Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will maintain our bullish outlook as long as...</li>
<li>...market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 6028-6059. Short-term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, the 3-month uptrend (currently at ~6380), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059</li>
<li>Bullish Developments Continue: DJI and Russell 2000 Breakouts and Much More</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will maintain our bullish outlook as long as...
...market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 6028-6059. Short-term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, the 3-month uptrend (currently at ~6380), 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059
Bullish Developments Continue: DJI and Russell 2000 Breakouts and Much More


DJI and Russell 2000 Breaking Out; Staying Bullish; Bullish Developments Continue

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Cyan Renewables has bumped its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mma-offshore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:594:1" rel="noopener">Mma Offshore (MRM AU)</a> offer to A$2.70 per share, a 3.8% premium to the previous A$2.60 offer.</li>
<li>The bump is derisory in the context of recent earnings upgrades. Since the binding proposal, MMA has upgraded its FY24 EBITDA and EBIT guidance by 9.8% and 15.5%, respectively.</li>
<li>The AFR reported that around 30% of the register opposed the previous offer. A cursory 3.8% bump is unlikely to sway most of these dissenters to change their views.</li>
</ul>


Cyan Renewables has bumped its Mma Offshore (MRM AU) offer to A$2.70 per share, a 3.8% premium to the previous A$2.60 offer.
The bump is derisory in the context of recent earnings upgrades. Since the binding proposal, MMA has upgraded its FY24 EBITDA and EBIT guidance by 9.8% and 15.5%, respectively.
The AFR reported that around 30% of the register opposed the previous offer. A cursory 3.8% bump is unlikely to sway most of these dissenters to change their views.


MMA Offshore (MRM AU): Disappointing Final Offer Poses a Vote Risk

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes, which has been our stance since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder.</li>
<li>Beginning with our 7/18/23 Compass, we discussed our expectation for major 1+ year breakouts on the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 (RSP), Dow, and Russell 2000 (IWM). </li>
<li>The breakouts happened later that day on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invesco-s-p-500-equal-weight-e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32932:1" rel="noopener">RSP</a> and Dow (above $153 and 34,280, respectively), and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-russell-2000-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32964:1" rel="noopener">IWM</a> is now on the cusp of breaking out above $199.</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes, which has been our stance since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder.
Beginning with our 7/18/23 Compass, we discussed our expectation for major 1+ year breakouts on the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 (RSP), Dow, and Russell 2000 (IWM). 
The breakouts happened later that day on the RSP and Dow (above $153 and 34,280, respectively), and the IWM is now on the cusp of breaking out above $199.


Expecting Russell 2000 (IWM) Breakout Above $199; Highlighting Buys in Energy

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500, but cannot rule out a trip to 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs)</li>
<li>Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.</li>
</ul>


We continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500, but cannot rule out a trip to 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs)
Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes.
Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.


Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

<ul>
<li>Our Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P 500 targets for this rally have been the 200-day MAs, coinciding with YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>The Russell already hit this target while the S&amp;P is closing in, less than 1% away.</li>
<li>Still, the vast majority of signals point to further upside ahead for the market indexes, and a possible end to the bear market.</li>
</ul>


Our Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P 500 targets for this rally have been the 200-day MAs, coinciding with YTD downtrends.
The Russell already hit this target while the S&amp;P is closing in, less than 1% away.
Still, the vast majority of signals point to further upside ahead for the market indexes, and a possible end to the bear market.


Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary

United States

Oceaneering International, Inc. is a global provider of engineered services and products to the offshore oil and gas industry. The Company offers services and products in remotely operated vehicles, mobile offshore production systems, engineering and product management, manned diving and other deep water applications. Oceaneering also serves the defense and aerospace industries.

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Oceaneering Intl (OII US)

DJI and Russell 2000 Breaking Out; Staying Bullish; Bullish Developments Continue

$DJI and Russell 2000 $IWM Breaking Out; Staying Bullish $SPX $QQQ; Bullish Developments Continue: DJI, IWM, $RSP Breakouts, RS on $XLP at new...

Vermilion Research

MMA Offshore (MRM AU): Disappointing Final Offer Poses a Vote Risk

The bump is derisory in the context of recent earnings upgrades. It is unlikely that a cursory 3.8% bump will sway most of the NO vote to change...

Arun George

Expecting Russell 2000 (IWM) Breakout Above $199; Highlighting Buys in Energy

Expecting Russell 2000 $IWM Breakout Above $199; Many Reasons to be Bullish; $DXY and Treasury Yields $TNX $TYX Remain Below Resistance;...

Vermilion Research

Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

We continue to expect 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&P 500, but a trip to 4300-4325 is possible. We continue to preach caution. Treasury yields...

Vermilion Research

Rally Continues Following Breaks in USD & 10-Yr Yield; Buy Ideas in Energy & Consumer Discretionary

Our $IWM target (its 200-day MA) has been hit and our $SPX target is less than 1% away. Still, the rally is poised to continue following breaks in...

Vermilion Research

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