European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Assura draws competing offers: KKR offers 49.4p cash per share, while PHP counters with a 50.53p blend of cash and stock, sparking a rare UK healthcare REIT bidding war.</li>
<li>With pro forma LTV below 50% and strong interest coverage, PHP can raise its cash component by 2–3p/share without losing investment-grade status; PUSU deadline looms 14 June.</li>
<li>Arbitrage investors can go long Assura and hedge PHP exposure via CFDs at a 0.3769 ratio, isolating deal spread upside while managing market risk.</li>
</ul>


Assura draws competing offers: KKR offers 49.4p cash per share, while PHP counters with a 50.53p blend of cash and stock, sparking a rare UK healthcare REIT bidding war.
With pro forma LTV below 50% and strong interest coverage, PHP can raise its cash component by 2–3p/share without losing investment-grade status; PUSU deadline looms 14 June.
Arbitrage investors can go long Assura and hedge PHP exposure via CFDs at a 0.3769 ratio, isolating deal spread upside while managing market risk.


Certainty Vs. Upside: Navigating the Assura-KKR-PHP Showdown

Managing Director, Golden Section Capital

Garreth Elston

Managing Director

Golden Section Equity Research

Golden Section Capital

Golden Section Capital is a private international investment, specialist independent equity research, and corporate finance consulting services provider focussing on real estate and infrastructure. 

Paid for corporate research on Real Estate and Infrastructure companies. Plus independent pieces on various real estate companies and themes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The SA All Property Index experienced a sharp initial decline precipitated by the US tariff announcements, but staged a strong recovery following a partial pause in tariff implementation. </li>
<li>Global REITs were up +1.25% for the month, but US REITs ended the month down -2.23%.</li>
<li>Despite global turbulence South African property companies demonstrated resilience. Ultimately ending the month firmly in positive territory up +6.54%, pulling the Index back into positivity for the year (YTD +2.15%). </li>
</ul>


The SA All Property Index experienced a sharp initial decline precipitated by the US tariff announcements, but staged a strong recovery following a partial pause in tariff implementation. 
Global REITs were up +1.25% for the month, but US REITs ended the month down -2.23%.
Despite global turbulence South African property companies demonstrated resilience. Ultimately ending the month firmly in positive territory up +6.54%, pulling the Index back into positivity for the year (YTD +2.15%). 


<ul>
<li>KKR’s 49.4p all-cash offer, cum-dividend and matching EPRA NTA, provides a 31.9% premium and ~12.3% gross spread, creating an attractive short-term arbitrage opportunity for investors.</li>
<li>PHP could increase its cash component by 1–2p without breaching investment-grade leverage, supported by strong rental income, refinancing flexibility, and post-merger synergies that enable a credible deleveraging path.</li>
<li>The estimated 2–2.5 month timeline from firm offer to cash settlement positions this deal within a standard UK M&amp;A framework, offering risk arbitrageurs visibility and duration-limited exposure.</li>
</ul>


KKR’s 49.4p all-cash offer, cum-dividend and matching EPRA NTA, provides a 31.9% premium and ~12.3% gross spread, creating an attractive short-term arbitrage opportunity for investors.
PHP could increase its cash component by 1–2p without breaching investment-grade leverage, supported by strong rental income, refinancing flexibility, and post-merger synergies that enable a credible deleveraging path.
The estimated 2–2.5 month timeline from firm offer to cash settlement positions this deal within a standard UK M&amp;A framework, offering risk arbitrageurs visibility and duration-limited exposure.


<ul>
<li>February proved to be largely directionless for SA listed property, with the J803 All Property Index up a paltry 0.27%.</li>
<li>Macro instability has certainly not aided, and the Government of National Unity not being able to deliver a budget on schedule certainly was not a plus.</li>
<li>Latest Rode research continues to point to the Office sector as having bottomed, and Industrial continues to perform well. While the Clur Index shows that Retail continues to perform soundly.</li>
</ul>


February proved to be largely directionless for SA listed property, with the J803 All Property Index up a paltry 0.27%.
Macro instability has certainly not aided, and the Government of National Unity not being able to deliver a budget on schedule certainly was not a plus.
Latest Rode research continues to point to the Office sector as having bottomed, and Industrial continues to perform well. While the Clur Index shows that Retail continues to perform soundly.


