Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Neste Corporation (NESTE-FI) (NTOIY-US) produces and markets renewable fuels and oil products globally and is an enabler of decarbonization across multiple industries. </li><li>Neste’s “drop-in” fuels can reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by up to 80-90% compared with fossil fuel emissions</li><li>Neste management hosted an overall upbeat 3Q25 results briefing for analysts and investors. </li></ul>

Neste Corporation (NESTE-FI) (NTOIY-US) produces and markets renewable fuels and oil products globally and is an enabler of decarbonization across multiple industries. Neste’s “drop-in” fuels can reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by up to 80-90% compared with fossil fuel emissionsNeste management hosted an overall upbeat 3Q25 results briefing for analysts and investors. 

NTOIY/NESTE: 3Q25 Results; Solid Momentum Continues

<ul><li>Neste Corporation (NESTE-FI) (NTOIY-US) produces and markets renewable fuels and oil products globally and is an enabler of decarbonization across multiple industries.</li><li>Originally founded as a traditional oil refiner in Finland, the company was an early adopter and pioneer in renewable fuels and related solutions, having started commercial production of renewable diesel (RD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in 2007- 2011.</li><li>Neste’s “drop-in” fuels can reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) by up to 80-90% compared with fossil fuel emissions.</li></ul>

Neste Corporation (NESTE-FI) (NTOIY-US) produces and markets renewable fuels and oil products globally and is an enabler of decarbonization across multiple industries.Originally founded as a traditional oil refiner in Finland, the company was an early adopter and pioneer in renewable fuels and related solutions, having started commercial production of renewable diesel (RD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in 2007- 2011.Neste’s “drop-in” fuels can reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) by up to 80-90% compared with fossil fuel emissions.

Neste Corporation - Pioneer with a Leading Global Renewable Fuels Platform Repositioning for Growth

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.
Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.


Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was up 1.3% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.5%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.1%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 0.2%).</li><li>Energy Technology (12.1% of the index) was up 4.2%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.6% of the index) was up 0.5%, ClimateTech Mining was up 1.7%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.5% of the index) was up 1.3%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: AZRE, AEVA, GCEH, HLGN, ALLIF, PEV, SHLS, EAF, RUN, EVGO</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 1.3% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.5%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.1%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 0.2%).Energy Technology (12.1% of the index) was up 4.2%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.6% of the index) was up 0.5%, ClimateTech Mining was up 1.7%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.5% of the index) was up 1.3%.Top 10 Performers: AZRE, AEVA, GCEH, HLGN, ALLIF, PEV, SHLS, EAF, RUN, EVGO

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Neste Corporation

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.</li>
<li>We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.</li>
<li>Worth noting- <em>further</em> breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but that the real test will come during the eventual pullback.
We are getting the pullback now, but so far, there has yet to be any failed breakouts among the indexes discussed over the past month -- a positive sign.
Worth noting- further breakout attempts have failed on some of the leading market indexes, notably the Nasdaq 100 and India's SENSEX, but they remain well-above their breakout levels from July.


Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

Finland

Neste Oyj is an independent northern European oil refining and marketing company that focuses on high-quality traffic fuels and other high value-added petroleum products with reduced environmental impact.

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Neste Oyj (NESTE FH)

NTOIY/NESTE: 3Q25 Results; Solid Momentum Continues

Neste Corporation (NESTE-FI) (NTOIY-US) produces and markets renewable fuels and oil products globally and is an enabler of decarbonization across...

Water Tower Research

Neste Corporation - Pioneer with a Leading Global Renewable Fuels Platform Repositioning for Growth

Neste Corporation (NESTE-FI) (NTOIY-US) produces and markets renewable fuels and oil products globally and is an enabler of decarbonization across...

Water Tower Research

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Neste Corporation

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 1.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 0.5%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.1%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 0.2%).

Water Tower Research

Pullback Underway; Buy Ideas: Energy, Materials, Japan/India Motor Vehicles, Japan Health Care

Pullback Underway; Problem: U.S. Dollar $DXY, Global 10-Yr Sovereign Yields, and Commodities All on the Rise Again; Actionable Themes: Energy,...

Vermilion Research

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