buy volumes are under scrutiny and need to pick up on a bull thrust or risk an early rally fade.

SOX (SMH) Bull Wedge to Reach for a New High

United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

A Bottom Has Been Established; Possible Retest?

In today’s report we outline our belief that the combination of extreme oversold conditions and several key sectors/industries holding above major...

Vermilion Research

Where One Can Add to Shorts Today

This webcast runs through some ideas on instruments that are lagging some risk signals we outlined in Top Short Triggers in Asia for a Q1 Pullback...

Thomas Schroeder

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish, but Extended

We believe U.S. equities remain bullish but if they are to continue their ascent we would prefer that those areas also associated with economic...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Dramatic Improvement

Encouraging developments continue to pour in. Over the past week we have seen dramatic improvements that could be setting the stage for a...

Vermilion Research

SOX (SMH) Bull Wedge to Reach for a New High

SOX index bull turn at 1,520 support sets the stage for a reach for recent highs. 1,588 is the level to clear to challenge recent highs that have...

Thomas Schroeder