Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Primary Health Properties / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Primary Health Properties’ (PHP’s) £1.6bn accretive acquisition of Assura creates a sector specialist REIT of scale, strongly positioned to profitably deliver the investment that primary healthcare systems in both the UK and Ireland require. While UK market rental growth accelerates, the acquisition synergies provide a new driver of earnings and dividend growth. Yet the shares are yielding a highly attractive c 8%, more than 300 basis points above 10-year gilts, with a strong outlook for DPS growth.</p>

Primary Health Properties’ (PHP’s) £1.6bn accretive acquisition of Assura creates a sector specialist REIT of scale, strongly positioned to profitably deliver the investment that primary healthcare systems in both the UK and Ireland require. While UK market rental growth accelerates, the acquisition synergies provide a new driver of earnings and dividend growth. Yet the shares are yielding a highly attractive c 8%, more than 300 basis points above 10-year gilts, with a strong outlook for DPS growth.

Primary Health Properties — A specialist REIT of scale

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The deal has moved into its closing stretch, with process milestones largely secured. From here, this feels more like a basis clean-up than a binary event, with execution discipline paramount.</li>
<li>Value now leans on PHP shares rather than regulatory drama. Hedging the stock leg frames the opportunity; avoiding complexity and timing slippage likely matters more than squeezing every basis point.</li>
<li>Squeeze-Out is advancing; settlement expected in October as delisting completes. I recommend treating CMA headlines as background noise and keeping sizing disciplined.</li>
</ul>


The deal has moved into its closing stretch, with process milestones largely secured. From here, this feels more like a basis clean-up than a binary event, with execution discipline paramount.
Value now leans on PHP shares rather than regulatory drama. Hedging the stock leg frames the opportunity; avoiding complexity and timing slippage likely matters more than squeezing every basis point.
Squeeze-Out is advancing; settlement expected in October as delisting completes. I recommend treating CMA headlines as background noise and keeping sizing disciplined.


Assura Thing: PHP’s Clean-Up Basis into October

<ul>
<li>PHP’s offer has gained momentum, with 8.82% acceptances, offering a +2.13% gross spread, but at a discount to EPRA NTA. The share component introduces long-term upside potential.</li>
<li>KKR’s offer remains the more attractive option for immediate liquidity, offering a +3.79% gross spread with an estimated 46.1% annualized return, but needs to secure more acceptances by August 12.</li>
<li>The Takeover Panel auction remains a key driver, with higher bids likely in a competitive scenario. The probability-weighted target price (TP) for Assura is 50.81p, reflecting potential upside from an auction or bid revision.</li>
</ul>


PHP’s offer has gained momentum, with 8.82% acceptances, offering a +2.13% gross spread, but at a discount to EPRA NTA. The share component introduces long-term upside potential.
KKR’s offer remains the more attractive option for immediate liquidity, offering a +3.79% gross spread with an estimated 46.1% annualized return, but needs to secure more acceptances by August 12.
The Takeover Panel auction remains a key driver, with higher bids likely in a competitive scenario. The probability-weighted target price (TP) for Assura is 50.81p, reflecting potential upside from an auction or bid revision.


Assura Takeover: Potential Auction Driving Bid Upside – KKR Vs. PHP with 50.81p Target Price

<ul>
<li>KKR’s firm cash bid of 50.24p offers a modest +0.56% premium to Assura’s current price, anchoring downside risk in this live UK REIT takeover contest.</li>
<li>PHP’s offer implies upside only if its share price rebounds; spread turns positive beyond 98p, with optionality up to +7.4% if PHP retests its six-month high.</li>
<li>Limited arbitrage remains, but a final round auction or revised bid could unlock renewed spread capture; monitor deal calendar ahead of the 12 August offer deadline.</li>
</ul>


KKR’s firm cash bid of 50.24p offers a modest +0.56% premium to Assura’s current price, anchoring downside risk in this live UK REIT takeover contest.
PHP’s offer implies upside only if its share price rebounds; spread turns positive beyond 98p, with optionality up to +7.4% if PHP retests its six-month high.
Limited arbitrage remains, but a final round auction or revised bid could unlock renewed spread capture; monitor deal calendar ahead of the 12 August offer deadline.


