Nicolas Van Broekhoven

CrossASEAN Research

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>Last month a new options program was announced, board members have two milestones to meet by 8/4/2024: get the stock over 0.45 SGD (50% vesting) &amp; 0.60 SGD (50% vesting)</li>
<li>Rex's production in Oman has disappointed but AGM commentary makes us believe the worst is now behind us. A recent Straits Times interview confirms 20K BPD remains the LT target.</li>
<li>Rex has instituted a good dividend policy and should now max out its 10% annual buyback authorization before dividends are paid later in FY22; win-win situation for shareholders and board.</li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rex-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17074:1" rel="noopener">Rex International Holding (REXI SP)</a> will report results around 25/2/2022; we expect a major 2H21 performance inflection as the Norwegian Brage field cash flow is included from 01/01/2021.</li>
<li>According to a press release on 13/1/22 the company is actively applying to uplist from Catalist to the mainboard. We see no reason why SGX should not grant this application.</li>
<li>Rex's Oman production has disappointed in 4Q21 but cash flow-wise shortfall should be made up by higher oil prices and Brage. Maiden dividend announcement should be forthcoming.</li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rex-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17074:1" rel="noopener">Rex International Holding (REXI SP)</a> reported FY21 results in late February which showed a dramatic improvement over FY20 due to rising oil prices and increased production</li>
<li>Accounting wise the picture was muddied by auditor fantasy valuation exercises which understated FY21 results. FY22 to be a "clean" year where positive cash flow impact becomes clearer to market.</li>
<li>Since 08/03/22 Rex trades on the SGX mainboard and remains the best pure-play oil bet in the Singapore market. Current oil prices indicate an FY22 cash flow bonanza.</li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rex-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17074:1" rel="noopener">Rex International Holding (REXI SP)</a> has been a forgotten oil stock on the SGX. Last year we tried to highlight the opportunity to investors already <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rex-int-from-virtual-drilling-tech-play-to-pumping-oil-in-oman-overlooked-bargain-m-a-candidate" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41575" rel="noopener">Rex Int: From Virtual Drilling Tech Play to Pumping Oil in Oman; Overlooked Bargain + M&amp;A Candidate</a>.As we learned with our bullish drumbeat on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ug-healthcare-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:254:1" rel="noopener">UG Healthcare (UGHC SP)</a> a few years ago sometimes Mr. Market can be a bit slow. Recall, we were bullish on UGHC all of 2018/2019 highlighting its massive undervaluation, and then... it went up 1,000%+ last year. Rex reminds us of UGHC in 2019. Rex is not guaranteed to go up 1,000% but it has a pathway there (think oil at 100 USD/bbl) and should AT LEAST double in 2021. This is a high conviction idea.Below the fold, we give the math of how increased production at its Yumna field in Oman should lead to massive cash flows and earnings from 1H21 onwards. Once market participants "get it" and see the cash gush in this has to lead to a re-rating. If Mr.Market remains asleep an industry player will almost certainly come to the table and acquire Rex outright. Given the age of the main shareholders, this is more a question of "when" rather than "if".

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rex-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17074:1" rel="noopener">Rex International Holding (REXI SP)</a> has fallen back from 0.25 SGD last month to below 0.19 SGD recently. This is despite oil prices staying around 70 USD/bbl and Rex reporting fantastic 1H21 results.Rex also announced that after Oman and Norway it is studying to develop some oil fields in Malaysia. Rex is looking to diversify its production base so they are less dependent on one country. Cash is literally gushing in from its Oman assets and will accelerate in 2H21 as its Norwegian purchase of the Brage field will be accounted for in 2H.Rex's stock is up 29% YTD but remains deep value on an absolute basis and relative to peers such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hibiscus-petroleum-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20775:1" rel="noopener">Hibiscus Petroleum (HIBI MK)</a>. We continue to believe Rex will at least double from current levels as at some point the growing cash flows can no longer be ignored by investors. The eventual end-game has not changed: given the age of the principal shareholders, we believe Rex will see a lot of corporate activity going forward. We are unsure of the timeframe and shape/form this takes (spin-off, partial divestments, partial return of capital, one-off dividends, large share buybacks, 100% sale to different owners, etc).

Singapore

Rex International Holding Limited is a production and exploration oil company with concessions in Norway, UAE, Oman, and the US.

Rex International Holding - REXI SP

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