Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had been near-term bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) since our 4/22/25 Compass, however, we are officially downgrading our near-term outlook to neutral</li>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are breaking below their 50-day MAs and are also violating their multi-month uptrends, signaling a consolidation period is here</li>
<li>Still, our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish (as of 5/14/25 report), and we'll maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6200</li>
</ul>


We had been near-term bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) since our 4/22/25 Compass, however, we are officially downgrading our near-term outlook to neutral
The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are breaking below their 50-day MAs and are also violating their multi-month uptrends, signaling a consolidation period is here
Still, our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish (as of 5/14/25 report), and we'll maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6200


Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Discretionary to Underweight

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Biotech fared better than pharma, as macro trends mostly favored growth stocks and LLY weakness pressured the large cap group.</li><li>M&amp;A activity also helped biotech, with NVS acquiring RLGS at a 108% premium and MKKGY buying SWTX after months of speculation.</li><li>Sentiment remained cautious among industry leaders, with another potential sign of regulatory disruption as the FDA missed Stealth’s (private) PDUFA date.</li></ul>

Biotech fared better than pharma, as macro trends mostly favored growth stocks and LLY weakness pressured the large cap group.M&amp;A activity also helped biotech, with NVS acquiring RLGS at a 108% premium and MKKGY buying SWTX after months of speculation.Sentiment remained cautious among industry leaders, with another potential sign of regulatory disruption as the FDA missed Stealth’s (private) PDUFA date.

Biopharma Week in Review - Macro and M&A Boost Biotech; NVO Moves to Slow LLY Obesity Lead

<ul><li>The forced resignation of the FDA’s CBER Director Peter Marks shook the biopharma market, as he called out RFK Jr.’s goal of confirming vaccine “misinformation and lies.”</li><li>President Donald Trump’s broad reciprocal tariffs weakened biopharma further, as the exemption for pharmaceuticals was unclear and eventual tariffs on drug products are now largely expected.</li><li>The FDA uncertainty and stagflation fears remain an overhang on the industry. </li></ul>

The forced resignation of the FDA’s CBER Director Peter Marks shook the biopharma market, as he called out RFK Jr.’s goal of confirming vaccine “misinformation and lies.”President Donald Trump’s broad reciprocal tariffs weakened biopharma further, as the exemption for pharmaceuticals was unclear and eventual tariffs on drug products are now largely expected.The FDA uncertainty and stagflation fears remain an overhang on the industry. 

Biopharma Week in Review - Concerning FDA Resignation; Tariffs Trigger Deeper Selloff

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains bullish as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5770-5850 and 5600-5670 (worst case), and we are buyers at these levels.</li>
<li>With that said, we see potential for near-term downside based on several developments discussed below.  It likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation</li>
<li>If SPX remains below 6100 and 6150 resistances, do not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains bullish as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5770-5850 and 5600-5670 (worst case), and we are buyers at these levels.
With that said, we see potential for near-term downside based on several developments discussed below.  It likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation
If SPX remains below 6100 and 6150 resistances, do not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670


Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Rubicon Research Limited / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rubicon-research-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43796:1" rel="noopener">Rubicon Research Limited (1453591D IN)</a> is looking to raise about US$130m in its India IPO.</li>
<li>It is a pharmaceutical formulations company with an increasing portfolio of specialty products and drug-device combination products targeting regulated markets, particularly, the United States.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.</li>
</ul>



Rubicon Research Limited (1453591D IN) is looking to raise about US$130m in its India IPO.
It is a pharmaceutical formulations company with an increasing portfolio of specialty products and drug-device combination products targeting regulated markets, particularly, the United States.
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.


Rubicon Research Pre-IPO - Robust Product Development Pipeline Driving Revenue Growth

United States

Novartis AG manufactures pharmaceutical and consumer healthcare products. The Company produces pharmaceuticals for cardiovascular, respiratory and infectious diseases; oncology, neuroscience, transplantation, dermatology, gastrointestinal and urinary conditions, and arthritis; vaccines and diagnostics; vision, and animal health products.

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Novartis Ag Sponsored Adr (NVS US)

Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Discretionary to Underweight

Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Near-Term Outlook to Neutral, But Still Bullish Intermediate-Term $SPX $QQQ; Downgrading...

Vermilion Research

Biopharma Week in Review - Macro and M&A Boost Biotech; NVO Moves to Slow LLY Obesity Lead

Biotech fared better than pharma, as macro trends mostly favored growth stocks and LLY weakness pressured the large cap group.

Water Tower Research

Biopharma Week in Review - Concerning FDA Resignation; Tariffs Trigger Deeper Selloff

he forced resignation of the FDA’s CBER Director Peter Marks shook the biopharma market, as he called out RFK Jr.’s goal of confirming vaccine...

Water Tower Research

Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts; Targeting 5770-5850; Long-Term Still Bullish

Near-Term Downside Likely After False Breakouts $SPX $QQQ; Long-Term Still Bullish; Major Tops on $DXY, 10-Year Treasury Yield. If < 6100 and 6150...

Vermilion Research

Rubicon Research Pre-IPO - Robust Product Development Pipeline Driving Revenue Growth

Rubicon Research Limited is looking to raise about US$130m in its India IPO. In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

Akshat Shah

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