Assura: Bid Floor in Place, Upside Optionality Hinges on Revised PHP Terms or Auction Outcome

Managing Director, Golden Section Capital

Garreth Elston

Managing Director

Golden Section Equity Research

Golden Section Capital

Golden Section Capital is a private international investment, specialist independent equity research, and corporate finance consulting services provider focussing on real estate and infrastructure. 

Paid for corporate research on Real Estate and Infrastructure companies. Plus independent pieces on various real estate companies and themes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Building upon the positive momentum in April, May was once again a positive month.</li>
<li>All Property Index ended the month up 4.22% in total returns (key to note is that it was the last three trading days that saved Index from a down month).</li>
<li>Overall market sentiment showed cautious optimism, supported by some encouraging company results, but was arguably saved by the SARB's 25 bps interest rate cut injecting a shot of optimism.</li>
</ul>


Building upon the positive momentum in April, May was once again a positive month.
All Property Index ended the month up 4.22% in total returns (key to note is that it was the last three trading days that saved Index from a down month).
Overall market sentiment showed cautious optimism, supported by some encouraging company results, but was arguably saved by the SARB's 25 bps interest rate cut injecting a shot of optimism.


South Africa Listed Property Review - May 2025

United Kingdom

Primary Health Properties PLC purchases freehold and long lease healthcare properties in the United Kingdom.  The Company leases the properties to health authorities and the National Health Service.

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Primary Health Properties (PHP LN)

Primary Health Properties — A specialist REIT of scale

Primary Health Properties’ (PHP’s) £1.6bn accretive acquisition of Assura creates a sector specialist REIT of scale, strongly positioned to...

Edison Investment Research

Assura Thing: PHP’s Clean-Up Basis into October

Assura/PHP heading into endgame: squeeze-out advancing, October settlement in view. This is a basis clean-up, not a binary bet—execution and hedge...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Assura Takeover: Potential Auction Driving Bid Upside – KKR Vs. PHP with 50.81p Target Price

Assura’s takeover battle is heating up with PHP’s growing support (8.82% acceptances) and KKR’s all-cash offer providing immediate value. A...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Assura: Bid Floor in Place, Upside Optionality Hinges on Revised PHP Terms or Auction Outcome

KKR offers a bid floor; PHP needs a rally or sweetener to compete. At 49.96p, Assura trades just below both. Optionality remains if a revision or...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

South Africa Listed Property Review - May 2025

May saw a positive month for the South African All Property Index, with a 4.22% increase in total returns, thanks in part to a last-minute boost...

Golden Section Capital

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Primary Health Properties — A specialist REIT of scale

Primary Health Properties’ (PHP’s) £1.6bn accretive acquisition of Assura creates a sector specialist REIT of scale, strongly positioned to...

Edison Investment Research

Assura Thing: PHP’s Clean-Up Basis into October

Assura/PHP heading into endgame: squeeze-out advancing, October settlement in view. This is a basis clean-up, not a binary bet—execution and hedge...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Assura Takeover: Potential Auction Driving Bid Upside – KKR Vs. PHP with 50.81p Target Price

Assura’s takeover battle is heating up with PHP’s growing support (8.82% acceptances) and KKR’s all-cash offer providing immediate value. A...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Assura: Bid Floor in Place, Upside Optionality Hinges on Revised PHP Terms or Auction Outcome

KKR offers a bid floor; PHP needs a rally or sweetener to compete. At 49.96p, Assura trades just below both. Optionality remains if a revision or...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

South Africa Listed Property Review - May 2025

​May saw a positive month for the South African All Property Index, with a 4.22% increase in total returns, thanks in part to a last-minute boost...

Golden Section Capital

May saw a positive month for the South African All Property Index, with a 4.22% increase in total returns, thanks in part to a last-minute boost...