Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Over the last two weeks we discussed expectations for an oversold bounce; the bounce has continued. We believe it is possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on SPX.</li>
<li>We see low probability of a meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support), but would not be surprised to see another month+ of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.</li>
<li>Shorter-Term, as long as 4460 short-term support holds, we expect a test of 4600. Today we highlight several buys within Energy.</li>
</ul>


Over the last two weeks we discussed expectations for an oversold bounce; the bounce has continued. We believe it is possible we've seen the lows for this pause/pullback on SPX.
We see low probability of a meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support), but would not be surprised to see another month+ of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.
Shorter-Term, as long as 4460 short-term support holds, we expect a test of 4600. Today we highlight several buys within Energy.


Bounce Continues; Small-Caps Test 3.5-Year RS Lows; Nasdaq/NYSE Breadth Improving; Buys in Energy

Last week we noted that in order for us to turn bullish on the broad market, we need to see breakouts to YTD highs in small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), Energy (XOP), and equal-weighted Discretionary (RCD). We now have the breakout we needed in Energy (RYE, XOP), but the other areas are still consolidating. Therefore, we still see a mixed market and we remain neutral yet constructive overall.Stocks highlighted: XOP, WTI Crude Oil, IWD, IWM, S&amp;P 500, Equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW), HLT, SEAS, DRI, PLAY, COP, EOG, PXD, OXY, DVN, CLR, CTRA, FANG, MRO, XEC, APA, AR, MUR, RRC, SWN, MTDR, PDCE, SM, BSM, CPE, VNOM, LPI, DMLP, CHX, WHD, NOA, TTI, NR, EXTN, NGS, FET, and CCLP

Last week we noted that in order for us to turn bullish on the broad market, we need to see breakouts to YTD highs in small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), Energy (XOP), and equal-weighted Discretionary (RCD). We now have the breakout we needed in Energy (RYE, XOP), but the other areas are still consolidating. Therefore, we still see a mixed market and we remain neutral yet constructive overall.Stocks highlighted: XOP, WTI Crude Oil, IWD, IWM, S&amp;P 500, Equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW), HLT, SEAS, DRI, PLAY, COP, EOG, PXD, OXY, DVN, CLR, CTRA, FANG, MRO, XEC, APA, AR, MUR, RRC, SWN, MTDR, PDCE, SM, BSM, CPE, VNOM, LPI, DMLP, CHX, WHD, NOA, TTI, NR, EXTN, NGS, FET, and CCLP

Upgrading Energy To Overweight; WTI Crude Oil and XOP With Major Long-Term Breakouts

Today's key points:<ul>
<li>Property &amp; Casualty Insurance names are staging price and RS reversal and/or breakouts.</li>
<li>Airlines are staging price and SR reversals to the upside and/or are breaking out.</li>
<li>Railroad related names are breaking out.</li>
<li>We have been bearish on the Semiconductor and Suppliers industry since February; however we are seeing some near term reversals at support levels.</li>
</ul>Highlighted charts: SUP, CMG, LOCO, MCS, EXPE, AMZN, WBA, K, NR, NOV, SLCA, BHGE, OIS, HLX, JPM, WFC, KEY, AXP, AFL, TMK, HSIC, ZBH, OMCL, ANTM, LLY, PFE, AGN, B, WM, ESND, ECHO, and SKYW.

Today's key points:
Property &amp; Casualty Insurance names are staging price and RS reversal and/or breakouts.
Airlines are staging price and SR reversals to the upside and/or are breaking out.
Railroad related names are breaking out.
We have been bearish on the Semiconductor and Suppliers industry since February; however we are seeing some near term reversals at support levels.
Highlighted charts: SUP, CMG, LOCO, MCS, EXPE, AMZN, WBA, K, NR, NOV, SLCA, BHGE, OIS, HLX, JPM, WFC, KEY, AXP, AFL, TMK, HSIC, ZBH, OMCL, ANTM, LLY, PFE, AGN, B, WM, ESND, ECHO, and SKYW.

U.S. Vital Signs - Actionable Charts of the Day

United States

Newpark Resources, Inc. provides environmental services to the oil and gas exploration and production industry, primarily in the Gulf Coast market. Services include processing and disposal of oilfield exploration and production waste and drilling fluids, along with associated engineering and technical services, and fluids processing and recycling services at the rig site.

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Newpark Resources (NR US)

Bounce Continues; Small-Caps Test 3.5-Year RS Lows; Nasdaq/NYSE Breadth Improving; Buys in Energy

Expectations over the past two weeks for an oversold bounce in $SPX have played out. 4300-4325 (1.5-year support) remains solid floor, but could...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Energy To Overweight; WTI Crude Oil and XOP With Major Long-Term Breakouts

Recent developments lead us to believe that Energy is likely to outperform moving forward: WTI crude oil is breaking above $77, and the RYE and XOP...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Vital Signs - Actionable Charts of the Day

Today's key points: Property & Casualty Insurance names are staging price and RS reversal and/or breakouts. Airlines are staging price and SR...

Vermilion Research

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