South African Listed Property Review February 2025

Research from Hardman & Co, Hardman & Co

Hardman & Co

Research from Hardman & Co

Investment research on quoted companies and funds

Hardman & Co is a multi-disciplinary financial consultancy and investment research firm, employing highly experienced analysts and professionals with a broad range of capital markets expertise. Our clients are public and private businesses as well as fund managers, ranging from start-ups to £1 billion+ market capitalisations. Hardman & Co offers corporate research & consultancy, serving the needs of both public and private companies. We produce gold-standard research with a global reach for trading and investment companies, as well as providing market commentary and analysis. In addition, we carry out a number of bespoke investment-related assignments, including due diligence on bond listings, assessments of private company valuations and other corporate advisory services. We engage with the market through traditional and digital media, offering illuminating video content on corporate management strategy, results communication, interviews and in-house sector discussion.

Equity Bottom-Up

Oxford Nanopore Technologies / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Feature article: Hardman & Co Healthcare Index, 2024 – Tough year for Life Sciences By Dr Martin Hall The main function of the HHI is to monitor the performance, and to highlight the attractiveness, of life sciences investments over the long term, and to try to identify those stocks that have disruptive technologies that consistently allow them to outperform both the index and the markets.</li><li>Many of the 53 constituents of the index are high-risk, with micro-capitalisations and a long way from profitability.</li><li>Despite this, some companies can still make extremely attractive returns for investors.</li></ul>

Feature article: Hardman & Co Healthcare Index, 2024 – Tough year for Life Sciences By Dr Martin Hall The main function of the HHI is to monitor the performance, and to highlight the attractiveness, of life sciences investments over the long term, and to try to identify those stocks that have disruptive technologies that consistently allow them to outperform both the index and the markets.Many of the 53 constituents of the index are high-risk, with micro-capitalisations and a long way from profitability.Despite this, some companies can still make extremely attractive returns for investors.

United Kingdom

Primary Health Properties PLC purchases freehold and long lease healthcare properties in the United Kingdom.  The Company leases the properties to health authorities and the National Health Service.

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Primary Health Properties (PHP LN)

Certainty Vs. Upside: Navigating the Assura-KKR-PHP Showdown

Assura is the target of a rare UK real estate bidding war. With KKR offering certainty and PHP offering a higher blended price, arbitrage investors...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

SA Listed Property Review April 2025

SA property index initially dropped due to US tariffs, but rebounded after paused. Global REITs up for the month, US REITs were down. SA property...

Golden Section Capital

Assura in the Crosshairs

KKR's all-cash offer for Assura provides a premium and arbitrage opportunity for investors, with potential for increased cash component and a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

South African Listed Property Review February 2025

SA listed property had a lacklustre February, despite early sector results being strong. Office is steadily improving, while Industrial and Retail...

Golden Section Capital

Hardman & Co Monthly: January 2025

Feature article: Hardman & Co Healthcare Index, 2024 – Tough year for Life Sciences By Dr Martin Hall The main function of the HHI is to...

Hardman & Co

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Certainty Vs. Upside: Navigating the Assura-KKR-PHP Showdown

Assura is the target of a rare UK real estate bidding war. With KKR offering certainty and PHP offering a higher blended price, arbitrage investors...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

SA Listed Property Review April 2025

​SA property index initially dropped due to US tariffs, but rebounded after paused. Global REITs up for the month, US REITs were down. SA property...

Golden Section Capital

Assura in the Crosshairs

​KKR's all-cash offer for Assura provides a premium and arbitrage opportunity for investors, with potential for increased cash component and a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

South African Listed Property Review February 2025

​SA listed property had a lacklustre February, despite early sector results being strong. Office is steadily improving, while Industrial and Retail...

Golden Section Capital

Hardman & Co Monthly: January 2025

Feature article: Hardman & Co Healthcare Index, 2024 – Tough year for Life Sciences By Dr Martin Hall The main function of the HHI is to...

Hardman & Co

SA property index initially dropped due to US tariffs, but rebounded after paused. Global REITs up for the month, US REITs were down. SA property...

KKR's all-cash offer for Assura provides a premium and arbitrage opportunity for investors, with potential for increased cash component and a...

SA listed property had a lacklustre February, despite early sector results being strong. Office is steadily improving, while Industrial and Retail...