HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Based on 25Q2 sales data of Semaglutide and Tirzepatide, the penetration rate of both T2D and weight loss indications is approaching ceiling. The inflection point of GLP-1 market has arrived.</li>
<li>When the gap of clinical progress in EU/US markets is too large, these drugs may not even be on the same tier, and thus do not constitute substantive competition.</li>
<li>Novartis has approached Avidity Biosciences with an acquisition offer. We think price range of $9-11B is justified by 3-5x peak sales multiples and strategic urgency.</li>
</ul>


Based on 25Q2 sales data of Semaglutide and Tirzepatide, the penetration rate of both T2D and weight loss indications is approaching ceiling. The inflection point of GLP-1 market has arrived.
When the gap of clinical progress in EU/US markets is too large, these drugs may not even be on the same tier, and thus do not constitute substantive competition.
Novartis has approached Avidity Biosciences with an acquisition offer. We think price range of $9-11B is justified by 3-5x peak sales multiples and strategic urgency.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.17) - GLP-1s Inflection Point, Novartis to Acquire Avidity Biosciences

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Rubicon Research Limited / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rubicon-research-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43796:1" rel="noopener">Rubicon Research Limited (1453591D IN)</a> is looking to raise about US$130m in its India IPO.</li>
<li>It is a pharmaceutical formulations company with an increasing portfolio of specialty products and drug-device combination products targeting regulated markets, particularly, the United States.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.</li>
</ul>



Rubicon Research Limited (1453591D IN) is looking to raise about US$130m in its India IPO.
It is a pharmaceutical formulations company with an increasing portfolio of specialty products and drug-device combination products targeting regulated markets, particularly, the United States.
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.


Rubicon Research Pre-IPO - Robust Product Development Pipeline Driving Revenue Growth

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.</li>
<li>It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).</li>
</ul>


Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).
Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.
It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).


Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

<ul>
<li>We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.</li>
<li>Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)</li>
</ul>


We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.
Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)


Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.</li>
<li>A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.</li>
<li>With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is <em>above</em> $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.
A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.
With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is above $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.


Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Switzerland

Novartis AG manufactures pharmaceutical and consumer healthcare products. The Company uses innovative science and digital technologies to create transformative treatments in areas of great medical need. Novartis offers patent protected prescription medicine and generic pharmaceuticals and biosimilars.

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Novartis (NOVN SE)

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.17) - GLP-1s Inflection Point, Novartis to Acquire Avidity Biosciences

Semaglutide/Tirzepatide sales data show GLP-1 market reaching inflection point. Novartis approached Avidity with an acquisition offer. Price range...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Rubicon Research Pre-IPO - Robust Product Development Pipeline Driving Revenue Growth

Rubicon Research Limited is looking to raise about US$130m in its India IPO. In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

Akshat Shah

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pause/pullback underway in $ACWI, but as long as the $DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and $ACWI is above...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.17) - GLP-1s Inflection Point, Novartis to Acquire Avidity Biosciences

​Semaglutide/Tirzepatide sales data show GLP-1 market reaching inflection point. Novartis approached Avidity with an acquisition offer. Price range...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Rubicon Research Pre-IPO - Robust Product Development Pipeline Driving Revenue Growth

Rubicon Research Limited is looking to raise about US$130m in its India IPO. In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

Akshat Shah

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pause/pullback underway in $ACWI, but as long as the $DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and $ACWI is above...

Vermilion Research

Semaglutide/Tirzepatide sales data show GLP-1 market reaching inflection point. Novartis approached Avidity with an acquisition offer. Price range...