China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

For all the concern focused on the Chinese economy, financial markets, and credit, the RMB dominates them all.  If a hard landing or crisis like scenario were to take place, it would undoubtedly involve significant devaluation.Aware of this dynamic the PBOC has been working to control both the price and the flow of the CNY, CNH, and the accompanying assorted derivatives resulting in clear market distortions, some of which we have covered here.  The impact of official intervention, though we…

For all the concern focused on the Chinese economy, financial markets, and credit, the RMB dominates them all.  If a hard landing or crisis like scenario were to take place, it would undoubtedly involve significant devaluation.Aware of this dynamic the PBOC has been working to control both the price and the flow of the CNY, CNH, and the accompanying assorted derivatives resulting in clear market distortions, some of which we have covered here.  The impact of official intervention, though we…

RMB Report: Near Term Stability, Long Term Depreciation

International bank transaction data was released on the 20th and we believe this provides a better gauge of currency flows than more widely reported data.  There are large acknowledged discrepancies between Customs report import, export, and surplus numbers and the bank reported data due to fraudulent payment or invoicing issues.  This then permeates the calculations on balance of payment and other flow issues that provide serious distortions on currency flows.Current account based upon…

International bank transaction data was released on the 20th and we believe this provides a better gauge of currency flows than more widely reported data.  There are large acknowledged discrepancies between Customs report import, export, and surplus numbers and the bank reported data due to fraudulent payment or invoicing issues.  This then permeates the calculations on balance of payment and other flow issues that provide serious distortions on currency flows.Current account based upon…

RMB Outflows Continue As Inflows Collapsing

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China's leadership is aware of the weaknesses in its armed forces, who have been found to be physically unfit, untested, unmotivated  and corrupt. Two recent examples show just how weak the armed forces are at dealing with natural disasters, let alone a situation where national security was at stake.

China's leadership is aware of the weaknesses in its armed forces, who have been found to be physically unfit, untested, unmotivated  and corrupt. Two recent examples show just how weak the armed forces are at dealing with natural disasters, let alone a situation where national security was at stake.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

While credit quality is certainly the most important issue facing China’s banks, we can not dismiss core income. This is what will pay for credit costs. But China’s banks are quietly facing a vanishing of their asset yields and therefore, net interest margins (NIM). Where interest rates are not coming down in the quarter, we suspect that much of the worsening in asset yields and NIM is due to loans not paying market rates.These may more affectionately be called NPLs, restructured loans or…

While credit quality is certainly the most important issue facing China’s banks, we can not dismiss core income. This is what will pay for credit costs. But China’s banks are quietly facing a vanishing of their asset yields and therefore, net interest margins (NIM). Where interest rates are not coming down in the quarter, we suspect that much of the worsening in asset yields and NIM is due to loans not paying market rates.These may more affectionately be called NPLs, restructured loans or…

Yesterday was money and credit data release data in China.  Most of the numbers grew robustly, as is always expected with this specific release, but there were two numbers that we wanted to highlight because of what they mean for other issues.First, new RMB loans in China were up 9% YoY and 16% YTD YoY.  This represents the ongoing rapid expansion of credit in China that at best seems unsustainable at worst reckless.  Despite talk of restricting credit expansion, credit is growing more than…

Yesterday was money and credit data release data in China.  Most of the numbers grew robustly, as is always expected with this specific release, but there were two numbers that we wanted to highlight because of what they mean for other issues.First, new RMB loans in China were up 9% YoY and 16% YTD YoY.  This represents the ongoing rapid expansion of credit in China that at best seems unsustainable at worst reckless.  Despite talk of restricting credit expansion, credit is growing more than…

The Importance of the Obscure: Banker's Acceptance and Capital Flows Out of China

China

Pacific Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities brokerage, custodian, underwriting, trading and investment consulting services.

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Pacific Securities Co/The A (601099 CH)

RMB Report: Near Term Stability, Long Term Depreciation

For all the concern focused on the Chinese economy, financial markets, and credit, the RMB dominates them all. If a hard landing or crisis like...

Christopher Balding

RMB Outflows Continue As Inflows Collapsing

International bank transaction data was released on the 20th and we believe this provides a better gauge of currency flows than more widely...

Christopher Balding

The Chinese Military: Fit for Purpose?

China's leadership is aware of the weaknesses in its armed forces, who have been found to be physically unfit, untested, unmotivated and corrupt....

Bixmoor

The Quiet Collapse in China Bank Margins

While credit quality is certainly the most important issue facing China’s banks, we can not dismiss core income. This is what will pay for credit...

Daniel Tabbush

The Importance of the Obscure: Banker's Acceptance and Capital Flows Out of China

Yesterday was money and credit data release data in China. Most of the numbers grew robustly, as is always expected with this specific release,...

Christopher Balding

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