Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nearly halfway through the review period, we see 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, and 9 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and vice versa.</li>
<li>Financials are poised to be the biggest gainers in the reshuffle with 6 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and 5 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap.</li>
<li>Over the last 6 months, stocks expected to migrate upward have outperformed stocks that are expected to migrate downward., though there has been a downward drift this year.</li>
</ul>


Nearly halfway through the review period, we see 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, and 9 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and vice versa.
Financials are poised to be the biggest gainers in the reshuffle with 6 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and 5 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap.
Over the last 6 months, stocks expected to migrate upward have outperformed stocks that are expected to migrate downward., though there has been a downward drift this year.


India: AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2023)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>In the third and last part of our trilogy on Asian AT1s, we turn our focus to AT1s in Asian emerging markets (EMs) including India, Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand.</li><li>Compared with that of Chinese G-SIBs and Asian DMs, the return predictability of AT1s in Asian EMs are lower.</li><li>Hence, our analytical approach in Asian EM AT1s will be more “bottom-up”.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In the third and last part of our trilogy on Asian AT1s, we turn our focus to AT1s in Asian emerging markets (EMs) including India, Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand.Compared with that of Chinese G-SIBs and Asian DMs, the return predictability of AT1s in Asian EMs are lower.Hence, our analytical approach in Asian EM AT1s will be more “bottom-up”.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the capital market.  The cause for concern is the BJP’s promise to the UP electorate to waive off all farm loans and provide fresh loans at zero per cent interest. Media, capital market analysts and prominent bankers have jumped on the bandwagon of moral hazard, ruining the loan payment discipline amongst farmers and apprehensions that the sacrosanct fiscal deficit may be breached as a consequence of such ‘populist’ policies. The BJP electoral promise raises some issues which need to be explored further on whether the central government has the fiscal space to provide for a total farm waiver and whether the criticism of moral hazard is credible.

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the capital market.  The cause for concern is the BJP’s promise to the UP electorate to waive off all farm loans and provide fresh loans at zero per cent interest. Media, capital market analysts and prominent bankers have jumped on the bandwagon of moral hazard, ruining the loan payment discipline amongst farmers and apprehensions that the sacrosanct fiscal deficit may be breached as a consequence of such ‘populist’ policies. The BJP electoral promise raises some issues which need to be explored further on whether the central government has the fiscal space to provide for a total farm waiver and whether the criticism of moral hazard is credible.

U.P. Loan Waiver: 'Populist' or a Necessity?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

The collapse of lending in India remains well in place in January where annual growth is running at an anemic 3.3%. This is the same as in December last year, and lower than in November. To us, it does not feel like India is anywhere near a post-demonetization boom in credit, as some are expecting. The reality is that companies will see more stress, economic growth will worsen, and banks will face greater NPLs. India – Credit growth (% ch YoY)<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/022/174/original/daniel%201.png?1488984550" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="22174"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: CEIC</div>What may be more of a surprise is that…

The collapse of lending in India remains well in place in January where annual growth is running at an anemic 3.3%. This is the same as in December last year, and lower than in November. To us, it does not feel like India is anywhere near a post-demonetization boom in credit, as some are expecting. The reality is that companies will see more stress, economic growth will worsen, and banks will face greater NPLs. India – Credit growth (% ch YoY)Source: CEICWhat may be more of a surprise is that…

India's Lending Is Still Painfully Low in January

Since India’s demonetization, the government has lowered GDP forecasts, the Reserve Bank of India has signaled a less accommodative stance, and the proposed recapitazliation of ailing public sector banks is being curtailed. Perhaps there will be less flow-through on the budget in execution, timing and magnitude? High non-performing loans and cratering loan growth was a feature of India’s banks before all of the above, and we believe these will remain front and center still.  We include several…

Since India’s demonetization, the government has lowered GDP forecasts, the Reserve Bank of India has signaled a less accommodative stance, and the proposed recapitazliation of ailing public sector banks is being curtailed. Perhaps there will be less flow-through on the budget in execution, timing and magnitude? High non-performing loans and cratering loan growth was a feature of India’s banks before all of the above, and we believe these will remain front and center still.  We include several…

Anecdotes from India Mirror Poor Optimism: Bank Risk Remains

India

Punjab & Sind Bank is a commercial bank. The Bank offers its customers a wide range of banking products and services.

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Punjab & Sind Bank (PJSB IN)

India: AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2023)

Nearly halfway through the review period, we see 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, 9 from SmallCap to MidCap and vice versa....

Brian Freitas

Asian AT1s Part III – Picks on EM AT1s

In the third and last part of our trilogy on Asian AT1s, we turn our focus to AT1s in Asian emerging markets (EMs) including India, Indonesia,...

CMB International

U.P. Loan Waiver: 'Populist' or a Necessity?

Post the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) state elections, alarm bells have commenced tolling in the...

Hemindra Hazari

India's Lending Is Still Painfully Low in January

The collapse of lending in India remains well in place in January where annual growth is running at an anemic 3.3%. This is the same as in December...

Daniel Tabbush

Anecdotes from India Mirror Poor Optimism: Bank Risk Remains

Since India’s demonetization, the government has lowered GDP forecasts, the Reserve Bank of India has signaled a less accommodative stance, and the...

Daniel Tabbush

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