Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

It is no easy task generating decent relatively low-risk long-term returns portfolio. Over the last decade I have put a lot of thinking into building such a portfolio. It did involve risk taking and periods of relative volatility. I have found several golden rules, also based on failures of up close experiences from myself and others. My hands down worse investment was not cutting losses in certain names into the 2008 crash – most notably Citigroup shares, some of which I was forcibly locked into owing to management options with false information from HR. GE was another counter I took a beating on in 2008+.But some 2009-09 investment lessons I found mirrored some of my 1987-88 market crash lessons. Over time I have reduced volatility in my portfolio.  My main lesson for my conservative investment style was that buying into the heart of a crash takes quite a bit of time and patience to claw back to break even on average picks.  But in the end I stuck to this value style for increasing positions a number of times over the years. What follows is a no-holds barred account of my rules based investments, and losses and gains which have led to decent long-term performance despite a few scary gaps.The second half of this piece is a dialogue with a global investor friend of 15-20 years.

It is no easy task generating decent relatively low-risk long-term returns portfolio. Over the last decade I have put a lot of thinking into building such a portfolio. It did involve risk taking and periods of relative volatility. I have found several golden rules, also based on failures of up close experiences from myself and others. My hands down worse investment was not cutting losses in certain names into the 2008 crash – most notably Citigroup shares, some of which I was forcibly locked into owing to management options with false information from HR. GE was another counter I took a beating on in 2008+.But some 2009-09 investment lessons I found mirrored some of my 1987-88 market crash lessons. Over time I have reduced volatility in my portfolio.  My main lesson for my conservative investment style was that buying into the heart of a crash takes quite a bit of time and patience to claw back to break even on average picks.  But in the end I stuck to this value style for increasing positions a number of times over the years. What follows is a no-holds barred account of my rules based investments, and losses and gains which have led to decent long-term performance despite a few scary gaps.The second half of this piece is a dialogue with a global investor friend of 15-20 years.

Building a Rules Based Perpetual Portfolio(Incl Global Investor Q & A)

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Underperformance continues as markets look past near-term earnings<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/009/135/original/t1.JPG?1465610335" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="9135"></figure> • The surge in the seaborne crude trade – a result of continued supply glut and low crude prices boosted the fortunes of tanker shipping companies in 2015; tanker operators reported a sharp growth in topline and registered multi-fold increase in earnings and profitability. The year gone by was one of the best for the industry since the GFC in 2008-09 as freight rates remained firm throughout the year; with occasional seasonal…

Underperformance continues as markets look past near-term earnings • The surge in the seaborne crude trade – a result of continued supply glut and low crude prices boosted the fortunes of tanker shipping companies in 2015; tanker operators reported a sharp growth in topline and registered multi-fold increase in earnings and profitability. The year gone by was one of the best for the industry since the GFC in 2008-09 as freight rates remained firm throughout the year; with occasional seasonal…

The rebound in crude oil and gas prices brought some solace to shareholders of gas shipping companies as stocks of LNG and LPG operators started trending up. Nonetheless, investors have been discreet while backing a company. Since the start of the year, Gaslog in the LNG shipping and StealthGas among the LPG ship operators have yielded handsome returns. We believe attractive valuation was one of the driving factor, which led investors to bottom fishing.<ul><li>LPG shipping – US ethylene plants to aid handysize vessels</li><li>LPG shipping – downside capped in coaster segment</li><li>LNG shipping remains subdued, but will improve from 2018</li><li>Chinese effect – gaining prominence in gas shipping, </li><li>China natural gas demand to show steady rise</li><li>China needs additional LNG to meet its growing natural gas demand</li><li>Chinese effect – New shipping capacity required for growing imports</li><li>Chinese LPG consumption is also expected to increase</li></ul>

The rebound in crude oil and gas prices brought some solace to shareholders of gas shipping companies as stocks of LNG and LPG operators started trending up. Nonetheless, investors have been discreet while backing a company. Since the start of the year, Gaslog in the LNG shipping and StealthGas among the LPG ship operators have yielded handsome returns. We believe attractive valuation was one of the driving factor, which led investors to bottom fishing.LPG shipping – US ethylene plants to aid handysize vesselsLPG shipping – downside capped in coaster segmentLNG shipping remains subdued, but will improve from 2018Chinese effect – gaining prominence in gas shipping, China natural gas demand to show steady riseChina needs additional LNG to meet its growing natural gas demandChinese effect – New shipping capacity required for growing importsChinese LPG consumption is also expected to increase

