Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qantas-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:677:1" rel="noopener">Qantas Airways (QAN AU)</a> (QAN) is enjoying the best time of its life on industry consolidation benefits, demand exceeding supply to many sectors, and flourishing air cargo  </li>
<li>Domestic Australia is an ironclad goldmine, with a benign competitive environment as the archrival is busy restructuring. International sector capacity deployment is picking up, but still deep in underserved territory     </li>
<li>Target price AUD6.58 (+23% UPSIDE), based on 7x CY2024 PE - long-term historical mean. AUD500 million share buyback should provide downside support </li>
</ul>



Qantas Airways (QAN AU) (QAN) is enjoying the best time of its life on industry consolidation benefits, demand exceeding supply to many sectors, and flourishing air cargo  
Domestic Australia is an ironclad goldmine, with a benign competitive environment as the archrival is busy restructuring. International sector capacity deployment is picking up, but still deep in underserved territory     
Target price AUD6.58 (+23% UPSIDE), based on 7x CY2024 PE - long-term historical mean. AUD500 million share buyback should provide downside support 


Qantas Airways (QAN AU | BUY | TP:AU$6.58): Smooth Operator

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Alliance Aviation Services / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The ACCC has raised concerns about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qantas-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:677:1" rel="noopener">Qantas Airways (QAN AU)</a> proposed acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>. The ACCC’s final decision is on 17 November.</li>
<li>Qantas knew a lengthy ACCC approval process was highly likely and committed to an additional special dividend in the SID to reflect this risk. </li>
<li>Qantas has its work cut out to address the ACCC concerns. Nevertheless, due to the selloff, the current price offers almost a free option on Qantas securing ACCC approval.</li>
</ul>


The ACCC has raised concerns about Qantas Airways (QAN AU) proposed acquisition of Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU). The ACCC’s final decision is on 17 November.
Qantas knew a lengthy ACCC approval process was highly likely and committed to an additional special dividend in the SID to reflect this risk. 
Qantas has its work cut out to address the ACCC concerns. Nevertheless, due to the selloff, the current price offers almost a free option on Qantas securing ACCC approval.


Alliance Aviation – Selloff Provides Optionality on ACCC Approval

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a> entered a SID with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qantas-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:677:1" rel="noopener">Qantas Airways (QAN AU)</a>. Shareholders will receive A$4.75 in Qantas shares for each Alliance share, 35.3% premium to 4 May close. </li>
<li>The key risk is approval from the ACCC, which will start a public review. On 5 April, the ACCC closed an investigation into Qantas’ acquisition of its 19.9% Alliance stake. </li>
<li>Alliance Aviation can pay an additional special cash dividend if ACCC approval takes time. The offer is attractive in the context of historical share prices and multiples.</li>
</ul>



Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU) entered a SID with Qantas Airways (QAN AU). Shareholders will receive A$4.75 in Qantas shares for each Alliance share, 35.3% premium to 4 May close. 
The key risk is approval from the ACCC, which will start a public review. On 5 April, the ACCC closed an investigation into Qantas’ acquisition of its 19.9% Alliance stake. 
Alliance Aviation can pay an additional special cash dividend if ACCC approval takes time. The offer is attractive in the context of historical share prices and multiples.


Qantas Aims to Fully Acquire Alliance Aviation

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qantas-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:677:1" rel="noopener">Qantas Airways (QAN AU)</a> has entered into a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02518444-2A1372231?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Scheme</a> to buy smaller airline <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Alliance shareholders will receive $4.75 in Qantas shares or a 35% premium to last close. The consideration implies an equity value of A$764.5mn and an enterprise value of A$919.2mn.</li>
<li>The Scheme is subject to shareholder and ACCC approval. The ACCC recently cleared Qantas'19.9% stake in Alliance after a three-year investigation.</li>
</ul>



Qantas Airways (QAN AU) has entered into a Scheme to buy smaller airline Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU).
Alliance shareholders will receive $4.75 in Qantas shares or a 35% premium to last close. The consideration implies an equity value of A$764.5mn and an enterprise value of A$919.2mn.
The Scheme is subject to shareholder and ACCC approval. The ACCC recently cleared Qantas'19.9% stake in Alliance after a three-year investigation.


Qantas Enters Scheme With Alliance Aviation

Frontier and emerging markets (Vietnam)

Dylan Waller

Nomadic Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Today I am speaking with Simon Skerrett, COO and Co-founder of CommStream Capital Limited, Australia's first agricultural streaming company which partners with progressive farmers to provide capital solutions to fund productivity growth and innovation.With drastic shortages of capital in Australian farming, CommStream leverages its industry expertise and relationships to bring farmers an overdue, innovative financing solution, which drives productivity growth and helps fund generational…

Today I am speaking with Simon Skerrett, COO and Co-founder of CommStream Capital Limited, Australia's first agricultural streaming company which partners with progressive farmers to provide capital solutions to fund productivity growth and innovation.With drastic shortages of capital in Australian farming, CommStream leverages its industry expertise and relationships to bring farmers an overdue, innovative financing solution, which drives productivity growth and helps fund generational…

CommStream Capital Limited Interview: Insight From Australia's First Agricultural Streaming Company

Australia

Regional Express Holdings Limited offers scheduled air passenger and freight transportation services within Australia.

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Regional Express Holdings (REX AU)

Qantas Airways (QAN AU | BUY | TP:AU$6.58): Smooth Operator

Qantas Airways thrives due to industry consolidation, high demand, and successful air cargo operations. The future remains bright and the current...

Mohshin Aziz

Alliance Aviation – Selloff Provides Optionality on ACCC Approval

Qantas has its work cut out to address the ACCC concerns. Nevertheless, due to the selloff, the current price offers almost a free option on Qantas...

Arun George

Qantas Aims to Fully Acquire Alliance Aviation

Shareholders will receive A$4.75 in Qantas shares for each Alliance share. ACCC approval is the key risk. At the last close, the gross spread to...

Arun George

Qantas Enters Scheme With Alliance Aviation

Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 7.9%/16.8%, assuming this Scheme takes six months to complete. That looks like a reasonable entry point.

David Blennerhassett

CommStream Capital Limited Interview: Insight From Australia's First Agricultural Streaming Company

Today I am speaking with Simon Skerrett, COO and Co-founder of CommStream Capital Limited, Australia's first agricultural streaming company which...

Nomadic Equity

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Qantas Airways (QAN AU | BUY | TP:AU$6.58): Smooth Operator

​Qantas Airways thrives due to industry consolidation, high demand, and successful air cargo operations. The future remains bright and the current...

Mohshin Aziz

Alliance Aviation – Selloff Provides Optionality on ACCC Approval

Qantas has its work cut out to address the ACCC concerns. Nevertheless, due to the selloff, the current price offers almost a free option on Qantas...

Arun George

Qantas Aims to Fully Acquire Alliance Aviation

Shareholders will receive A$4.75 in Qantas shares for each Alliance share. ACCC approval is the key risk. At the last close, the gross spread to...

Arun George

Qantas Enters Scheme With Alliance Aviation

Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 7.9%/16.8%, assuming this Scheme takes six months to complete. That looks like a reasonable entry point.

David Blennerhassett

CommStream Capital Limited Interview: Insight From Australia's First Agricultural Streaming Company

Today I am speaking with Simon Skerrett, COO and Co-founder of CommStream Capital Limited, Australia's first agricultural streaming company which...

Nomadic Equity

Qantas Airways thrives due to industry consolidation, high demand, and successful air cargo operations. The future remains bright and the current...