Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Hokkoku Financial Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japanese banks have been in a relative sweetspot for a couple of years. Higher rates, higher inflation, more FX volatility, better earnings, stronger buybacks. Cross-holding sales up but not spectacular.</li>
<li>The BOJ may raise rates but Trump Tariff retaliation/mitigation is a question. Elections the next two weeks and earnings the 2-3 weeks after that may keep things a question. </li>
<li>But buybacks should pick up. Lots announced in spring end at or before Q1 earnings. And I expect substantial new buybacks to be announced throughout the from Q1 results on.</li>
</ul>


Japanese banks have been in a relative sweetspot for a couple of years. Higher rates, higher inflation, more FX volatility, better earnings, stronger buybacks. Cross-holding sales up but not spectacular.
The BOJ may raise rates but Trump Tariff retaliation/mitigation is a question. Elections the next two weeks and earnings the 2-3 weeks after that may keep things a question. 
But buybacks should pick up. Lots announced in spring end at or before Q1 earnings. And I expect substantial new buybacks to be announced throughout the from Q1 results on.


[Japan Buybacks] - Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1

<ul>
<li>About 10 days ago I put out a piece saying H1 guidance trends were such that a lot more banks would upgrade guidance before results. </li>
<li>More than two dozen did and the average guidance uplift is VERY high at +59%. The median uplift vs guidance for 35 banks guiding/reporting is +39% for H1. </li>
<li>The big wave of bank earnings is today through late next week. Megas at the end. Stay long banks. Megas. Cheap regionals. </li>
</ul>


About 10 days ago I put out a piece saying H1 guidance trends were such that a lot more banks would upgrade guidance before results. 
More than two dozen did and the average guidance uplift is VERY high at +59%. The median uplift vs guidance for 35 banks guiding/reporting is +39% for H1. 
The big wave of bank earnings is today through late next week. Megas at the end. Stay long banks. Megas. Cheap regionals. 


Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Better and Better

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 18th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,250m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Lasertec, Fujikura, Advantest, Sanrio, Ihi, Fast Retailing, Softbank, Seven &amp; I, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 18th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,250m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Lasertec, Fujikura, Advantest, Sanrio, Ihi, Fast Retailing, Softbank, Seven &amp; I, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 18th): Lasertec, Fujikura, Advantest, Sanrio, Ihi, Fast Retailing

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ insights published in the past two weeks on Smartkarma</li>
<li>In this cut, we compare Japanese insurers versus banks, look at the Chinese EV sector and explore how tariff hikes benefit Asian port operators</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ insights published in the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we compare Japanese insurers versus banks, look at the Chinese EV sector and explore how tariff hikes benefit Asian port operators
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next


Curator's Cut: Japan Insurers Vs Banks, the State of the Chinese EV Sector & Asian Ports in Focus

<ul>
<li>So far, 10 regional banks have upgraded guidance since Q1 results. One of them (Iyogin) twice. The average gain is +71.7% vs original H1 guidance (if we count Iyogin once).</li>
<li>This week will be the big push for new guidance ahead of a flood earnings reports the following week. Election results will cause concern, and the BOJ meets Thursday.</li>
<li>I expect a move in December (positive for banks), but it may be US Fed and $/¥-dependent. In the meantime banks enjoy tailwinds.</li>
</ul>


So far, 10 regional banks have upgraded guidance since Q1 results. One of them (Iyogin) twice. The average gain is +71.7% vs original H1 guidance (if we count Iyogin once).
This week will be the big push for new guidance ahead of a flood earnings reports the following week. Election results will cause concern, and the BOJ meets Thursday.
I expect a move in December (positive for banks), but it may be US Fed and $/¥-dependent. In the meantime banks enjoy tailwinds.


Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance: Interest/Fees ⬆︎, Expenses/Credit Costs⬇︎ - Opportunity Good Still

Japan

The Oita Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Oita prefecture.  The Bank provides general banking services including deposits, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments.  The Oita Bank also provides leasing, credit cards, and letter of credit, systems development, and real estate management services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Oita Bank (8392 JP)

[Japan Buybacks] - Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1

This is the first of several episodes regarding Japanese Banks. I want to make the size palatable and offer base data and framework with which to...

Travis Lundy

Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Better and Better

This AM has a Nikkei headline saying Japan's 3 megabanks will report ¥2.0trln in Net Profit in H1. That compares to ¥894bn last year, and ¥3.3trln...

Travis Lundy

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 18th): Lasertec, Fujikura, Advantest, Sanrio, Ihi, Fast Retailing

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Lasertec (6920 JP), Fujikura (5803 JP), Advantest (6857 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Curator's Cut: Japan Insurers Vs Banks, the State of the Chinese EV Sector & Asian Ports in Focus

This Curator's Cut issue compares Japanese insurers vs banks amidst rising yields, the state of the Chinese EV sector and how Asian port operators...

Pranav Rao

Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance: Interest/Fees ⬆︎, Expenses/Credit Costs⬇︎ - Opportunity Good Still

10 of about 70 Japanese regional banks have revised guidance for the H1 to end-Sep 2024. The average gain is near 70% vs previous guidance. That's...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Japan Buybacks] - Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1

This is the first of several episodes regarding Japanese Banks. I want to make the size palatable and offer base data and framework with which to...

Travis Lundy

Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Better and Better

This AM has a Nikkei headline saying Japan's 3 megabanks will report ¥2.0trln in Net Profit in H1. That compares to ¥894bn last year, and ¥3.3trln...

Travis Lundy

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 18th): Lasertec, Fujikura, Advantest, Sanrio, Ihi, Fast Retailing

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Lasertec (6920 JP), Fujikura (5803 JP), Advantest (6857 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Curator's Cut: Japan Insurers Vs Banks, the State of the Chinese EV Sector & Asian Ports in Focus

​This Curator's Cut issue compares Japanese insurers vs banks amidst rising yields, the state of the Chinese EV sector and how Asian port operators...

Pranav Rao

Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance: Interest/Fees ⬆︎, Expenses/Credit Costs⬇︎ - Opportunity Good Still

10 of about 70 Japanese regional banks have revised guidance for the H1 to end-Sep 2024. The average gain is near 70% vs previous guidance. That's...

Travis Lundy

This Curator's Cut issue compares Japanese insurers vs banks amidst rising yields, the state of the Chinese EV sector and how Asian port operators...