Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Update to our transition to bullish risk hinges on SPX 3,650/30 on the next downside test. Below would see that new low, holding more bullish.</li>
<li>NKY, ASX, STI and Eurostoxx 50 met initial buy levels and now meeting reduce PT's. Yields and the USD are set to rise, inducing a fresh equity draw down.</li>
<li>Late October is our cycle window for an ideal equity cycle low where we plan to go long in a bigger way.</li>
</ul>

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Vermilion Research

Technical and Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>In last week's Compass (Sept. 27) we discussed our belief that market indexes could see a bounce or pause in selling, citing numerous oversold indexes/Sectors that were testing critical supports.</li>
<li>Supports included 3636 on the S&amp;P 500, $269 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $162 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>Supports held, and early indications suggest a bear market rally is brewing (at minimum), helped by short-term bearish engulfing patterns on the DXY and 10-year Treasury yield last Wednesday.</li>
</ul>

<ul>
<li>SPX bearish to 3,500/30 below 3,650 with sell resistance at 3,650 (bounce bet failed at 3,740). Early October low followed by a short squeeze.</li>
<li>Meeting/Exceeding key downside targets in oversold (RSI's due to bottom soon) Asia and Europe into an exhaustive down leg. </li>
<li>October transition: We favor overlapping our long basket into early to mid-October new lows. NKY, ASX, RTY layered longs and USD sell is on deck (USD front run).</li>
</ul>

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

<ul><li>The S&amp;P 500 had a great reaction in the second part of July and the first half of August, but now he's showing weak again.</li><li>The last high is perfectly aligned with a down-sloping trendline.</li><li>On the other side there is an interesting support close to 3,800. Is the index going to test that level again?</li></ul>

<ul>
<li>After a substantial rally, the S&amp;P500 was unable to break above its 200-day MA and market indexes have violated steep 5-week uptrends; we view this pullback as a critical test.</li>
<li>This is where we see if prior breakout levels/important moving averages hold and market indexes make a higher low, or if this was nothing more than a bear market rally.</li>
<li>Barring a Fed pivot, and with Treasury yields and the DXY inflecting higher (and potentially commodities, too), it increases the odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.</li>
</ul>

United States

Standard and Poor's 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941-43 base period.

S&P 500 - SPX INDEX

Description