Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Headline CPI inflation stayed near 3.6%YoY for the second consecutive month in Aug'24, and core inflation remained benign at 3.4%YoY. A 25bp rate cut remains certain at the Oct'24 MPC.</li>
<li>Although Sep-Oct'24 inflation is likely to average 5%YoY (because of base effects), the strong monsoon should deliver a bountiful kharif harvest, bringing headline inflation back down to 4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25. </li>
<li>We expect the policy rate to decline by 25bp at each of the next four MPC meetings, to 5.5% by Apr'25. Rate sensitive sectors like banks, property, auto-companies will benefit. </li>
</ul>


Headline CPI inflation stayed near 3.6%YoY for the second consecutive month in Aug'24, and core inflation remained benign at 3.4%YoY. A 25bp rate cut remains certain at the Oct'24 MPC.
Although Sep-Oct'24 inflation is likely to average 5%YoY (because of base effects), the strong monsoon should deliver a bountiful kharif harvest, bringing headline inflation back down to 4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25. 
We expect the policy rate to decline by 25bp at each of the next four MPC meetings, to 5.5% by Apr'25. Rate sensitive sectors like banks, property, auto-companies will benefit. 


India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

<ul>
<li>CPI inflation receded to a 59-month low of 3.5%YoY in Jul'24, with food inflation abating to 5.1%YoY (from 8.4%YoY in Jun'24), as vegetable inflation fell to 6.8%YoY (from Jun'24's 29.3%YoY).</li>
<li>Whilst retaining its 6.5% policy rate on 8/8/24, RBI forecast 4.4%YoY inflation in Jul-Sep'24, and 4.7%YoY in Oct-Dec'24; we expect 4.2%YoY and 4.3%YoY respectively, amid 8-10% above-normal monsoon rainfall.</li>
<li>The policy repo rate will likely decline 50bp by Dec'24 and a further 50bp to 5.5% by Jun'25. Rate sensitives like banks, auto-companies, NBFCs and property stocks will benefit. </li>
</ul>


CPI inflation receded to a 59-month low of 3.5%YoY in Jul'24, with food inflation abating to 5.1%YoY (from 8.4%YoY in Jun'24), as vegetable inflation fell to 6.8%YoY (from Jun'24's 29.3%YoY).
Whilst retaining its 6.5% policy rate on 8/8/24, RBI forecast 4.4%YoY inflation in Jul-Sep'24, and 4.7%YoY in Oct-Dec'24; we expect 4.2%YoY and 4.3%YoY respectively, amid 8-10% above-normal monsoon rainfall.
The policy repo rate will likely decline 50bp by Dec'24 and a further 50bp to 5.5% by Jun'25. Rate sensitives like banks, auto-companies, NBFCs and property stocks will benefit. 


India: Relief on Food Inflation Makes an Oct'24 Rate Cut Near-Certain

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Oberoi Realty: Oberoi Realty (ORL) registered presales of INR 10.6bn (+124%/-40% YoY/QoQ), it was largely backed by sales from 360 West contributing &gt;40% of presales followed by Elysian and Sky City</li><li>360W saw a good amount of traction in Q1FY25 as six units were sold (vs 3units in the previous quarter totaling INR 4.8bn marking a 118% QoQ growth), we believe that ORL is likely to be able to sell its inventory over the next 24-30 months</li><li>The Pokhran project is set to launch in Q3FY25 during the festive season, with approvals and a ready-show apartment in place</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Oberoi Realty: Oberoi Realty (ORL) registered presales of INR 10.6bn (+124%/-40% YoY/QoQ), it was largely backed by sales from 360 West contributing &gt;40% of presales followed by Elysian and Sky City360W saw a good amount of traction in Q1FY25 as six units were sold (vs 3units in the previous quarter totaling INR 4.8bn marking a 118% QoQ growth), we believe that ORL is likely to be able to sell its inventory over the next 24-30 monthsThe Pokhran project is set to launch in Q3FY25 during the festive season, with approvals and a ready-show apartment in placeContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Oberoi Realty, JK Cement, Can Fin Homes, Route Mobile

<ul><li>1QFY25 residential absorption remains resilient, pace of launch muted: Our channel checks suggest resilient demand undercurrent for some of the recent launches with GPL reporting robust response to Bengaluru (INR 31bn) and Noida (INR 20bn), DLF Gurgaon (INR 56bn), Signature Global in Gurgaon projects (INR 31.2bn)</li><li>Other developers like Macrotech reported 20% YoY growth to INR 40.3bn</li><li>Prestige Estate reported 22% presales de-growth in the absence of any major new launch</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

