Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Cyclical indicators are softening this month - new orders index for the Philly Fed fell nearly 23 points while Japan’s PMI new export orders component fell for the first time in 22mths to sub 50.</li>
<li>A sustained tariff war and its unpredictable impact on highly integrated global supply chains as with Daimler’s profit warning last week is now generating downside volatility.</li>
<li>The 20% slump in mainland shares from recent highs has been less about trade war fears as deteriorating liquidity, reflected in…</li>
</ul>


Cyclical indicators are softening this month - new orders index for the Philly Fed fell nearly 23 points while Japan’s PMI new export orders component fell for the first time in 22mths to sub 50.
A sustained tariff war and its unpredictable impact on highly integrated global supply chains as with Daimler’s profit warning last week is now generating downside volatility.
The 20% slump in mainland shares from recent highs has been less about trade war fears as deteriorating liquidity, reflected in…


Trade Risks Start to Impact, as China Biotech Ambitions Grow…

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

We presented our tech heavy case over the weekend in our weekly edition with updated charts this morning. NDX – Worth paying attention to the fact that recent NDX strength has not pierced upper Bollinger bands (two fades and third would set up a correction). Fading below this band implies the rise is getting tired as breadth narrows. NDX RSI has already cracked support.  SOX also backed off of key highs and looks heavy. A series of intra-day selling reversals would be a more negative combination…

We presented our tech heavy case over the weekend in our weekly edition with updated charts this morning. NDX – Worth paying attention to the fact that recent NDX strength has not pierced upper Bollinger bands (two fades and third would set up a correction). Fading below this band implies the rise is getting tired as breadth narrows. NDX RSI has already cracked support.  SOX also backed off of key highs and looks heavy. A series of intra-day selling reversals would be a more negative combination…

NDX Trendline Crack and XLF Triangulation

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

The final rally of this bull market is under way.  That has been signalled by the appearance of the three-month Triangle in the S&amp;P 500, and its recent break up through 2,718.  Its final target range is 2,872-3,148.  The lack of new index extremes over the past month mean that there are no new indicator signals of note, but the likelihood of new highs is at least consistent with our case that the Q1 extreme momentum marked the end of a buying climax.  The extreme Trend Strength readings at the time suggested we were seeing a mirror image of 2008, and an “upward crash”.  Just as the extreme momentum of 2008 was a precursor to new lows in 2009, so new highs would be normal now.  We remain at Hold, and traders could even buy on a dip to 2,645-2,655, but 2,585 closing is now the stop on that view.  Below there we would turn extremely bearish, looking for an extended decline to the 2016 low at 1,810 into 2019/2020.  Hopefully, we will get to make that call higher up.

The final rally of this bull market is under way.  That has been signalled by the appearance of the three-month Triangle in the S&amp;P 500, and its recent break up through 2,718.  Its final target range is 2,872-3,148.  The lack of new index extremes over the past month mean that there are no new indicator signals of note, but the likelihood of new highs is at least consistent with our case that the Q1 extreme momentum marked the end of a buying climax.  The extreme Trend Strength readings at the time suggested we were seeing a mirror image of 2008, and an “upward crash”.  Just as the extreme momentum of 2008 was a precursor to new lows in 2009, so new highs would be normal now.  We remain at Hold, and traders could even buy on a dip to 2,645-2,655, but 2,585 closing is now the stop on that view.  Below there we would turn extremely bearish, looking for an extended decline to the 2016 low at 1,810 into 2019/2020.  Hopefully, we will get to make that call higher up.

S&P 500:  Heading for a Final High at 2,872-3,148

We are pretty convinced that this year will see a major top in the US.  However, the February surge in NASDAQ 100 did not have the classic pattern of a final rally - it was more typical of a consolidation.  In the two charts below, we show how both bull and bear Elliott Triangles would finish off in the S&amp;P 500.  The Bear version assumes that the Triangle will separate two sharply declining bear market legs, the second of which could take as much as 470 points off SPX.The pattern does not have…

We are pretty convinced that this year will see a major top in the US.  However, the February surge in NASDAQ 100 did not have the classic pattern of a final rally - it was more typical of a consolidation.  In the two charts below, we show how both bull and bear Elliott Triangles would finish off in the S&amp;P 500.  The Bear version assumes that the Triangle will separate two sharply declining bear market legs, the second of which could take as much as 470 points off SPX.The pattern does not have…

Over recent weeks we have noted a further deterioration of US breadth/internals on the back of a weaker tech and overall leadership shifting as defensive pick up some of the slack and small caps have done most of the heavy lifting breadth wise. We now see deeper cracks in stocks trading above their 50 day and 200 day moving averages (dma) which means more stocks are entering a bear trend if they continue to trade below their 200 dma.Here we look at NYSE new highs, advance/decline line and stocks…

Over recent weeks we have noted a further deterioration of US breadth/internals on the back of a weaker tech and overall leadership shifting as defensive pick up some of the slack and small caps have done most of the heavy lifting breadth wise. We now see deeper cracks in stocks trading above their 50 day and 200 day moving averages (dma) which means more stocks are entering a bear trend if they continue to trade below their 200 dma.Here we look at NYSE new highs, advance/decline line and stocks…

United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

Trade Risks Start to Impact, as China Biotech Ambitions Grow…

Cyclical indicators are softening this month - new orders index for the Philly Fed fell nearly 23 points while Japan’s PMI new export orders...

Sean Maher

NDX Trendline Crack and XLF Triangulation

We presented our tech heavy case over the weekend in our weekly edition with updated charts this morning. NDX – Worth paying attention to the fact...

Thomas Schroeder

S&P 500: Heading for a Final High at 2,872-3,148

The final rally of this bull market is under way. That has been signalled by the appearance of the three-month Triangle in the S&P 500, and...

Peter Beuttell

S&P 500: Topping or Pausing?

We are pretty convinced that this year will see a major top in the US. However, the February surge in NASDAQ 100 did not have the classic pattern...

Peter Beuttell

US Equity Weak Internals

Over recent weeks we have noted a further deterioration of US breadth/internals on the back of a weaker tech and overall leadership shifting as...

Thomas Schroeder