Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Himax Technologies Inc Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
China’s push for 100% auto chip localization by 2027 poses risk to Himax, which derived 75% of 1Q25 revenue from China. We engaged the company for comments./</li>
<li>
Himax may avoid direct targeting due to Taiwanese roots and local production via CN Nexchip, and we believe is less vulnerable than Western firms like NXP, TI, and Wolfspeed.</li>
<li>
Copackaged Optics (CPO) industry momentum continues to build as Himax continues role alongside TSMC and FOCI; industry moves from Nvidia, AMD validate long-term optical interconnect opportunity Himax is positioned for.</li>
</ul>



China’s push for 100% auto chip localization by 2027 poses risk to Himax, which derived 75% of 1Q25 revenue from China. We engaged the company for comments./

Himax may avoid direct targeting due to Taiwanese roots and local production via CN Nexchip, and we believe is less vulnerable than Western firms like NXP, TI, and Wolfspeed.

Copackaged Optics (CPO) industry momentum continues to build as Himax continues role alongside TSMC and FOCI; industry moves from Nvidia, AMD validate long-term optical interconnect opportunity Himax is positioned for.


TechChain Insights: Himax Threatened by China Auto Chip Push? CPO Tech with TSMC Remains Bright Spot

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Marvell AI event yesterday, good efforts to explain its Data Center / Accelerators roadmap, growth opportunity: ~50% Cagr to 2028, a bit higher than TSMC (45%), lower than AMD (60%). </li>
<li>CEO suggests that data center revenues can increase 4.4x to 2028, total revenue to ~triple to CY28. That’s possible but Marvell’s fragility is margins and lower scalability than AMD, Nvidia.  </li>
<li>The nature of custom-designed ASICs is a lot of R&amp;D for a single customer. Marvell GAAP margins are thin and therefore a binary bet on operating leverage.</li>
</ul>


Marvell AI event yesterday, good efforts to explain its Data Center / Accelerators roadmap, growth opportunity: ~50% Cagr to 2028, a bit higher than TSMC (45%), lower than AMD (60%). 
CEO suggests that data center revenues can increase 4.4x to 2028, total revenue to ~triple to CY28. That’s possible but Marvell’s fragility is margins and lower scalability than AMD, Nvidia.  
The nature of custom-designed ASICs is a lot of R&amp;D for a single customer. Marvell GAAP margins are thin and therefore a binary bet on operating leverage.


Marvell Expects Hyper-Growth in Data Center Custom Chips (ASIC) With a Higher Earnings Risk

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC’s Next Generation 2nm Node Gathers Momentum as Intel Lags Behind</li>
<li>TSMC’s Arizona Plant Ships First AI Chips — But Taiwan Remains Core to Packaging</li>
<li>MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026. </li>
</ul>


TSMC’s Next Generation 2nm Node Gathers Momentum as Intel Lags Behind
TSMC’s Arizona Plant Ships First AI Chips — But Taiwan Remains Core to Packaging
MediaTek (2454.TT): Chinese Stimulus Program Might Lose Actively; Google DPU Project Delay to 2026. 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's 2nm Node to Generate Largest Revenue Ever; US Bottleneck in Adv Packaging

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 5700-5785 (up from 5500).</li>
<li>We continue to be buyers in the 5700-5785 range, and we would also be buyers at 5804-5854 gap support. We are expecting all-time highs soon on SPX.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 5700-5785 (up from 5500).
We continue to be buyers in the 5700-5785 range, and we would also be buyers at 5804-5854 gap support. We are expecting all-time highs soon on SPX.


Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish

<ul>
<li>2025 GPU (Blackwell for Nvidia, MI350 for AMD) use HBM3e 12Hi. SK Hynix and Micron supply Nvidia, Samsung has failed qualification again. Micron and Samsung supply AMD.  </li>
<li>2026 GPU (Rubin, MI400) use HBM4 12Hi. SK Hynix, Micron are qualified by Nvidia – that’s done. Micron is closing the gap with Hynix. Samsung still nowhere to be seen.</li>
<li>Samsung got its consolation prize: AMD is using its HBM3e 12Hi in MI350. It looks like Broadcom will use Samsung’s HBM3e 8Hi in 2 projects (speculatively Apple and OpenAI).</li>
</ul>


2025 GPU (Blackwell for Nvidia, MI350 for AMD) use HBM3e 12Hi. SK Hynix and Micron supply Nvidia, Samsung has failed qualification again. Micron and Samsung supply AMD.  
2026 GPU (Rubin, MI400) use HBM4 12Hi. SK Hynix, Micron are qualified by Nvidia – that’s done. Micron is closing the gap with Hynix. Samsung still nowhere to be seen.
Samsung got its consolation prize: AMD is using its HBM3e 12Hi in MI350. It looks like Broadcom will use Samsung’s HBM3e 8Hi in 2 projects (speculatively Apple and OpenAI).


SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

TechChain Insights: Himax Threatened by China Auto Chip Push? CPO Tech with TSMC Remains Bright Spot

China's push for auto chip localization poses some risk to Himax, but its local production may offer some protection. Himax's role in Copackaged...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Marvell Expects Hyper-Growth in Data Center Custom Chips (ASIC) With a Higher Earnings Risk

Marvell's AI event highlights Data Center/Accelerators roadmap with potential 50% CAGR to 2028, but faces challenges in margins and scalability...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's 2nm Node to Generate Largest Revenue Ever; US Bottleneck in Adv Packaging

TSMC's advancements in 2nm node technology outpace Intel, while Arizona plant ships AI chips and Taiwan remains central to packaging. MediaTek...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish

Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish and Risk-On. $SMH $SOXX $TSM $NVDA $ARM $MU $KLAC $LRCX...

Vermilion Research

SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia

Upcoming GPUs from Nvidia and AMD will utilize HBM4 memory technology, with Micron and SK Hynix leading the supply chain while Samsung lags behind.

Nicolas Baratte

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TechChain Insights: Himax Threatened by China Auto Chip Push? CPO Tech with TSMC Remains Bright Spot

​China's push for auto chip localization poses some risk to Himax, but its local production may offer some protection. Himax's role in Copackaged...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Marvell Expects Hyper-Growth in Data Center Custom Chips (ASIC) With a Higher Earnings Risk

​Marvell's AI event highlights Data Center/Accelerators roadmap with potential 50% CAGR to 2028, but faces challenges in margins and scalability...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's 2nm Node to Generate Largest Revenue Ever; US Bottleneck in Adv Packaging

​TSMC's advancements in 2nm node technology outpace Intel, while Arizona plant ships AI chips and Taiwan remains central to packaging. MediaTek...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish

Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish and Risk-On. $SMH $SOXX $TSM $NVDA $ARM $MU $KLAC $LRCX...

Vermilion Research

SK Hynix, Micron HBM4 Qualification by Nvidia Is Done. Samsung Still Failing to Qualify with Nvidia

​Upcoming GPUs from Nvidia and AMD will utilize HBM4 memory technology, with Micron and SK Hynix leading the supply chain while Samsung lags behind.

Nicolas Baratte

China's push for auto chip localization poses some risk to Himax, but its local production may offer some protection. Himax's role in Copackaged...

Marvell's AI event highlights Data Center/Accelerators roadmap with potential 50% CAGR to 2028, but faces challenges in margins and scalability...

TSMC's advancements in 2nm node technology outpace Intel, while Arizona plant ships AI chips and Taiwan remains central to packaging. MediaTek...

Upcoming GPUs from Nvidia and AMD will utilize HBM4 memory technology, with Micron and SK Hynix leading the supply chain while Samsung lags behind.