Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

PTT Exploration & Production P / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We have revised down our 2025-27E core profit forecasts by 3-6% following a downward revision of our Dubai crude oil price assumptions, reflecting the potential negative impact of the trade war on oil demand and prices.</li><li>Core profit in 1Q25E is expected to have declined YoY and QoQ, with unit margins projected to trend downward in 2Q (due to a sharp drop in oil prices) and 4Q (owing to the lagging effect on gas prices).</li><li>We expect 2-year core EPS (2025-27E) to post a -4.2% CAGR.</li></ul>

We have revised down our 2025-27E core profit forecasts by 3-6% following a downward revision of our Dubai crude oil price assumptions, reflecting the potential negative impact of the trade war on oil demand and prices.Core profit in 1Q25E is expected to have declined YoY and QoQ, with unit margins projected to trend downward in 2Q (due to a sharp drop in oil prices) and 4Q (owing to the lagging effect on gas prices).We expect 2-year core EPS (2025-27E) to post a -4.2% CAGR.

Ptt Exploration and Production - Expect Lackluster 1Q25E Profit; Weak Momentum in 2025-27E

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The weakness in DELTA and ADVANC, along with a lack of new market catalysts, weighed on the SET.</li><li>However, the index appears to have raised its support zone to 1,271–1,260 points, up from the previous 1,250–1,230 range.</li><li>We therefore maintain our buy-on-dips, sell-on-rallies strategy, as the index still has limited upside and requires a clearer bullish confirmation.</li></ul>

The weakness in DELTA and ADVANC, along with a lack of new market catalysts, weighed on the SET.However, the index appears to have raised its support zone to 1,271–1,260 points, up from the previous 1,250–1,230 range.We therefore maintain our buy-on-dips, sell-on-rallies strategy, as the index still has limited upside and requires a clearer bullish confirmation.

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. December 4, 2025

<ul><li>We expect 4Q24E and 2024E core profit and net profit to be unremarkable, pressured by a declining margin per unit.</li><li>We maintain our view that 2-year core EPS (2025-26E) will contract at an average of a -8% CAGR, underperforming the sector due to a downward trend in the margin per unit and slower growth in petroleum sales volume.</li><li>We maintain our Neutral rating and the fair value (FV) of Bt139.89, reflecting the weak oil market amid the oversupply trend and demand risks stemming from the US-China trade war, as well as the declining trend for the company’s 2025-26E earnings.</li></ul>

We expect 4Q24E and 2024E core profit and net profit to be unremarkable, pressured by a declining margin per unit.We maintain our view that 2-year core EPS (2025-26E) will contract at an average of a -8% CAGR, underperforming the sector due to a downward trend in the margin per unit and slower growth in petroleum sales volume.We maintain our Neutral rating and the fair value (FV) of Bt139.89, reflecting the weak oil market amid the oversupply trend and demand risks stemming from the US-China trade war, as well as the declining trend for the company’s 2025-26E earnings.

PTT Exploration and Production - Expect Unremarkable 4Q24E and 2024E Earnings

<ul><li>PTTEP has announced a 3% increase in its expenditures plan (Capex and Opex) for 2025-29E compared to the previous plan, along with a lower petroleum sales volume growth target of a 3.4% CAGR (vs.  +4.9% CAGR during 2024-28E).</li><li>We have revised down the net profit estimates for 2024-25E by 2% and 4%, respectively, while maintaining the 2026E net profit forecast, reflecting the updated 5-year plan.</li><li>The 2-year core EPS estimate is now revised downward to a -6% CAGR, underperforming the sector, owing to a downward trend in unit margins.</li></ul>

PTTEP has announced a 3% increase in its expenditures plan (Capex and Opex) for 2025-29E compared to the previous plan, along with a lower petroleum sales volume growth target of a 3.4% CAGR (vs.  +4.9% CAGR during 2024-28E).We have revised down the net profit estimates for 2024-25E by 2% and 4%, respectively, while maintaining the 2026E net profit forecast, reflecting the updated 5-year plan.The 2-year core EPS estimate is now revised downward to a -6% CAGR, underperforming the sector, owing to a downward trend in unit margins.

Ptt Exploration and Production -5-Year Expenditures Plan and Petroleum Sales Target

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Seven stocks remain, and seven stocks added to our portfolio</li>
<li>Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 177% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 27%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Seven stocks remain, and seven stocks added to our portfolio
Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 177% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 27%


Thailand

PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited explores for crude oil and natural gas, develops fields for production, and produces oil and natural gas. The Company is a subsidiary of the Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

PTT Exploration & Production P (PTTEP-R TB)

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PTT Exploration & Production P (PTTEP-R TB)

Ptt Exploration and Production - Expect Lackluster 1Q25E Profit; Weak Momentum in 2025-27E

Core profit in 1Q25E is expected to have declined YoY and QoQ, with unit margins projected to trend downward in 2Q (due to a sharp drop in oil prices)

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. December 4, 2025

The weakness in DELTA and ADVANC, along with a lack of new market catalysts, weighed on the SET.However, the index appears to have raised its...

Krungthai XSpring

PTT Exploration and Production - Expect Unremarkable 4Q24E and 2024E Earnings

We maintain our Neutral rating and the fair value (FV) of Bt139.89, reflecting the weak oil market amid the oversupply trend and demand risks...

Krungthai XSpring

Ptt Exploration and Production -5-Year Expenditures Plan and Petroleum Sales Target

PTTEP has announced a 3% increase in its expenditures plan (Capex and Opex) for 2025-29E compared to the previous plan, along with a lower...

Krungthai XSpring

The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 42

We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a...

A. Stotz Investment Research

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