China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect NIO to report 4Q22 top line of RMB 16.7bn and GPM of 13.2%, missing consensus by (4%)/(0.8ppt), primarily due to COVID-related supply-chain issues and lower ASP. </li>
<li>We cut TP to US$ 13, due to weak momentum and the ongoing margin pressure in 1H23. We maintain BUY, as 1) intact model cycle starting from 2H23;</li>
<li>2) the upcoming ET5 station wagon in 2H23 and the mass-market/low-end brands in 2024 will expand its scale economy, which in turn will justify the sustainability of its business model.</li>
</ul>


We expect NIO to report 4Q22 top line of RMB 16.7bn and GPM of 13.2%, missing consensus by (4%)/(0.8ppt), primarily due to COVID-related supply-chain issues and lower ASP. 
We cut TP to US$ 13, due to weak momentum and the ongoing margin pressure in 1H23. We maintain BUY, as 1) intact model cycle starting from 2H23;
2) the upcoming ET5 station wagon in 2H23 and the mass-market/low-end brands in 2024 will expand its scale economy, which in turn will justify the sustainability of its business model.


[NIO (NIO US, BUY, TP US$13) Target Price Change]: Late Delivery of Key Models Hurts 1H23 Momentum

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

REPT BATTERO Energy / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>REPT BATTERO Energy (REPT HK) is looking to raise US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>REPT BATTERO Energy (REPT) is a lithium-ion battery manufacturer in China, focusing on R&amp;D, production, and sales of EV/ESS lithium-ion battery products such as battery cells, modules and packs. </li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


REPT BATTERO Energy (REPT HK) is looking to raise US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
REPT BATTERO Energy (REPT) is a lithium-ion battery manufacturer in China, focusing on R&amp;D, production, and sales of EV/ESS lithium-ion battery products such as battery cells, modules and packs. 
In this note, we will talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


REPT BATTERO Energy Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Is Only Now Aiming for Sustainable Profits

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hesai-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36743:1" rel="noopener">Hesai Group (HSAI US)</a> (HSAI) raised around US$190m in its US IPO.</li>
<li>HSAI is a manufacturer of three-dimensional light detection and ranging (Lidar) solutions. It has shipped over 103,000 Lidar units from 2017 to the end of 2022.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we will talk about the trading updates.</li>
</ul>



Hesai Group (HSAI US) (HSAI) raised around US$190m in its US IPO.
HSAI is a manufacturer of three-dimensional light detection and ranging (Lidar) solutions. It has shipped over 103,000 Lidar units from 2017 to the end of 2022.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we will talk about the trading updates.


Hesai Group IPO Trading - Managed to Break the Drought

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan (7201 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renault-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21536:1" rel="noopener">Renault</a> coming to a new arrangement regarding their working relationship, Renault will be left with a US$4.3bn Nissan stake that it will look to sell eventually.</li>
<li>The selldown will probably take a long while to materialize.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the announcement and take a very early look at the possible selldown.</li>
</ul>


With Nissan (7201 JP) and Renault coming to a new arrangement regarding their working relationship, Renault will be left with a US$4.3bn Nissan stake that it will look to sell eventually.
The selldown will probably take a long while to materialize.
In this note, we talk about the announcement and take a very early look at the possible selldown.


Nissan’s Renault Led Selldown Very Early Look - US$4.3bn Prolonged Overhang or Lack Thereof

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hesai-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36743:1" rel="noopener">Hesai Group (HSAI US)</a> is looking to raise around US$170m in its upcoming US IPO.</li>
<li>HSAI is a manufacturer of three-dimensional light detection and ranging (Lidar) solutions. It has shipped over 103,000 Lidar units from 2017 to the end of 2022.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



Hesai Group (HSAI US) is looking to raise around US$170m in its upcoming US IPO.
HSAI is a manufacturer of three-dimensional light detection and ranging (Lidar) solutions. It has shipped over 103,000 Lidar units from 2017 to the end of 2022.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about valuations.


China

NIO Inc. manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services. NIO serves customers worldwide.

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NIO (NIO US)

[NIO (NIO US, BUY, TP US$13) Target Price Change]: Late Delivery of Key Models Hurts 1H23 Momentum

We expect NIO to report 4Q22 top line of RMB 16.7bn and GPM of 13.2%, missing consensus by (4%)/(0.8ppt), primarily due to COVID-related...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

REPT BATTERO Energy Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Is Only Now Aiming for Sustainable Profits

REPT BATTERO Energy (REPT HK) is looking to raise US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of...

Sumeet Singh

Hesai Group IPO Trading - Managed to Break the Drought

Hesai Group (HSAI US) raised around US$190m in its US IPO. We have looked at the company's performance in our previous note, in this note we will...

Sumeet Singh

Nissan’s Renault Led Selldown Very Early Look - US$4.3bn Prolonged Overhang or Lack Thereof

With Nissan (7201 JP) and Renault (RNO FP) coming to a new arrangement regarding their working relationship, Renault will be left with a US$4.3bn...

Sumeet Singh

Hesai Group IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

Hesai Group (HSAI US) is looking to raise around US$170m in its upcoming US IPO. In this note, we till talk about valuations.

Sumeet Singh

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