Forensic Analyst

Jason Yap, CFA

Forensic Accounting

Venustech Group Inc A / Forensic Accounting

China's cybersecurity market growth is set to reaccelerate given increased digitisation of the economy, emphasis on data security, and increase in cybersecurity spending.  While pandemic disruptions had led to an inevitable slowdown in 2020, recent cybersecurity spending trends by corporates and government bodies suggest a cyclical rebound. 
In the First of this Three part SK Originals series, we discuss how China's Company Accounting Standard No. 14 - Revenue ("CAS No. 14")'s application and consequent changes in accounting policy could result in material changes to the revenue recognition policy of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/venustech-group-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2773:1" rel="noopener">Venustech Group Inc A (002439 CH)</a>, such as changing the timing of revenue recognition and the amount being recognised across the company's various revenue segments.  
Most Chinese software companies started adopting CAS No. 14 in 2020.  Broadly, the net impact of CAS No. 14 is that recognition of software product revenue shifts from from multiple milestones based on a percentage of delivery completion to the transfer of actual control of the software products to customers, subject to specific terms of contract and management judgement. 
We also discuss the materiality threshold used to identify the listed software companies that have made changes in lieu of CAS No. 14, the key implications, and what this all means for Venustech with reference to industry dynamics, relative valuation, and company fundamentals.
We are constructive on Venustech's prospects given its market leading position in software products, security operation centers and related services.  At forward P/E of 21.9x and market leading ROE and operating margin relative to peer average, we believe that Venustech is attractively valued.

China's cybersecurity market growth is set to reaccelerate given increased digitisation of the economy, emphasis on data security, and increase in cybersecurity spending.  While pandemic disruptions had led to an inevitable slowdown in 2020, recent cybersecurity spending trends by corporates and government bodies suggest a cyclical rebound. 
In the First of this Three part SK Originals series, we discuss how China's Company Accounting Standard No. 14 - Revenue ("CAS No. 14")'s application and consequent changes in accounting policy could result in material changes to the revenue recognition policy of Venustech Group Inc A (002439 CH), such as changing the timing of revenue recognition and the amount being recognised across the company's various revenue segments.  
Most Chinese software companies started adopting CAS No. 14 in 2020.  Broadly, the net impact of CAS No. 14 is that recognition of software product revenue shifts from from multiple milestones based on a percentage of delivery completion to the transfer of actual control of the software products to customers, subject to specific terms of contract and management judgement. 
We also discuss the materiality threshold used to identify the listed software companies that have made changes in lieu of CAS No. 14, the key implications, and what this all means for Venustech with reference to industry dynamics, relative valuation, and company fundamentals.
We are constructive on Venustech's prospects given its market leading position in software products, security operation centers and related services.  At forward P/E of 21.9x and market leading ROE and operating margin relative to peer average, we believe that Venustech is attractively valued. 

Accounting Standards Series - CAS No. 14 Impact on China Software Companies - Venustech (2439 CH)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A / Event-Driven

Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A

<ul>
<li>With 85% of the review period complete, we see 11 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> in June.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 1.2% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.3bn (US$1bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes despite large flows from the National Team into ETFs tracking the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>. That support for the potential deletes will reverse.</li>
</ul>


With 85% of the review period complete, we see 11 changes for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) in June.
We estimate one-way turnover of 1.2% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.3bn (US$1bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes despite large flows from the National Team into ETFs tracking the CSI 300 Index. That support for the potential deletes will reverse.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Despite ETF Inflows

<ul>
<li>There were a few rebalance announcements in the last week and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and STAR100 Index rebalances were implemented at the close on Friday.</li>
<li>There are a lot of rebalances that will be implemented at the close on the coming Thursday and Friday.</li>
<li>Another big week of inflows for onshore China ETFs with Central Huijin likely behind the big flows to ETFs tracking the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There were a few rebalance announcements in the last week and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index rebalances were implemented at the close on Friday.
There are a lot of rebalances that will be implemented at the close on the coming Thursday and Friday.
Another big week of inflows for onshore China ETFs with Central Huijin likely behind the big flows to ETFs tracking the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, A50, STTF, LowVol30, Value Up

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> family of indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, the KRX New Deal Index and a global index ends on 31 January.</li>
<li>The January rebalance of the IDX30 and LQ45 indices will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 January.</li>
<li>There have been huge inflows into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> ETFs for another week. This will increase the impact on the index changes at the next rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the NIFTY family of indices, Nikkei 225, STAR50, the KRX New Deal Index and a global index ends on 31 January.
The January rebalance of the IDX30 and LQ45 indices will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 January.
There have been huge inflows into the CSI 300 Index ETFs for another week. This will increase the impact on the index changes at the next rebalance.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

<ul>
<li>With three-quarters of the review period nearly complete, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500 Index</a> at the close on 14 June.</li>
<li>There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 9.1% at the June rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 5.34bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds and deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500 Index</a> have performed in line since August and the current setup appears attractive.</li>
</ul>


With three-quarters of the review period nearly complete, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) for the CSI 500 Index at the close on 14 June.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 9.1% at the June rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 5.34bn.
The potential adds and deletes and the CSI 500 Index have performed in line since August and the current setup appears attractive.


CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: High Turnover & Big Flow

China

Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc. develops and distributes cyber security products. The Company produces infrastructure security products, next generation information technology infrastructure protection products, big data intelligent security detection and control products, and others. Qi An Xin Technology Group also produces computer software and hardware products.

Qi An Xin Technology Group (688561 CH)

Accounting Standards Series - CAS No. 14 Impact on China Software Companies - Venustech (2439 CH)

In this SK Originals series, we discuss how CAS No. 14 Standards could affect the revenue recognition policy of Venustech, such as changing the...

Jason Yap, CFA

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Outperforming Despite ETF Inflows

The adds have outperformed the deleted by over 10% in the last month. Coming up to the end of the review period, there could be further positioning.

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, A50, STTF, LowVol30, Value Up

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: High Turnover & Big Flow

We forecast 50 changes in June leading to one-way turnover of 9.1% and one-way trade of CNY 5.34bn. There will be over 1x ADV to trade on 28...

Brian Freitas