Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

China Shenhua Energy Co H / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be up to 6 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance, mainly driven by the deletions.</li>
<li>If there are six changes to the index, estimated one-way turnover is 6.47% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$4,124m.</li>
<li>There is large short interest on quite a lot of stocks and will play an important role in the rebalance.</li>
</ul>


There could be up to 6 changes to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the December rebalance, mainly driven by the deletions.
If there are six changes to the index, estimated one-way turnover is 6.47% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$4,124m.
There is large short interest on quite a lot of stocks and will play an important role in the rebalance.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Could Be A BIG One

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Leapmotor (2007699D HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/onewo-space-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36204:1" rel="noopener">Onewo Space-Tech (ONEWO HK)</a> are pre-marketing a US$1.5 billion and US$2.0 billion HKEx IPO, respectively.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">MACA Ltd (MLD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-net-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1050:1" rel="noopener">Link Net (LINK IJ)</a>.</li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Leapmotor (2007699D HK) and Onewo Space-Tech (ONEWO HK) are pre-marketing a US$1.5 billion and US$2.0 billion HKEx IPO, respectively.
Event-Driven developments - BYD (1211 HK), Giordano International (709 HK), MACA Ltd (MLD AU), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Link Net (LINK IJ).


Weekly Deals Digest (04 Sep) - Giordano, BYD, Link Net, MACA, Nitro, Nearmap, Leapmotor, Onewo

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>’s shares declined by -8% on <a href="https://di.hkex.com.hk/di/NSForm2.aspx?fn=CS20220829E00231&amp;amp;sa2=ns&amp;amp;sid=2508&amp;amp;sd=30/08/2021&amp;amp;ed=30/08/2022&amp;amp;sa1=cl&amp;amp;scsd=30/08/2021&amp;amp;sced=30/08/2022&amp;amp;sc=01211&amp;amp;src=Main&amp;amp;lang=EN&amp;amp;tk=ds" target="_blank" rel="noopener">disclosure</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berkshire-hathaway-inc-cl-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8635:1" rel="noopener">Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US)</a> trimmed its stake from 20.04% to 19.92% of outstanding H Shares. </li>
<li>Berkshire will likely follow its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petrochina-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:262:1" rel="noopener">PetroChina (857 HK)</a> playbook and materially sell down over the next few months. Buffet stated that the PetroChina exit was “a decision based on valuation.”</li>
<li>Berkshire will apply the same investment discipline to the BYD stake. While the shares are trading at a discount to historical multiples, the Berkshire stake is an overhang.</li>
</ul>



BYD (1211 HK)’s shares declined by -8% on disclosure that Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US) trimmed its stake from 20.04% to 19.92% of outstanding H Shares. 
Berkshire will likely follow its PetroChina (857 HK) playbook and materially sell down over the next few months. Buffet stated that the PetroChina exit was “a decision based on valuation.”
Berkshire will apply the same investment discipline to the BYD stake. While the shares are trading at a discount to historical multiples, the Berkshire stake is an overhang.


Berkshire BYD’s Selldown Likely to Follow Its PetroChina Playbook

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Friday in US time, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), China's MOF, and the US Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) "agreed" on a Statement of Protocol.</li>
<li>This SoP sets the outlines for PCAOB access to inspect/investigate audit papers and accounting firms in China and HK for companies listed in the US.</li>
<li>The releases' difference in language is to be expected - different constituencies - but as PCAOB Chair Williams said, “Now we will find out whether those promises hold up."
</li>
</ul>


Friday in US time, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), China's MOF, and the US Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) "agreed" on a Statement of Protocol.
This SoP sets the outlines for PCAOB access to inspect/investigate audit papers and accounting firms in China and HK for companies listed in the US.
The releases' difference in language is to be expected - different constituencies - but as PCAOB Chair Williams said, “Now we will find out whether those promises hold up."



CSRC and PCAOB "Agree" On Audit Terms - Now PCAOB Will Try To Prove a Negative

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a>'s Free-Float Adjustment Factor (FAF) increases from 3% to 40% following lock-up expiry and the stock will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-pacific-insurance-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6177:1" rel="noopener">China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a>. </li>
<li>Using prices from the close on 19 August, estimated one-way turnover is 3.82% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$2,751m at the close on 2 September.</li>
<li>Increase in the FAF on a couple of stocks saves them from index deletion in September but is probably not enough to save them from index deletion in December.</li>
</ul>



SenseTime Group (20 HK)'s Free-Float Adjustment Factor (FAF) increases from 3% to 40% following lock-up expiry and the stock will replace China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK) in the HSCEI INDEX. 
Using prices from the close on 19 August, estimated one-way turnover is 3.82% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$2,751m at the close on 2 September.
Increase in the FAF on a couple of stocks saves them from index deletion in September but is probably not enough to save them from index deletion in December.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: SenseTime (20 HK) Added As FAF Increases Dramatically

China

PetroChina Company Limited operates as an oil and gas company. The Company offers crude oil and oil products exploration, development, production and marketing. PetroChina also markets petrochemical products and derivative chemicals.

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PetroChina (601857 CH)

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Could Be A BIG One

There could be up to 6 changes to the HSCEI in December resulting in one-way turnover of 6.47% and in a one-way trade of HK$4,124m. Short interest...

Brian Freitas

Weekly Deals Digest (04 Sep) - Giordano, BYD, Link Net, MACA, Nitro, Nearmap, Leapmotor, Onewo

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (BYD, Giordano, MACA, Nitro, Link Net) and ECM (Leapmotor, Onewo).

Arun George

Berkshire BYD’s Selldown Likely to Follow Its PetroChina Playbook

Berkshire will likely follow its PetroChina playbook and materially sell down over the next few months. While the valuation is undemanding, the...

Arun George

CSRC and PCAOB "Agree" On Audit Terms - Now PCAOB Will Try To Prove a Negative

The PCAOB and CSRC announced they had signed a Statement of Protocol which allows the PCAOB to move forward with testing whether there will be...

Travis Lundy

HSCEI Index Rebalance: SenseTime (20 HK) Added As FAF Increases Dramatically

SenseTime's FAF increases from 3% to 40% & the stock will replace CPIC in the HSCEI. Passive trackers will need to buy 7 days of ADV on SenseTime...

Brian Freitas

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