European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discount Opportunity: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/porsche-automobil-holding-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21691:1" rel="noopener">Porsche Automobil Holding (PAH3 GR)</a> SE trades at a ~32% NAV discount—above peers—despite improving balance-sheet structure, stable dividends from VW and Porsche AG, and diminishing legal risks.</li>
<li>Deleveraging Catalyst: Ongoing debt reduction, stronger dividend visibility, and extended maturities enhance transparency and reduce equity risk, offering clear scope for discount compression toward the mid-20s.</li>
<li>Asymmetric Upside: With 99% of assets in VW and Porsche AG, Porsche SE remains a high-convexity play on discount normalization and legal clarity, offering leveraged exposure to core holdings.</li>
</ul>


Discount Opportunity: Porsche Automobil Holding (PAH3 GR) SE trades at a ~32% NAV discount—above peers—despite improving balance-sheet structure, stable dividends from VW and Porsche AG, and diminishing legal risks.
Deleveraging Catalyst: Ongoing debt reduction, stronger dividend visibility, and extended maturities enhance transparency and reduce equity risk, offering clear scope for discount compression toward the mid-20s.
Asymmetric Upside: With 99% of assets in VW and Porsche AG, Porsche SE remains a high-convexity play on discount normalization and legal clarity, offering leveraged exposure to core holdings.


Porsche Automobile Holding: Q3-25 Update — Discount Still Wide, Deleveraging on Track

<ul>
<li>Porsche SE is trading at a 35.3% discount to NAV, vs. 32.4% long-term average, implying a 68% probability that Porsche SE will be liable for c. €6.5 billion legal claims.</li>
<li>I think this is too harsh. Shares are trading at a Fwd P/E of 2.5x and a dividend yield of 7.8%, which I consider very attractive. </li>
<li>Porsche SE presents an attractive opportunity to gain exposure to Volkswagen and Porsche AG. Porsche SE is focusing on deleveraging which should drive a reduction in the discount.</li>
</ul>


Porsche SE is trading at a 35.3% discount to NAV, vs. 32.4% long-term average, implying a 68% probability that Porsche SE will be liable for c. €6.5 billion legal claims.
I think this is too harsh. Shares are trading at a Fwd P/E of 2.5x and a dividend yield of 7.8%, which I consider very attractive. 
Porsche SE presents an attractive opportunity to gain exposure to Volkswagen and Porsche AG. Porsche SE is focusing on deleveraging which should drive a reduction in the discount.


Porsche Automobile Holding: H1, Model Update, Discount to NAV

<ul>
<li>
Dividend cut reflects strategic shift: Porsche SE cut its 2024 dividend due to reduced Volkswagen inflows and focus on deleveraging, limiting its near-term appeal as a dividend pass-through holding structure.</li>
<li>
Diversification stillsSuperficial: despite claims of expanding into defense and infrastructure, Porsche SE’s portfolio remains 99% tied to Volkswagen and Porsche AG, making its diversification strategy more rhetorical than real.</li>
<li>
Discount to NAV remains high: Porsche SE trades at a 33.4% NAV discount, reflecting legal overhangs and structural inefficiencies. Favorable rulings could trigger re-rating if legal risks prove overstated.</li>
</ul>



Dividend cut reflects strategic shift: Porsche SE cut its 2024 dividend due to reduced Volkswagen inflows and focus on deleveraging, limiting its near-term appeal as a dividend pass-through holding structure.

Diversification stillsSuperficial: despite claims of expanding into defense and infrastructure, Porsche SE’s portfolio remains 99% tied to Volkswagen and Porsche AG, making its diversification strategy more rhetorical than real.

Discount to NAV remains high: Porsche SE trades at a 33.4% NAV discount, reflecting legal overhangs and structural inefficiencies. Favorable rulings could trigger re-rating if legal risks prove overstated.


Porsche Automobile Holding: Q1 2025, Discount to NAV

<ul>
<li>Porsche SE, a holding company, controls 53.3% of Volkswagen (VW) and 25% (+1 share) of Porsche AG, leveraging a dual-class share structure to consolidate control with minimal economic stakes.</li>
<li>Net debt of €5.16 billion, accrued from the Porsche AG stake acquisition, relies heavily on VW and Porsche AG dividends for debt servicing, with CF uncertainties tied to VW's restructuring.</li>
<li>Porsche SE trades at a 31.8% discount to NAV, reflecting legal liabilities, debt reduction priorities, and holding structure complexities, but this discount could tighten to 20% as risks subside.</li>
</ul>


Porsche SE, a holding company, controls 53.3% of Volkswagen (VW) and 25% (+1 share) of Porsche AG, leveraging a dual-class share structure to consolidate control with minimal economic stakes.
Net debt of €5.16 billion, accrued from the Porsche AG stake acquisition, relies heavily on VW and Porsche AG dividends for debt servicing, with CF uncertainties tied to VW's restructuring.
Porsche SE trades at a 31.8% discount to NAV, reflecting legal liabilities, debt reduction priorities, and holding structure complexities, but this discount could tighten to 20% as risks subside.


High Conviction 2025: Porsche's SE Discount to NAV Reduction

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Himax Technologies Inc Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We hosted a conference call recently with Himax management, the global leader in automotive touch display controllers; the company is experiencing a uniquely stronger automotive supply/demand environment than some peers.</li>
<li>Discussed in detail how larger or more sophisticated interior displays can drive higher dollar content of display controllers per vehicle. We examine trending new car designs with much larger displays.</li>
<li>We forecast an exponential jump-up in display controller content value per vehicle as beautiful display designs are becoming key USP for auto brands; Maintain our Structural Long rating for Himax.</li>
</ul>


We hosted a conference call recently with Himax management, the global leader in automotive touch display controllers; the company is experiencing a uniquely stronger automotive supply/demand environment than some peers.
Discussed in detail how larger or more sophisticated interior displays can drive higher dollar content of display controllers per vehicle. We examine trending new car designs with much larger displays.
We forecast an exponential jump-up in display controller content value per vehicle as beautiful display designs are becoming key USP for auto brands; Maintain our Structural Long rating for Himax.


TechChain Insights: Call with Himax, How New In-Car Displays Can Quadruple Chip Content Per Vehicle

Germany

Porsche Automobil Holding SE is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers development, production, and sale of automobiles along with financial services. Porsche operates worldwide.

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Porsche Automobil Holding (PAH3 GR)

Porsche Automobile Holding: Q3-25 Update — Discount Still Wide, Deleveraging on Track

Porsche SE offers a pure play on VW and Porsche AG via a 32% NAV discount—debt reduction, legal clarity, and dividend stability could drive re...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Porsche Automobile Holding: H1, Model Update, Discount to NAV

Porsche SE is trading at a 35.3% discount to NAV, vs. 32.4% long-term average, implying a 68% probability that Porsche SE will be liable for c....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Porsche Automobile Holding: Q1 2025, Discount to NAV

Porsche SE trades at a 33.4% NAV discount, reflecting legal and structural overhangs. Dividend cuts and weak diversification weigh, but court wins...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

High Conviction 2025: Porsche's SE Discount to NAV Reduction

Porsche SE is currently trading at a 31.8% discount to NAV. The discount will continue to tighten toward approximately 20% as legal claim risks...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

TechChain Insights: Call with Himax, How New In-Car Displays Can Quadruple Chip Content Per Vehicle

We discussed in depth the company's latest insights in how larger interior displays in autos are driving higher dollar content of display...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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