Gas Shipping - Gaining Traction Amid Recovery in Oil Prices

Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Probably the next most important thing is actually not the Brexit, but the next few Fed hikes<ul><li>Whilst Jun is live, I think Jul or Sep are more likely with the second hike in Dec, those Fed minutes from last week left very little to the imagination. They were hawkish</li><li>Fed implied probability of two rate hikes by year end is too low at 25%, should be closer to 50. The street is behind the curve on this and/or does not believe it (ripples with 2015)</li><li>Where does the DXY go, given we got to 100.17 (Nov 30) going into just one rate hike in Dec last year? Where do US 10yrs go, given we are at 1.83% &amp; we were c. 2.30% in Dec last year?</li><li>Flash PMI themed week ahead, including key GDP readings out of Europe. UK will get 2nd GDP reading with mkt expecting +2.1% YoY</li></ul>

Probably the next most important thing is actually not the Brexit, but the next few Fed hikesWhilst Jun is live, I think Jul or Sep are more likely with the second hike in Dec, those Fed minutes from last week left very little to the imagination. They were hawkishFed implied probability of two rate hikes by year end is too low at 25%, should be closer to 50. The street is behind the curve on this and/or does not believe it (ripples with 2015)Where does the DXY go, given we got to 100.17 (Nov 30) going into just one rate hike in Dec last year? Where do US 10yrs go, given we are at 1.83% &amp; we were c. 2.30% in Dec last year?Flash PMI themed week ahead, including key GDP readings out of Europe. UK will get 2nd GDP reading with mkt expecting +2.1% YoY

Global Macro Take: WK 21 – The Fed To Hike Over The Next 3 Meetings [Jun 15, Jul 27, Sep 21]

Hao Wang, CFA

This is a quick update from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/be-aggressive-in-q1-2016-and-be-defensive-through-rest-of-2016" target="_blank">my start-of-the year call</a> for a weaker dollar and rally in commodities in Q1 and a bit of extension but reversal in Q2. Almost exactly as I wrote, the dollar (DXY) has weakened 7.9% since the high of 99.83 at the start of the year to 91.92 in early May, commodities (SPGSCI Index) has rallied 35.7% during the same period. China, which has been a center of risk since last August, has clearly seen stabilization in economy, capital outflow, and stock markets. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/008/126/original/2.png?1463320298" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="8126"><figcaption class="figcaption">Dollar</figcaption></figure>…

This is a quick update from my start-of-the year call for a weaker dollar and rally in commodities in Q1 and a bit of extension but reversal in Q2. Almost exactly as I wrote, the dollar (DXY) has weakened 7.9% since the high of 99.83 at the start of the year to 91.92 in early May, commodities (SPGSCI Index) has rallied 35.7% during the same period. China, which has been a center of risk since last August, has clearly seen stabilization in economy, capital outflow, and stock markets. Dollar…

Be Prepared for a Stronger Dollar in 2nd Half

United States

Pioneer Natural Resources Company is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company engages in onshore oil and gas drilling, exploration and production in the United States.

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Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD US)

Building a Rules Based Perpetual Portfolio(Incl Global Investor Q & A)

It is no easy task generating decent relatively low-risk long-term returns portfolio. Over the last decade I have put a lot of thinking into...

Charles De Trenck

Tanker Shipping - Stocks Going Nowhere?

Underperformance continues as markets look past near-term earnings • The surge in the seaborne crude trade – a result of continued supply glut and...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Gas Shipping - Gaining Traction Amid Recovery in Oil Prices

The rebound in crude oil and gas prices brought some solace to shareholders of gas shipping companies as stocks of LNG and LPG operators started...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Global Macro Take: WK 21 – The Fed To Hike Over The Next 3 Meetings [Jun 15, Jul 27, Sep 21]

Probably the next most important thing is actually not the Brexit, but the next few Fed hikes Whilst Jun is live, I think Jul or Sep are more...

Kay Van-Petersen

Be Prepared for a Stronger Dollar in 2nd Half

This is a quick update from my start-of-the year call for a weaker dollar and rally in commodities in Q1 and a bit of extension but reversal in Q2....

Hao Wang, CFA

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