European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Vivendi executed a landmark three-way spin-off in December 2024, <em>aiming</em> (but not succeeding) to eliminate its conglomerate discount and unlock shareholder value by listing Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette separately.</li>
<li>Following Telecom Italia's strategic unwinding, Vivendi incurred over €2 billion in losses but recovered nearly €1 billion in cash through divestments, highlighting its shift toward portfolio streamlining and deleveraging.</li>
<li>Vivendi now operates as a focused investment holding with UMG comprising over 60% of its asset base, but high concentration and equity beta expose the group to significant portfolio risk.</li>
</ul>


Vivendi executed a landmark three-way spin-off in December 2024, aiming (but not succeeding) to eliminate its conglomerate discount and unlock shareholder value by listing Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette separately.
Following Telecom Italia's strategic unwinding, Vivendi incurred over €2 billion in losses but recovered nearly €1 billion in cash through divestments, highlighting its shift toward portfolio streamlining and deleveraging.
Vivendi now operates as a focused investment holding with UMG comprising over 60% of its asset base, but high concentration and equity beta expose the group to significant portfolio risk.


Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

<ul>
<li>Telefónica is nearing completion of its Latin American divestment strategy, unlocking capital from low-margin markets and reducing geopolitical risk, with €2.5 billion equity value estimated for remaining Hispam units.</li>
<li>A conservative 4x EV/EBITDA multiple applied to Hispam subsidiaries yields a fair value of €5.06 per share, while a prudent €4.50 target reflects geopolitical and execution risk buffers.</li>
<li>Proceeds from disposals strengthen Telefónica’s balance sheet, support its 7% dividend yield, and enable reinvestment into high-growth segments like Tech and fibercos, enhancing long-term shareholder value and operating efficiency.</li>
</ul>


Telefónica is nearing completion of its Latin American divestment strategy, unlocking capital from low-margin markets and reducing geopolitical risk, with €2.5 billion equity value estimated for remaining Hispam units.
A conservative 4x EV/EBITDA multiple applied to Hispam subsidiaries yields a fair value of €5.06 per share, while a prudent €4.50 target reflects geopolitical and execution risk buffers.
Proceeds from disposals strengthen Telefónica’s balance sheet, support its 7% dividend yield, and enable reinvestment into high-growth segments like Tech and fibercos, enhancing long-term shareholder value and operating efficiency.


Telefónica: Execution and Valuation Update

<ul>
<li>In February 2022, Vivendi will file a public tender offer for all Lagardère shares at €24.10/share, identical to the price per share paid to Amber Capital.</li>
<li>Assuming some recovery in travel retail, the implied multiple of the publishing division would be 5.5x EV/22e EBITDA, which is cheap in my view. Comparables are trading at 6.6x.</li>
<li>The share price has gone below the offer price for the first time since 9 December. The 0.2% gross spread is still tight, but worth monitoring in case it widens.</li>
</ul>


In February 2022, Vivendi will file a public tender offer for all Lagardère shares at €24.10/share, identical to the price per share paid to Amber Capital.
Assuming some recovery in travel retail, the implied multiple of the publishing division would be 5.5x EV/22e EBITDA, which is cheap in my view. Comparables are trading at 6.6x.
The share price has gone below the offer price for the first time since 9 December. The 0.2% gross spread is still tight, but worth monitoring in case it widens.


Vivendi/Lagardère: A Good Deal for Bolloré

Spain

Promotora de Informaciones S.A. (Prisa) is a Spanish and Portuguese-language business group. The Company operates in the fields of education, information and entertainment through its newspaper and brands. Prisa also prints books and commercial brochures, operates radio stations, music recording studios and publishing businesses.

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Promotora De Informaciones Sa (PRS SM)

Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Telefónica: Execution and Valuation Update

Telefónica's Latin American divestment strategy nears completion, unlocking capital, reducing risk, and strengthening balance sheet for...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Vivendi/Lagardère: A Good Deal for Bolloré

In February 2022, Vivendi will file a public tender offer at €24.10/share (price paid to Amber Capital). Whether Bolloré will able to turn...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

​Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Telefónica: Execution and Valuation Update

​Telefónica's Latin American divestment strategy nears completion, unlocking capital, reducing risk, and strengthening balance sheet for...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Vivendi/Lagardère: A Good Deal for Bolloré

In February 2022, Vivendi will file a public tender offer at €24.10/share (price paid to Amber Capital). Whether Bolloré will able to turn...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...

Telefónica's Latin American divestment strategy nears completion, unlocking capital, reducing risk, and strengthening balance sheet for...