Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Paper manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oji-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11348:1" rel="noopener">Oji Holdings (3861 JP)</a> has spent 25 years not going anywhere. Their current MTMP isn't exciting. And it looks like they will fail worse than last time.</li>
<li>But an activist put their head above the parapet recently, and now the company has announced larger new cross-holding selldown targets, and a big 9% buyback, with a ToSTNeT-3 tomorrow. </li>
<li>The stock is at 0.47x book. They have nearly ¥400bn of financial assets which are non-core. They have land and property holdings. And they have lots of cross-holdings to repurchase.</li>
</ul>


Paper manufacturer Oji Holdings (3861 JP) has spent 25 years not going anywhere. Their current MTMP isn't exciting. And it looks like they will fail worse than last time.
But an activist put their head above the parapet recently, and now the company has announced larger new cross-holding selldown targets, and a big 9% buyback, with a ToSTNeT-3 tomorrow. 
The stock is at 0.47x book. They have nearly ¥400bn of financial assets which are non-core. They have land and property holdings. And they have lots of cross-holdings to repurchase.


Oji Paper (3861 JP) - Big New Buyback After Crossholding Sales And An Activist Peeking From Register

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.
Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.


Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Oasis have turned up on the register of Topcon with a 7.3% stake. Topcon are exploring way to enhance corporate value...ie a bidding war for private equity sale</li>
<li>City Index have taken a significant stake in Furukawa Machinery - the company will be under pressure to allocate capital more effectively</li>
<li>City Index have also gone large in Oji Holdings. The company is already doing sensible things to improve its valuation, but there is more to be done. </li>
</ul>


Oasis have turned up on the register of Topcon with a 7.3% stake. Topcon are exploring way to enhance corporate value...ie a bidding war for private equity sale
City Index have taken a significant stake in Furukawa Machinery - the company will be under pressure to allocate capital more effectively
City Index have also gone large in Oji Holdings. The company is already doing sensible things to improve its valuation, but there is more to be done. 


David Blennerhassett

Nec Networks & System Integr / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks (1973 JP)</a>'s own FA didn't include any measure of transaction synergies to be created about which NEC and NESIC were so sure. This is not being done right.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-post-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:150:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Post (SPOST SP)</a>'s muted price action after announcing the ~S$900mn FMH sale is illustrative. But expect more value to be unlocked from divesting non-core ops going forward. </li>
<li>The FTC' blocking the giant grocery merger of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kroger-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20824:1" rel="noopener">Kroger Co (KR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albertsons-cos-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33026:1" rel="noopener">Albertsons Cos (ACI US)</a> spells trouble for ACT and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Nec Networks (1973 JP)'s own FA didn't include any measure of transaction synergies to be created about which NEC and NESIC were so sure. This is not being done right.

Singapore Post (SPOST SP)'s muted price action after announcing the ~S$900mn FMH sale is illustrative. But expect more value to be unlocked from divesting non-core ops going forward. 
The FTC' blocking the giant grocery merger of Kroger Co (KR US) and Albertsons Cos (ACI US) spells trouble for ACT and Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP).


Last Week in Event SPACE: NEC Network, SingPost, Seven & I, CPMC, Exedy

<ul>
<li>The Japanese stock market posted a modest gain of 1% for the week, with the Nikkei closing at 39,470 on Friday</li>
<li>Looking ahead, the market remains sensitive to external catalysts such as U.S. monetary policy decisions (FOMC on 17/18th), the BOJ (18/19th), and developments in China’s economic policies.</li>
<li>Topcon's stock skyrocketed 63% this week, fueled by speculation that the eyecare leader may go private.</li>
</ul>


The Japanese stock market posted a modest gain of 1% for the week, with the Nikkei closing at 39,470 on Friday
Looking ahead, the market remains sensitive to external catalysts such as U.S. monetary policy decisions (FOMC on 17/18th), the BOJ (18/19th), and developments in China’s economic policies.
Topcon's stock skyrocketed 63% this week, fueled by speculation that the eyecare leader may go private.


Japan Weekly | Nikkei Edges Up; Topcon, Rakuten, Oji, Bandai

Japan

Oji Holdings Corp manufactures paper, pulp, and processed paper goods, including news print, carbonless paper, wrapping and packaging paper, and paperboard. The Company also produces sanitary paper goods such as disposable diapers. Oji Paper has forests in Japan and overseas, and operates forestry, timber sales, and real estate businesses.

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Oji Holdings (3861 JP)

Oji Paper (3861 JP) - Big New Buyback After Crossholding Sales And An Activist Peeking From Register

Oji Paper announced a higher cross-holding selldown target in Nov24. Yesterday, they announced a big buyback. The stock is <10x EPS and 0.47x book....

Travis Lundy

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Japan Activist Briefs | Furukawa, Oji

Activist Investment firms are increasing stakes in companies like Topcon, Furukawa Machinery, and Oji Holdings, signaling potential bidding wars...

Mark Chadwick

Last Week in Event SPACE: NEC Network, SingPost, Seven & I, CPMC, Exedy

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Weekly | Nikkei Edges Up; Topcon, Rakuten, Oji, Bandai

Japanese stock market sees 1% gain, Topcon's stock soars 63%, market remains sensitive to external factors like U.S. monetary policy and China's...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Oji Paper (3861 JP) - Big New Buyback After Crossholding Sales And An Activist Peeking From Register

Oji Paper announced a higher cross-holding selldown target in Nov24. Yesterday, they announced a big buyback. The stock is <10x EPS and 0.47x book....

Travis Lundy

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

Japan Activist Briefs | Furukawa, Oji

​Activist Investment firms are increasing stakes in companies like Topcon, Furukawa Machinery, and Oji Holdings, signaling potential bidding wars...

Mark Chadwick

Last Week in Event SPACE: NEC Network, SingPost, Seven & I, CPMC, Exedy

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Japan Weekly | Nikkei Edges Up; Topcon, Rakuten, Oji, Bandai

​Japanese stock market sees 1% gain, Topcon's stock soars 63%, market remains sensitive to external factors like U.S. monetary policy and China's...

Mark Chadwick

Activist Investment firms are increasing stakes in companies like Topcon, Furukawa Machinery, and Oji Holdings, signaling potential bidding wars...

Japanese stock market sees 1% gain, Topcon's stock soars 63%, market remains sensitive to external factors like U.S. monetary policy and China's...