Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.</li>
<li>Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields </li>
<li>Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI</li>
</ul>


We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.
Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields 
Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI


U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>FOMC's median Goldilocks projections entail faster growth, lower inflation, but rates staying higher for longer. With the fiscal booster, real GDP is likely to grow over 4%QoQsaar in Q3CY23. </li>
<li>A 25bp hike on 1st Nov'23, coupled with fiscal retrenchment (as spending restraints kick in), and resumed student loan repayments eating into PCE, will cause an abrupt contraction in Q4CY23. </li>
<li>With USD set to stay strong (as ECB and BoE face less tightening pressure), net exports will be a drag too, and a short US recession will last into Q1CY24.</li>
</ul>


FOMC's median Goldilocks projections entail faster growth, lower inflation, but rates staying higher for longer. With the fiscal booster, real GDP is likely to grow over 4%QoQsaar in Q3CY23. 
A 25bp hike on 1st Nov'23, coupled with fiscal retrenchment (as spending restraints kick in), and resumed student loan repayments eating into PCE, will cause an abrupt contraction in Q4CY23. 
With USD set to stay strong (as ECB and BoE face less tightening pressure), net exports will be a drag too, and a short US recession will last into Q1CY24.


FOMC Goldilocks Projections Overlook Fiscal Drag & Student Loan Repayments

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly weekend Positioning Watch.</li><li>The Central Bank bonanza week has come to a close, with only a few localized surprises in policy decisions.</li><li>It appears that only a handful of bold (or perhaps desperate) governors are willing to stand up to the market’s pressure these days.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly weekend Positioning Watch.The Central Bank bonanza week has come to a close, with only a few localized surprises in policy decisions.It appears that only a handful of bold (or perhaps desperate) governors are willing to stand up to the market’s pressure these days.

Positioning Watch: Higher for longer vs Lower for longer?

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Fed Chairman Powell delivered a very powerful statement this week on the need to retain price stability. As a result, investors are giving up their fight to think otherwise.</li>
<li>We focus on France’s horrible PMI data and explain how we may see a repetition of the US retail sales slump witnessed in December 2018. </li>
<li>With central bankers embracing the ‘higher for longer’ narrative, real yields will start to hurt. </li>
</ul>


Fed Chairman Powell delivered a very powerful statement this week on the need to retain price stability. As a result, investors are giving up their fight to think otherwise.
We focus on France’s horrible PMI data and explain how we may see a repetition of the US retail sales slump witnessed in December 2018. 
With central bankers embracing the ‘higher for longer’ narrative, real yields will start to hurt. 


The Weekly Market Monitor – Are Central Banks Finally Breaking Sentiment?

<ul>
<li>We examine asset class performance over 1, 2, 3, and 6 months after a 15%+ oil price increase in one month and a 25%+ spike in three months.</li>
<li>Historically, oil price shocks were not detrimental to stocks. Returns were positive for all periods after the shock. More importantly, returns were higher after oil shocks than the ‘normal’ </li>
<li>Gold also outperformed, and interestingly, oil continued to spike, causing additional headaches for central banks. Mainly since spiking oil prices are indeed reflected in higher inflation.</li>
</ul>


We examine asset class performance over 1, 2, 3, and 6 months after a 15%+ oil price increase in one month and a 25%+ spike in three months.
Historically, oil price shocks were not detrimental to stocks. Returns were positive for all periods after the shock. More importantly, returns were higher after oil shocks than the ‘normal’ 
Gold also outperformed, and interestingly, oil continued to spike, causing additional headaches for central banks. Mainly since spiking oil prices are indeed reflected in higher inflation.


Understanding Oil Price Shocks: What to Expect from Asset Class Returns?

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

Odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar $DXY and Treasury yields...

Vermilion Research

FOMC Goldilocks Projections Overlook Fiscal Drag & Student Loan Repayments

Fueled by fiscal stimulus, RGDP to grow over 4%QoQsaar in Q4CY23, inducing a 25bp hike on 1stNov'23. Student loan repayments, spending restraints &...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Positioning Watch: Higher for longer vs Lower for longer?

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly weekend Positioning Watch. The Central Bank bonanza week has come to a close, with only a few...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Are Central Banks Finally Breaking Sentiment?

One-and-a-half hawkish central bank pauses spooked equity investors, who are running out of narratives to keep stocks from falling.

Jeroen Blokland

Understanding Oil Price Shocks: What to Expect from Asset Class Returns?

Oil price shocks push inflation higher and favor Gold as an asset class, but unlike what many believe, are not bad news for Equities!

Jeroen Blokland