Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was up 2.2% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 1.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 2.1%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 1.4%).</li><li>Energy Technology (13.5% of the index) was up 0.7%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.4% of the index) was up 2.2%, ClimateTech Mining was up 2.1%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.0% of index) was up 3.6%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: REE, NGPHF, LICY, SUNW, MVST, FTCI, ENG, GCEH, ORGN, IPWR</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 2.2% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 1.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 2.1%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 1.4%).Energy Technology (13.5% of the index) was up 0.7%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.4% of the index) was up 2.2%, ClimateTech Mining was up 2.1%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.0% of index) was up 3.6%.Top 10 Performers: REE, NGPHF, LICY, SUNW, MVST, FTCI, ENG, GCEH, ORGN, IPWR

Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Focus on Alto Ingredients, Inc. (ALTO)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is approaching 5783, which is the upper-end of an important target/resistance area we have discussed for over a month (5670-5783).</li>
<li>2007 SPX topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping (i.e.,5783)</li>
<li>SPX is "breaking out" which is bullish, but time and time again we have seen bull/bear traps (false breakouts/breakdowns) at major turning points. Bull trap confirmed on break below 5670</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is approaching 5783, which is the upper-end of an important target/resistance area we have discussed for over a month (5670-5783).
2007 SPX topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping (i.e.,5783)
SPX is "breaking out" which is bullish, but time and time again we have seen bull/bear traps (false breakouts/breakdowns) at major turning points. Bull trap confirmed on break below 5670


SPX Bull Trap Setting Up?; Neutral Outlook Intact; Keeping an Open Mind. Buys in Gold Miners

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The FOMC cut its Fed Funds rate by 50bp, acknowledging that enough progress has occurred toward reaching the 2% target for core PCE inflation, while the labor market has cooled.</li>
<li>We were right on inflation and direction of rates since 2021 (so have differed with the Fed). Now, we agree that two more 25bp rate cuts will occur in 2024. </li>
<li>Core PCE inflation will be slow to moderate further, so allowing only another 50bp of cuts by end-2024. The FF rate should end 2025 at 3.5%, as RGDP grows 2.5%. </li>
</ul>


The FOMC cut its Fed Funds rate by 50bp, acknowledging that enough progress has occurred toward reaching the 2% target for core PCE inflation, while the labor market has cooled.
We were right on inflation and direction of rates since 2021 (so have differed with the Fed). Now, we agree that two more 25bp rate cuts will occur in 2024. 
Core PCE inflation will be slow to moderate further, so allowing only another 50bp of cuts by end-2024. The FF rate should end 2025 at 3.5%, as RGDP grows 2.5%. 


US: FOMC's 50bp Cut Should Avert Recession But Keep Inflation Elevated

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks.</li>
<li>Using the 2007 SPX topping analog suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which gives the 5783 number.</li>
<li>As long as SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives,and this is the ideal time to do so.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks.
Using the 2007 SPX topping analog suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which gives the 5783 number.
As long as SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives,and this is the ideal time to do so.


SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was up 4.9% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 4.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 4.4%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 5.9%).</li><li>Energy Technology (13.7% of the index) was up 6.0%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.4% of the index) was up 6.5%, ClimateTech Mining was up 3.5%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (19.7% of index) was up 1.6%.</li><li style="text-align: left;">Top 10 Performers: GP, FTCI, GCEH, GEVO, SPI, SUNW, INVZ, SMR, GRB, GTEC</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 4.9% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 4.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 4.4%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 5.9%).Energy Technology (13.7% of the index) was up 6.0%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.4% of the index) was up 6.5%, ClimateTech Mining was up 3.5%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (19.7% of index) was up 1.6%.Top 10 Performers: GP, FTCI, GCEH, GEVO, SPI, SUNW, INVZ, SMR, GRB, GTEC

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on LSB Industries, Inc.

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Focus on Alto Ingredients, Inc. (ALTO)

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 2.2% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 2.1%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 1.4%).

Water Tower Research

SPX Bull Trap Setting Up?; Neutral Outlook Intact; Keeping an Open Mind. Buys in Gold Miners

$SPX Bull Trap Setting Up?; Neutral Outlook Intact as long as no weekly close > 5783; Keeping an Open Mind considering high yield spreads and MOVE...

Vermilion Research

US: FOMC's 50bp Cut Should Avert Recession But Keep Inflation Elevated

FOMC cuts rates by 50bp, predicts two more 25bp cuts in 2024 due to progress on inflation but cooling labor market. We expect FF rate to end 2025...

Prasenjit K. Basu

SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

$SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track if Below 5783. Still Neutral, prefer to sell...

Vermilion Research

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on LSB Industries, Inc.

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 4.9% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 4.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 4.4%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 5.9%).

Water Tower Research

Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Focus on Alto Ingredients, Inc. (ALTO)

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 2.2% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 2.1%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 1.4%).

Water Tower Research

SPX Bull Trap Setting Up?; Neutral Outlook Intact; Keeping an Open Mind. Buys in Gold Miners

$SPX Bull Trap Setting Up?; Neutral Outlook Intact as long as no weekly close > 5783; Keeping an Open Mind considering high yield spreads and MOVE...

Vermilion Research

US: FOMC's 50bp Cut Should Avert Recession But Keep Inflation Elevated

​FOMC cuts rates by 50bp, predicts two more 25bp cuts in 2024 due to progress on inflation but cooling labor market. We expect FF rate to end 2025...

Prasenjit K. Basu

SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

$SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track if Below 5783. Still Neutral, prefer to sell...

Vermilion Research

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on LSB Industries, Inc.

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 4.9% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 4.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 4.4%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 5.9%).

Water Tower Research

FOMC cuts rates by 50bp, predicts two more 25bp cuts in 2024 due to progress on inflation but cooling labor market. We expect FF rate to end 2025...