Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

Oil remains in a tug-of-war between fundamentals and a fickle sentiment in the global financial markets.
Brent and WTI futures settled at fresh four-month-highs of $68.50/barrel and $59.98/barrel mid-week, but had erased all the gains -- and some more -- by Friday's close.  However, technicals point to a pivot point in crude futures, with the 50-day moving average crossing over the 100 DMA last week. That's typically a buy signal, but a sustained rally from the current levels is hard to see in the near-term.
Meanwhile, there were some interesting and unexpected outcomes from a high-profile OPEC/non-OPEC monitoring committee meeting in Baku on March 18. Among them were signs of a divergence in the views of Saudi Arabia and Russia, de facto leaders of the 24-producer alliance curbing supply to rebalance the market.
 What explains Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih’s new hawkish stance and is the OPEC and non-OPEC partnership under some strain? Our short answer: No. We lay out our perspective of the evolving dynamics in the producers' alliance, which is important to understanding the likely path of their collaboration.

Oil remains in a tug-of-war between fundamentals and a fickle sentiment in the global financial markets.
Brent and WTI futures settled at fresh four-month-highs of $68.50/barrel and $59.98/barrel mid-week, but had erased all the gains -- and some more -- by Friday's close.  However, technicals point to a pivot point in crude futures, with the 50-day moving average crossing over the 100 DMA last week. That's typically a buy signal, but a sustained rally from the current levels is hard to see in the near-term.
Meanwhile, there were some interesting and unexpected outcomes from a high-profile OPEC/non-OPEC monitoring committee meeting in Baku on March 18. Among them were signs of a divergence in the views of Saudi Arabia and Russia, de facto leaders of the 24-producer alliance curbing supply to rebalance the market.
 What explains Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih’s new hawkish stance and is the OPEC and non-OPEC partnership under some strain? Our short answer: No. We lay out our perspective of the evolving dynamics in the producers' alliance, which is important to understanding the likely path of their collaboration.

Weekly Oil Views: Another Crude Rally Fails to Stick as Technicals Signal a Pivot Point

Emerging Market Economist, Emerginomics

Tatiana Orlova

Emerging Market Economist

Emerginomics

Cross Asset Strategy

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The recent softening of the Fed’s monetary stance and hopes that the US and China should reach a new trade agreement in March have boosted demand for EM currencies. We think that the Central Bank of Russia is one of those EM banks that may switch into an easing mode before the year is out. Besides, the oil market is in an upbeat mood again. Although the US is determined to impose further “biting” sanctions against Russia, a few months delay is likely due to the busy domestic agenda of the US Congress, and the current focus on more pressing issues. Given these conditions, we are bullish on the rouble in the short term. We are also expecting further gains by Russia’s OFZs and sovereign Eurobonds, especially if the oil rally continues.
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The recent softening of the Fed’s monetary stance and hopes that the US and China should reach a new trade agreement in March have boosted demand for EM currencies. We think that the Central Bank of Russia is one of those EM banks that may switch into an easing mode before the year is out. Besides, the oil market is in an upbeat mood again. Although the US is determined to impose further “biting” sanctions against Russia, a few months delay is likely due to the busy domestic agenda of the US Congress, and the current focus on more pressing issues. Given these conditions, we are bullish on the rouble in the short term. We are also expecting further gains by Russia’s OFZs and sovereign Eurobonds, especially if the oil rally continues.


Russian Assets to Benefit from Higher Oil Prices and Busy US Congressional Agenda

Russia

Rosneft Oil Company produces and markets petroleum products. The Company explores, extracts, refines, and markets oil and natural gas. Rosneft produces oil in Western Siberia, Sakhalin, the North Caucasus, and the Arctic regions of Russia.

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Rosneft Oil PJSC (ROSN LI)

Weekly Oil Views: Another Crude Rally Fails to Stick as Technicals Signal a Pivot Point

Oil remains in a tug-of-war between fundamentals and a fickle sentiment in the global financial markets. Brent and WTI futures settled at fresh...

Vandana Hari

Russian Assets to Benefit from Higher Oil Prices and Busy US Congressional Agenda

The recent softening of the Fed’s monetary stance and hopes that the US and China should reach a new trade agreement in March have boosted demand...

Tatiana Orlova

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)