1QFY25 residential absorption remains resilient, pace of launch muted: Our channel checks suggest resilient demand undercurrent for some of the recent launches with GPL reporting robust response to Bengaluru (INR 31bn) and Noida (INR 20bn), DLF Gurgaon (INR 56bn), Signature Global in Gurgaon projects (INR 31.2bn)Other developers like Macrotech reported 20% YoY growth to INR 40.3bnPrestige Estate reported 22% presales de-growth in the absence of any major new launchContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Real Estate (Q1FY25 Results Preview): Mixed Quarter

<ul><li>Shree Cement: We maintain our ADD rating on Shree Cement, with an unchanged SOTP target price of INR 28,700/share</li><li>Cement volume growth slowed to 8% YoY as it lost four days of sales due to software migration to SAP</li><li>Reported unit EBITDA (cement) remained flattish QoQ at INR 1346/MT as lower input costs and lower advertising expenses offset the impact of a 6% QoQ NSR decline (ex-power)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Shree Cement: We maintain our ADD rating on Shree Cement, with an unchanged SOTP target price of INR 28,700/shareCement volume growth slowed to 8% YoY as it lost four days of sales due to software migration to SAPReported unit EBITDA (cement) remained flattish QoQ at INR 1346/MT as lower input costs and lower advertising expenses offset the impact of a 6% QoQ NSR decline (ex-power)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Shree Cement, Oberoi Realty, Apollo Tyres, Radico Khaitan, NCC

India

Oberoi Realty LTD., is a real estate development company operating in Mumbai, focused on premium developments. The Company's main focus is residential projects but they also have a diversified portfolio of projects covering segments of the real estate market, which target the upper end of the respective income or market segment.

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Oberoi Realty (OBER IN)

India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Relief on Food Inflation Makes an Oct'24 Rate Cut Near-Certain

CPI inflation at 59-month low 3.5%YoY in Jul'24. We expect CPI inflation to average 4.2%YoY in Jul-Dec'24, less in H1CY25, hence expect policy...

Prasenjit K. Basu

HSIE Results Daily: Oberoi Realty, JK Cement, Can Fin Homes, Route Mobile

Given the expected robust cash flows from ready-to-move-in inventory in 360W and new launches expected in FY25 along with new BD, we remain...

HDFC Securities

Real Estate (Q1FY25 Results Preview): Mixed Quarter

Other developers like Macrotech reported 20% YoY growth to INR 40.3bn. Prestige Estate reported 22% presales de-growth in the absence of any major...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Shree Cement, Oberoi Realty, Apollo Tyres, Radico Khaitan, NCC

Reported unit EBITDA (cement) remained flattish QoQ at INR 1346/MT as lower input costs and lower advertising expenses offset the impact of a 6%...

HDFC Securities

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India: CPI Inflation Below Target for 2nd Month Signals Rapid Rate Cuts Ahead

​With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: Relief on Food Inflation Makes an Oct'24 Rate Cut Near-Certain

​CPI inflation at 59-month low 3.5%YoY in Jul'24. We expect CPI inflation to average 4.2%YoY in Jul-Dec'24, less in H1CY25, hence expect policy...

Prasenjit K. Basu

HSIE Results Daily: Oberoi Realty, JK Cement, Can Fin Homes, Route Mobile

Given the expected robust cash flows from ready-to-move-in inventory in 360W and new launches expected in FY25 along with new BD, we remain...

HDFC Securities

Real Estate (Q1FY25 Results Preview): Mixed Quarter

Other developers like Macrotech reported 20% YoY growth to INR 40.3bn. Prestige Estate reported 22% presales de-growth in the absence of any major...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Shree Cement, Oberoi Realty, Apollo Tyres, Radico Khaitan, NCC

Reported unit EBITDA (cement) remained flattish QoQ at INR 1346/MT as lower input costs and lower advertising expenses offset the impact of a 6%...

HDFC Securities

With headline and core inflation at 3.6% and 3.4%YoY respectively, a rate cut is certain in Oct'24. Bountiful harvest to keep inflation benign,...

CPI inflation at 59-month low 3.5%YoY in Jul'24. We expect CPI inflation to average 4.2%YoY in Jul-Dec'24, less in H1CY25, hence expect policy...