European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The slowdown in the house market in the UK in the last 12 months has increased the likelihood of seeing more consolidation in the house-building sector.</li>
<li>Redrow's 24,565 plots have attracted a large buyer paying (with paper) a hefty premium to secure land. The land bank should cover house building production for just over four years. </li>
<li>I believe the deal will ultimately succeed, although the CMA may take a closer look thus delaying the deal beyond H2 2024. Gross spread is 3.4%.</li>
</ul>


The slowdown in the house market in the UK in the last 12 months has increased the likelihood of seeing more consolidation in the house-building sector.
Redrow's 24,565 plots have attracted a large buyer paying (with paper) a hefty premium to secure land. The land bank should cover house building production for just over four years. 
I believe the deal will ultimately succeed, although the CMA may take a closer look thus delaying the deal beyond H2 2024. Gross spread is 3.4%.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.</li>
<li>A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology</li>
</ul>


Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.
A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.
Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology


MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

<ul>
<li>Recent developments have continued to reinforce our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI).</li>
<li>There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Actionable Themes: 44 individual stock buy recommendations within Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials</li>
</ul>


Recent developments have continued to reinforce our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI).
There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into the early part of 2024.
Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Actionable Themes: 44 individual stock buy recommendations within Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials


Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Overall Bullish Outlook Intact

<ul>
<li>FTSE-250 constituent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vistry-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21858:1" rel="noopener">Vistry Group (VTY LN)</a> has agreed to buy rival <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/countryside-partnerships-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35428:1" rel="noopener">Countryside Partnerships (CSP LN)</a> in a recommended cash&amp;stock deal that values embattled Countryside at c.£1.25 billion (lower than previous offers).</li>
<li>Consideration is 1 CSP LN=0.255 VTY LN+60p, 9.1% premium, 7.0x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 1.3x P/Fwd BV, which seems cheap. The sector is pricing in many potential bad news.</li>
<li>Gross spread is +2.1%. It has only been negative during three days since the deal announcement. I would wait for the spread to become negative before taking a position. </li>
</ul>


FTSE-250 constituent Vistry Group (VTY LN) has agreed to buy rival Countryside Partnerships (CSP LN) in a recommended cash&amp;stock deal that values embattled Countryside at c.£1.25 billion (lower than previous offers).
Consideration is 1 CSP LN=0.255 VTY LN+60p, 9.1% premium, 7.0x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 1.3x P/Fwd BV, which seems cheap. The sector is pricing in many potential bad news.
Gross spread is +2.1%. It has only been negative during three days since the deal announcement. I would wait for the spread to become negative before taking a position. 


Vistry/Countryside Partnerships:  Agreed Offer

United Kingdom

Redrow plc operates as a home builder. The Company builds houses from its regional offices in England and Wales, in addition to having interests in commercial development and contracting services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Redrow PLC (RDW LN)

Barratt Redrow Plc, the Land Banker

The UK's housing market slowdown may lead to more consolidation in the house-building sector, as seen in this deal securing land for future...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

MSCI ACWI, EURO $STOXX 50, $TOPIX Remain Bullish. $ACWI holding above short-term support at $102 (last week's breakout level), though we remain...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Overall Bullish Outlook Intact

Upgrading Mexico $EWW to Overweight; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Technology Remains Global Leadership. 44 individual buys highlighted in Tech,...

Vermilion Research

Vistry/Countryside Partnerships: Agreed Offer

Vistry agreed to acquire the entire share capital of Countryside in a stock swap transaction via scheme of arrangement, at a lower price than that...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Barratt Redrow Plc, the Land Banker

​The UK's housing market slowdown may lead to more consolidation in the house-building sector, as seen in this deal securing land for future...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

MSCI ACWI, EURO $STOXX 50, $TOPIX Remain Bullish. $ACWI holding above short-term support at $102 (last week's breakout level), though we remain...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Mexico to Overweight; Technology Remains Global Leadership; Overall Bullish Outlook Intact

Upgrading Mexico $EWW to Overweight; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Technology Remains Global Leadership. 44 individual buys highlighted in Tech,...

Vermilion Research

Vistry/Countryside Partnerships: Agreed Offer

Vistry agreed to acquire the entire share capital of Countryside in a stock swap transaction via scheme of arrangement, at a lower price than that...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

The UK's housing market slowdown may lead to more consolidation in the house-building sector, as seen in this deal securing land for future...