Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Take aways: Risk premium in crude oil compressing due to Israel calling Iran’s game of chicken. Fade the strength in assets connected to the real economy.</li>
<li>Supply is still the biggest risk in crude oil. Strike risk in the US means Mexico is an opportunity.</li>
<li>Israel launched ground operations in southern Lebanon overnight, aiming to push Hezbollah away from areas near the border.</li>
</ul>


Take aways: Risk premium in crude oil compressing due to Israel calling Iran’s game of chicken. Fade the strength in assets connected to the real economy.
Supply is still the biggest risk in crude oil. Strike risk in the US means Mexico is an opportunity.
Israel launched ground operations in southern Lebanon overnight, aiming to push Hezbollah away from areas near the border.


The Drill: This Chinese stimulus is aimed at the financial economy and NOT commodities

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>US natural gas prices jumped 19.2% for the week ending 27/Sept, marking the largest weekly increase since November 2023, driven by strong demand and concerns over supply cuts.</li>
<li>Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio fell to 1.03 (27/Sep) from 1.69 the previous week as put volumes fell by 45.5% WoW, while call volumes declined by 10.1%.</li>
<li>Put OI increased for contracts expiring in October and November, while call OI rose for expiries in December, January, February, and March.</li>
</ul>


US natural gas prices jumped 19.2% for the week ending 27/Sept, marking the largest weekly increase since November 2023, driven by strong demand and concerns over supply cuts.
Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio fell to 1.03 (27/Sep) from 1.69 the previous week as put volumes fell by 45.5% WoW, while call volumes declined by 10.1%.
Put OI increased for contracts expiring in October and November, while call OI rose for expiries in December, January, February, and March.


[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/39] Henry Hub Jumps on Shrinking Storage Surplus and Healthy Demand

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

<ul><li>Did China Just Trigger Commodity Markets?</li><li>China’s central bank last week announced a new stimulus package to the economy to curb the growth decline that is still going on.</li><li>Chinese stocks jumped and also “Chinese-linked commodity prices” like soy, copper and steel gained momentum as Governor Pan Gongsheng announced plans to lower borrowing costs and inject more funds into the economy, as well as to ease households' mortgage repayment burden.</li></ul>

Did China Just Trigger Commodity Markets?China’s central bank last week announced a new stimulus package to the economy to curb the growth decline that is still going on.Chinese stocks jumped and also “Chinese-linked commodity prices” like soy, copper and steel gained momentum as Governor Pan Gongsheng announced plans to lower borrowing costs and inject more funds into the economy, as well as to ease households' mortgage repayment burden.

Did China Just Trigger Commodity Markets?

<ul>
<li>US rig count declined by one to 587 for the week ending 27/Sep, marking the sixth drop in seven weeks. Despite this, the rig count increased by six in Q3.</li>
<li>The US oil rig count fell by four to 484 after staying flat last week. Gas rigs rose by three to 99, marking its second increase in six weeks.</li>
<li>For the week ending 27/Sep, US energy producers added one rig in Texas and cut two in New Mexico and one in Louisiana.  </li>
</ul>


US rig count declined by one to 587 for the week ending 27/Sep, marking the sixth drop in seven weeks. Despite this, the rig count increased by six in Q3.
The US oil rig count fell by four to 484 after staying flat last week. Gas rigs rose by three to 99, marking its second increase in six weeks.
For the week ending 27/Sep, US energy producers added one rig in Texas and cut two in New Mexico and one in Louisiana.  


US Rig Count Drops for Second Straight Week as Oil Rigs Decline

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Commodity markets are down despite stimulatory measures from China, with oil prices falling due to increased supply from Libya and OPEC plus alliance</li><li>China's demand outlook for oil remains steady, with forecasts for oil demand growth unchanged despite stimulus measures</li><li>Base metals, particularly copper, have seen a price increase due to stronger demand impulses from China, with bullish outlook and potential upside risks for the first half of 2025</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Commodity markets are down despite stimulatory measures from China, with oil prices falling due to increased supply from Libya and OPEC plus allianceChina's demand outlook for oil remains steady, with forecasts for oil demand growth unchanged despite stimulus measuresBase metals, particularly copper, have seen a price increase due to stronger demand impulses from China, with bullish outlook and potential upside risks for the first half of 2025This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX and Commodities: Everything Everywhere All at once

United States

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

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Natural Gas (NATURAL GAS COMDTY)

The Drill: This Chinese stimulus is aimed at the financial economy and NOT commodities

Take aways: Risk premium in crude oil compressing due to Israel calling Iran’s game of chicken Fade the strength in assets connected to the real...

Steno Research

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/39] Henry Hub Jumps on Shrinking Storage Surplus and Healthy Demand

US Nat Gas prices jumped 19.2% last week led by favourable demand forecasts, falling storage surplus and rising LNG exports. The Put/Call volume...

Mint Finance

Did China Just Trigger Commodity Markets?

Did China Just Trigger Commodity Markets? China’s central bank last week announced a new stimulus package to the economy to curb the growth decline...

The Commodity Report

US Rig Count Drops for Second Straight Week as Oil Rigs Decline

For the week ending 27/Sept, the US rig count fell by 1 to 587. Oil rigs dropped by 4, while gas rigs rose by 3. In Q3, the rig count increased by...

Mint Finance

Global FX and Commodities: Everything Everywhere All at once

The bazooka stimulus in China has impacted oil, ag, and gas markets, with crude oil prices dropping due to expectations of increased supply, while...

At Any Rate

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